Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

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WHEN CHRIS MASSE SENDS YOU AN E-MAIL AT WORK, BE ON YOUR GUARD.

- 40% of companies surveyed investigated an email-based violation of privacy or data protection regulations in the past 12 months.
- 26% of companies surveyed terminated an employee for violating email policies in the last 12 months.
- 23% of U.S. companies surveyed said their business was impacted by the exposure of sensitive or embarrassing information in [...]

VP conditional probabilities

BetFair is running markets on both who will be the next vice president and who will be nominated by the two parties.
As we’ve discussed before in other contexts, one can divide two probabilities like these to obtain a conditional probability: e.g., if the Democrats put X on the ticket, they will win the general [...]

Demand forecasting systems: Spending a lot on software doesn’t guarantee success.

Product line demand forecasting stands as the proto-typical application for internal prediction markets. Internal prediction markets may have other uses, but the demand forecasting story is probably the most straightforward and has been most often discussed in articles on the topic.
When software vendors and consultants try to sell prediction market systems to business, both the [...]

WeatherBill contracts are financial instruments, regulated by the CFTC.


Via Tech Crunch, Weather Bill is now open for business. This is their ABOUT page:
WeatherBill sells Weather Contracts to eligible buyers. Weather Contracts can be used to protect your business from adverse weather conditions, by paying you when those adverse conditions occur. Some eligible buyers may also use WeatherBill to make speculative bets on the [...]

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