The app is available in the following countries:

Australia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

BetTornado has been designed specifically for the iPad, with different displays to cater for a variety of Sports Betting customers.

While the majority of users will find the simple ‘Bet Mode’ is all they really need, those who wish to trade the markets will find the specially designed ‘Trade Mode’ enables them to place bets very quickly and hedge profits or losses just as they would do with specialist trading software on a computer or laptop.

The extensive range of features has been designed by people with years of hands on experience trading the Betfair markets.

A third display, “Watch Mode” enables the user to choose individual selections from a variety of markets across different sports and load them all onto the same screen. Bets can then be placed on this screen as the desired odds are reached without having to keep checking different markets.

By including a ‘Training Mode’ which uses play money to place imaginary bets on Betfair, BetTornado also gives users a chance to learn how to use the software without risking losing real money.

http://twitter.com/BetTornado

John, I am calling on you to fix this problem before the story spreads outside of this forum [*] and takes on a life of its own.

[*] Last week, Midas Oracle offered a tribune to the disgruntled InTrade traders.

InTrade CEO John Delaney (today, February 8, 2011):

Mubarak Market Unwound

Tuesday, Feb 8, 2011

Dear Members,

RE: Hosni Mubarak to depart his current position as Pres. of Egypt.

I have considered this issue at length and have just authorized the unwinding of all trades relating to the settled Mubarak departure markets.

While this was done in compliance with Exchange and Contract Rules, it was motivated by my assessment that a significant disconnect between the intention of the market as assumed by the vast majority of you our members (and unbiased independent comments) and the clarified contract rules as published has occurred.
I am sincerely sorry for this and any inconvenience caused.

Without attempting to justify the above disconnect, it is an unfortunate reality that due to the often unique nature of the markets we list conflicts of assumed intent and ‘small print’ arise very occasionally.
We try really hard to make sure such eventualities never occur but alas they do and will so long as offer new markets.
We have listed almost 1,000,000 markets over the last decade and thankfully issues of this nature have been exceptionally rare.

Again I personally apologize for this matter but nonetheless assure you of my own determination and that of my Intrade colleagues to give you the very best service at the very best price.

Sincerely,

John Delaney
CEO
www.intrade.com

Let’s see how the affected traders appreciate this fortunate turnaround.

In the meantime, I ask for the resignation (or the firing) of Carl Wolfenden.

Well, I have come to the end of my wits here.

This is very sad. The reputation of a business such as Intrade is the lifeblood of this type of operation. This sort of arbitrary expiry does not build confidence and faith with potential and existing customers… I don’t believe anybody here except Blaze can follow the reasoning that was applied. Nor will people outside understand why a contract entitled “Will Hosni Mubarak depart as President of Egypt? Hosni Mubarak to depart his current position as Pres. of Egypt before midnight ET 28 Feb 2011″ has been expired…

Intrade has been arguing that this was the intention of the contract. How can this be? Just read the title. Nor can it be argued that this contract was settled in strict interpretation of the rules. The rule that “the contract will expire when the resignation or retirement is announced, regardless of when it takes effect” is effectively meaningless because it can be used to enforce expiry at any time on anyone. Moreover, it is in contradiction with the stated intention of the contract and as Carl has acknowledged it is in violation of another clarification on the same type of contract… This is obvious to everyone except Carl and John.

Anyway, I am not going to speculate further on what the reasons for the expiry were… Perhaps, JR got it right? Maybe Domer’s line of reasoning applies?

What I have done is to explore the legal avenues open to me. I have consulted an Irish lawyer who said that he sympathized with me but that it would be very difficult to pursue a case in Ireland because Irish courts generally decline to accept gambling-related litigation. The reason for this is that gambling (and this would be interpreted as gambling) is considered to be socially undesirable. He said suing Intrade would be considered tantamount to taking a prostitute to court for failing to perform the service that was purchased.

The only chance I would have in court in Ireland was if I could prove that Intrade was not only in breach of contract but actually committed fraud by engaging in insider trading. This obviously would not be very easy to prove in court…

So is that the end of the story then? For most customers it would appear that this would probably be the end of the road… No chance to litigate in Ireland because Intrade is unregulated and Irish courts do not accept gambling-related cases.

This lawyer advised me to settle the dispute in Germany. I entered into the contract in Germany which is part of the EU. As a consumer, I am entitled to address my grievances with an Irish company through the German court system. My German lawyer has started working on the case…

I have been left with no other choice here.

More.

Previously: InTrade has just settled their ‘Mubarak Departure’ contracts (even though the Egyptian dictator is still at the helm of the country, at publication time). — [CHARTS]

UPDATE: InTrade opens up a new set of ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction markets.

FINAL UPDATE: InTrade CEO John Delaney apologizes for the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction market scandal. – {Mubarak Market Unwound} – [VICTORY]

Frischer Wind mit neuem Kooperationspartner:

Die gexid GmbH begrüßt mit The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) einen weltweiten Markführer für Business Intelligence, Branchen- und Länderanalysen

Wir freuen uns sehr, Ihnen einen weiteren, wichtigen Integrator der gexid GmbH vorstellen zu dürfen: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) – ein weltweiter Marktführer für Business Intelligence, Branchen- und Länderanalysen. Als Marktforschungsinstitut der Economist Group, die das Wirtschaftsmagazin „The Economist“ herausgibt, wurde EIU im Jahr 1946 gegründet und verfügt mittlerweile über 40 Geschäftsstellen weltweit. Zu den Kunden zählen neben internationalen Unternehmen auch Finanzinstitute, Universitäten und staatliche Einrichtungen.

Die fundierten Analysen von EIU unterstützen Führungskräfte bei der Entscheidungsfindung und liefern zeitnahe und unabhängige Analysen zu weltweiten Marktrends und Geschäftsstrategien. Seit einigen Wochen kooperieren EIU und die gexid GmbH, um gemeinsam Entscheidungsträgern dynamische Updates für eine Vielzahl von Landes-, Branchen- und Managementanalysen anbieten zu können. Martin Schössler, Key Account Manager Deutschland, zur Kooperation: „Zusammen mit der gexid GmbH können wir Executives Business Intelligence praktisch in Echtzeit liefern; eine wunderbare komplementäre Ergänzungen zu unserem bestehenden Portfolio.“ Weitere Informationen finden Sie unter www.gexid.com und www.eiu.com.

„Brauchen wir häufigere Prognosen?“

Ökonomien fordern im Handelsblatt eine häufigere Aktualisierungen Konjunkturvorhersagen der Regierung

Auch Politiker erkennen allmählich, dass dynamische und aktuelle Prognosen enorm wichtig sind. Dem Handelsblatt vom 24.03.2009 gegenüber erklärt FDP-Vize Rainer Brüderle, dass die Bundesregierung in kürzeren Abständen offizielle Wachstumsprognosen abgeben solle. „Halbjahreszahlen sind schnell veraltet. Politische Entscheidungen müssen aber besonders in wechselvollen Zeiten wie diesen auf möglichst aktuellen Zahlen und Prognosen beruhen.“ so Rainer Brüderle. Selbst der Präsident des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung und Ratsmitglied Christoph Schmidt, der grundsätzlich zu Zurückhaltung mahnt, sei der Meinung: „Ob der Sachverständigenrat auch künftig nur einmal jährlich eine Prognose vorlegen sollte, müssen wir überdenken.”

Wir von der gexid GmbH können diese Forderung nur unterstreichen. Viele Verantwortliche in Wirtschaftsunternehmen haben bereits erkannt, dass nur einmal jährlich aktualisierte Prognosen, wie z.B. Absatz- oder Kreditausfallprognosen sowie  einmalige Studien, wie z.B. Mitarbeiter- oder Kundenzufriedenheitsstudien für wichtige Entscheidungen nicht mehr ausreichen. Insbesondere in turbulenten Zeiten sind häufigere Updates zwingend notwendig. Daher schätzen Kunden unsere tagesaktuellen Prognosen sehr – sei es für aktuelle Absatzprognosen oder als Barometer für die Mitarbeiter- oder Kundenzufriedenheit oder auch als Controlling-Tool für Werbe- und Kommunikationskampagnen.

Jedoch stimmen wir auch der Einschätzung von Bundesfinanzminister Peer Steinbrück (SPD) zu, dass seit einigen Wochen eine Art Prognosewettlauf der Konjunkturforscher herrsche.  Wie auch Steinbrück sehen wir darin einen Versuch, mit immer schlechteren Nachrichten Aufmerksamkeit erheischen zu wollen. Die gexid GmbH  hingegen profiliert sich nicht durch „optimistische“ oder „pessimistische“ Prognosen. Wir liefern „nur“ die Prognosen – und diese frühzeitig und präzise!

Veranstaltung der Steinbeis-Hochschule Berlin:

SMI Spring Workshop 2009 „Kollektive Intelligenz“

Am 26. und 27.März 2009 findet der von Prof. Dr. Andreas Aulinger (SMI School of Management and Innovation) organisierte Workshop „Kollektive Intelligenz – Ein Begriff, mehrere Phänomene und viele offene Fragen“ statt. Der mit namenhaften Vertretern der Community angekündigte Workshop wird in Kooperation mit dem Stuttgart Institute of Management and Technology (SIMT) durchgeführt. Unter anderem wird Max Pfeiffer (STZ Ferdinand-Steinbeis-Institut) Vordenker und Netzwerke auf dem Gebiet der Prognosemärkte vorstellen. Heiner Koppermann und Klaus Pampuch von der Firma SwarmWorks zeigen neue Methoden der Schwarmintelligenz.

Die  gexid GmbH, vertreten durch Herrn Dr. Bernd Ankenbrand, wird zum Thema „Experimente im Feld versus Experimente im Labor“ die Herausforderungen bei der Implementierung von Prognosebörsen in Unternehmensalltag präsentieren und einige erfolgreiche Referenzprojekte mit Kunden und Kooperationspartnern vorstellen. Weitere Infos finden Sie unter: www.steinbeis-hochschule.de

Topic Report:

Last but not least gibt es an dieser Stelle aktuelle Topic Ergebnisse sowie neue Topics aus den Bereichen Kultur, Unterhaltung und Wirtschaft:

Wie viele Besucher werden sich Watchman – Die Wächter am Startwochenende ansehen?

Kollektivprognose: 174.129 Besucher

Ergebnis: 199.225 Besucher

http://www.firstinsider.de/topic/Wie-viele-Besucher-werden-sich-Watchmen-Die-Waechter-am-Startwochenende-05-03-ansehen

Auf welchem Platz landet das Buch “Glück kommt selten allein …” von Eckart von Hirschhausen auf der Spiegel-Bestsellerliste Nr. 11/09?

Kollektivprognose: 1 Platz

Ergebnis: 1 Platz

http://www.firstinsider.de/topic/Auf-welchem-Platz-landet-das-Buch-Glueck-kommt-selten-allein-von-Eckart-von-Hirschhausen-auf-der-Spiegel-Bestsellerliste-Nr-11-09

Aktuell laufende Topics:

http://www.firstinsider.de/topic/Wie-viele-PKW-Neuzulassungen-werden-im-Maerz-2009-bundesweit-registriert

http://www.firstinsider.de/topic/Wie-viele-Besucher-werden-sich-Der-Kaufhaus-Cop-mit-Kevin-James-am-Startwochenende-ansehen

http://www.firstinsider.de/topic/Wie-viele-Pannen-hat-der-BMW-X5-laut-der-ADAC-Pannenstatistik-2008

Vielen Dank für ihre Aufmerksamkeit!

Was ist gexid?  Die gexid GmbH ermöglicht ihren Auftraggebern einen exklusiven “Blick nach vorne” und schützt so vor unangenehmen Ãœberraschungen. Seit Januar 2006 unterstützt gexid erfolgreich Planungsprozesse, Markt- und Trendforschung, Risikomanagement sowie Mitarbeiter- und Kundenaktivierung. Die gexid GmbH wird von einem erfahrenen Management-Team und Gesellschafterkreis geführt und bietet zusammen mit namhaften Kooperationspartnern exakt auf die Bedürfnisse des Kunden abgestimmte Komplettpakete an.

Nach dem Motto: „First to know – First to profit!“ erhalten Firmen, die eine Prognosefrage (= Topic) erstellen, im Gegenzug für eine ausgelobte Prämie – dem sogenannten „Insiderbonus“ – eine exklusive wie dynamische Kollektivprognose. Experten, die hierfür ihre Prognosen abgeben, können ihr Wissen in bare Münze und Reputation umwandeln. Je früher und genauer die jeweilige Prognose ist, desto höher fallen Prämie und Ansehen aus.

Für Rückfragen steht Ihnen unser Team per E-Mail info@gexid.com oder unter der First Insider Hotline 01801 020 650 9474* gerne zur Verfügung. *täglich zwischen 10:00 und 16:00 Uhr (ausgenommen samstags sowie sonn- und feiertags) nur 3,9 ct/min aus Festnetz DTAG, andere Preise aus Mobilfunk möglich.

Falls Sie keine Pressemeldungen oder Nachrichten der gexid GmbH mehr erhalten möchten, schicken Sie bitte ein Email mit „Unsubscribe“ im Betreff an support@gexid.com. Vielen Dank.

————————————————————————–

gexid – The Global Exchange for Information Derivatives

Email: info@gexid.com

Office: +49 700 265 362 72

Fax: +49 721 151 561 644

Internet: www.gexid.com

———————–

Best wishes to Bernd [I mean, "Herrn Dr. Bernd Ankenbrand" ] and all the other consultants involved in those Gexid pilot projects.

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Download this post if you don’t see the 2 embedded videos.
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The Forrester executive summary:

The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous; as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

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For information on hard-copy or electronic reprints, please contact the Client Resource Center at +1 866.367.7378, +1 617.617.5730, or resourcecenter –at– forrester –dot– com. We offer quantity discounts and special pricing for academic and nonprofit institutions.

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APPENDIX #1: Prediction Markets – DRM Review

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APPENDIX #2:

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Here is a list of companies that provide software for prediction markets:

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Inkling Markets – (MSR + AMM)

NewsFutures – (CDA + optional AMM + SR)

Xpree – (MSR + AMM)

Zocalo – (CDA + MSR + AMM) – (open-source)

Nosco – (CDA + MSR + AMM)

QMarkets – (MSR + AMM)

Ask Markets – (MSR + AMM)

Exago Markets – (CDA + optional AMM)

Gexid – (?)

ProKons – (?)

Spigit – (?)

HSX Virtual Markets – (Virtual Specialist + AMM)

HubDub – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

Yahoo!‘s Prediction Exchange – (MSR + AMM + DPMM) – (not licensed)

Google‘s Prediction Exchange – (CDA) – (not licensed)

MicroSoft PredictionPoint – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

InTrade – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

TradeSports – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

Iowa Electronic Markets – (CDA) – (not licensed)

HedgeStreet – (CDA) – (not licensed)

TradeFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

BetFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

Trading Technologies International – (CDA) – (not for event derivatives)

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Here’s a list of prediction market consultants:

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Robin Hanson – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)

• Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
• “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

• Adam Siegel
• Nathan Kontny

NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

• Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Maurice Balick

Xpree – (California, U.S.A.)

• Mat Fogarty

Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

• Chris Hibbert (Software architect / Zocalo project manager) — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Chris Hibbert’s personal website — Chris Hibbert’s personal blog —
• Chris Hibbert’s CommerceNet profile — (His stint there ended in mid 2006.)

Justin Wolfers – (University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

• Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
• The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

Koleman Strumpf – (University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

• Koleman Strumpf — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
• “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

• Jesper Krogstrup
• Oliver Bernhard Pedersen

Qmarkets – (Israel)

• Noam Danon

Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

• George Tziralis — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

HP Services & HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

• Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
• Information Dynamics Lab — Internal prediction markets
• BRAIN – (Behaviorallly Robust Aggregation of Information in Networks) — Scoring Rules (i.e., non-trading technique)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – Senior Fellow & Director
• Kay-Yut Chen -
• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Prediction market consultancy firm
• Movie business

IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (CalTech Inst., California, U.S.A.)

Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

• Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

ProKons – (Germany, E.U.)

• Peter Gollowitsch

Exago Markets – (Portugal, E.U.)

• Pedro Da Cunha

NimaniX – (Israel)

• Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

Michael Giberson – (Texas, U.S.A.)

• Michael Giberson (Energy Economist – Center for Energy Commerce, Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University) — Post archive at Midas Oracle
• Knowledge Problem – Blog on economics, energy policy, more.

Other Consulting Firms

McKinsey – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”
• The Promise Of Prediction Markets – by McKinsey – 2008-04-XX

Accenture – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Gartner – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Forrester – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”
• Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – 2008-07-14

The Boston Consulting Group – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

CapGemini – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

KPMG – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Price Waterhouse Cooper – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Ernst & Young – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Deloitte – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

IBM – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

EDS – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

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Fabian John (who runs a web forum for the German day-trading community):

Spread Betting/ Spread Trading Companies are regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). (You are using the term “prediction market”, I call it “financial service provider”. This is easier for me to explain how the market works.)

So first, a financial service provider has to be regulated by the domestic regulator. A new EU law (MiFID => http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MiFID) allows every [regulated] company doing cross over business to any country within the EU. All they need is the so called “EU passport” and a “Notice to the Regulator” of the target country (for Germany: BaFin www.bafin.de). Once they get the “OK” they can start to sell products to the clients in the target market. They can start marketing campaigns, publishing Ads on- and offline, etc.

For as bookmaker-classified companies, this is not allowed. They can’t do marketing and advertising, except they have a valid license. BetFair doesn’t have an own German license (there are just 4 private) but they cooperate with a company which have one. This is the only way way they can offer bets to German clients. TradeFair binaries, ChoiceOdds etc. are unregulated markets, classified as online gambling. Usually, German traders are NOT allowed to gamble and trade there. ChoiceOdds (www.choiceodds.com) for instance does not accept any German residents.

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BetFair:

Improvements to Betfair’s bet matching logic today, Monday 14th July:

What’s changing?
We’ve improved the code that matches bets. As well as matching backs against lays as we’ve always done, we’ll also try to match your bet against bets on other selections in the market. We‘ll give you an improvement over the price you‘ve requested where possible, and we‘ll match you against whichever bets get you the best price.

For example in a tennis market:

Roger Federer is 1.9 to back, 2.1 to lay.
Rafael Nadal is 1.8 to back, 2.0 to lay.

If you try to back Federer at 1.9 or less, previously we would have matched your bet against the customer looking to lay Federer at 1.9. Both bets would have been matched at 1.9, even if you‘d asked for a shorter price. In theory we could do even better than that though: we could match you against the customer trying to back Nadal at 2.0 (backing one player at 2.0 is of course the same as laying the other player at 2.0). Our new bet matching process will see which match gets you the better price. In this case we would get you 2.0 by matching you against the Nadal backer (who is offering a better price than the layer of Federer).

When placing a new bet you will only ever be matched by the new process if doing so gives you a better price than you would otherwise have got. We will match your bet at the best price possible that’s a valid increment on Betfair’s odds ladder, as we explained in our update of 6th June.

Does this only work for 2-runner markets like tennis?
No. The new matching logic works for any number of runners in a market. An example with a 2-runner market is probably easiest to understand, but the principle is the same for markets with 3 runners or more. For example if a football market looked like this:

Spain 2.3 to back, 2.5 to lay
Germany 3.9 to back, 4.0 to lay
The Draw 2.9 to back, 3.0 to lay

Then if you want to back Spain we could match you with customers looking to back Germany and the Draw at 4.0 and 3.0 respectively, which would result in you being matched at 2.4, a better price than you would have got had we matched you against Spain layers (who are only offering 2.3).

Which markets will this affect?
We’ll introduce the new code on Monday 14th July, but initially matching will be done exactly as before. As explained earlier in the year, introducing best execution across selections wasn’t possible without significant change to the existing code that matches backs and lays, so we will need verify that performance is as expected for the existing matching process before enabling the new functionality. All being well we’ll enable the new code for a small number of markets to ensure that everything is as it should be later on Monday. We’ll announce which markets on Monday. Again if all is well we’ll roll out to a wider range of markets on Tuesday.

We’d expect to match across selections on the same range of markets as we currently do:

Match Odds in Basketball, Boxing, Cricket, Ice Hockey, Rugby League, Rugby Union, Snooker, Tennis and Volleyball, Greyhounds win markets, Darts match odds, correct score and handicaps and Soccer match odds, HT/FT, correct score and unders/overs.

Horse racing will not be covered for now, due to the possibility of non-runners, and the new process isn’t applicable to markets where runners can be added (for example “Next manager” markets), where runners listed might not take part (e.g. First Goalscorer) or where the runners in a particular “market” are treated independently (e.g. Accumulators).

What about bets placed in error?
We’re aware of a concern that this change might make it more likely that customers would match bets placed in error, for example asking for 1.2 when you really wanted to back at 2.2. One consequence of the change we’re making is that any bet you place is more likely to get matched – making it easier to get a match is the whole idea. Being realistic though, if you had placed a bet in error like that in the past, in the vast majority of cases you would have been matched (against lays on that selection). There’ll now be far, far more circumstances where you would have been matched anyway , but instead you’ll now get a better price, than situations where your bet would have been unmatched and you might have had the chance to cancel. On average we would expect customers who place bets in error to be better off as a result.

On a related point, we’d also expect this change to make it more difficult for people who place “trap bets” to get matched (a trap bet is an offer that is only likely to be matched if another customer places a bet in error). While putting up “trap bets” is against Betfair’s terms and conditions and we close the accounts of persistent offenders, on an exchange where any customer can ask for any price it’s difficult to eradicate this practice. In most instances where a trap bet is the best price available on a selection, customers will in future be matched at better prices against bets on other selections rather than matching the trap bet.

How will the change affect liquidity?
We would expect the change to be beneficial to liquidity. Obviously if we have opposing customer bets in the system that could be matched, whether on the same selection or across different selections, the best thing for liquidity is to match them.

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Further to the above, we’ll be enabling the improved matching on the following markets later today.

Football:

Czech Republic U19 vs. England U19
FC Inter vs. MyPa

Tennis:
Andujar vs. Hanescu
Minar vs. Rochus

Greyhounds:
11:28 Sheffield
11:48 Oxford

Top-10 reasons why NewsFutures is the ideal partner to harness the wisdom of your crowd

1.) Integrated Solutions

We offer complete solutions, not just great software. This approach delivers a much higher success rate and enables the client organization to fully consider Prediction Markets as a key decision-support tool.

From experience, we know that a successful prediction market project requires a lot more than great software or a cool website. Above all:

- Featuring strategic and well-defined questions;
- Securing a high participation rate;
- Integrating the market into the management and decision-making processes.
- Our project management checklist covers 30+ task components of market design, market implementation, and market administration. To ensure success, NewsFutures offers hands-on management and best-practice advice at every stage, in close contact with the client-side team. And if the client is willing to handle some of those tasks itself, we make sure to transfer the relevant knowledge and skills.

2.) A suite of powerful tools

Our platform offers a full suite of knowledge aggregation tools that are optimized for various forecasting needs and business contexts: prediction markets, and more, much more.

As an early pioneer in the field of enterprise prediction markets, NewsFutures has been among the first to recognize not only the power of this tool, but also its various practical limits in certain situations. We are experienced enough to recognize when other knowledge aggregation mechanisms may offer more practical or productive solutions.

That’s why, in close collaboration with some of our clients (in particular InterContinental Hotels, Eli Lilly, Arcelor Mittal, and Pfizer), we have developed a suite of innovative software tools that enable us to optimally aggregate predictions in a variety of business contexts. All of these tools are currently fielded with various clients.

Our software platform currently includes:

Prediction Markets. A continuous double auction trading engine (with optional market maker) is particularly appropriate for measuring risks and opportunities as event probabilities. It can also be used to forecast continuous variables.

Competitive Forecasting. Designed for collective forecasting of specific business variables, such as quarterly sales, especially under several conditional scenarios, or with a small pool of participants.

Idea Pageant. Ideal for rapid harvesting and filtering of a large number of new ideas that require evaluation and prioritization.

Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.

This versatile set of tools enables us to propose and implement the most effective solution in every case.

3.) World-Class Expertise

NewsFutures has the longest record of implementing enterprise prediction markets, the most extensive enterprise client list, and the widest geographical reach.

Our team has been immersed in every aspect of delivering successful enterprise prediction markets since 2002. We have implemented internal markets and external markets of all shapes, durations and sizes, around the world: U.S.A., Brasil, France, U.K., Germany, Holland, Japan, Hong Kong, and as far as New Zealand. We have built the longest-running continuous client relationship in the industry (servicing Eli Lilly since 2003).

Our methodology and technological solutions have been shaped by this rich history of confrontation with reality. We know that implementing a successful enterprise prediction market requires clear goals, significant resources, constant care and monitoring, and we know what it takes to deliver success. No other team is more seasoned.

«NewsFutures has done some of the most innovative work in the area for longer than most. They were in there making it happen for real while others were clueless on the fringes.»
- Ajit Kambil – Gobal Director, Deloitte Research

Notably, we have also built our eponymous public prediction exchange into one of the best known play-money exchanges. The experience of running this market non-stop since the year 2000 gave us deep insights into what it takes to successfully manage a market for the long run.

4.) Creative leadership

NewsFutures is a thought leader and a creative driving force within the industry.

NewsFutures started implementing prediction markets in 2000, years before the buzz words “wisdom of crowds” and “web 2.0″ even surfaced in the brains of James Surowiecki and Tim O’Reilly – and we’ve been at the forefront of innovation ever since: Over the years, we’ve fielded several innovative tools for harvesting the wisdom of crowds in various enterprise contexts, and we even applied for a pending patent on a multi-outcome continuous double auction (CDA) trading engine.

In 2003, NewsFutures led the first field study comparing real-money and play-money markets, publishing the results in a landmark article co-authored with some of the field’s leading academic researchers: Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? – Electronic Markets, 14 (3), September 2004. This research significantly enhanced the credibility of play-money markets and, as a result, boosted their adoption within enterprise contexts.

In 2007, NewsFutures started experimenting with an innovative business model for real-money public prediction markets: Bet2Give.

NewsFutures work has been covered on television by CBS News (here) and CNBC (here), and in print by prestigious publications in the United States and Europe, including James Surowiecki’s international best-seller The Wisdom of Crowds.

Our CEO, Emile Servan-Schreiber, has lectured on the topic all over the world, including at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and at the Wharton Business School.
In recognition of NewsFutures’ practical and throught leadership, Emile was chosen to chair the new Prediction Market Industry Association. He is also an associate editor of the Journal of Prediction Markets.

5.) Customized solutions

Our software platform is customization-friendly, enabling us to tailor our solutions to a client’s special needs.

When dealing with high-end demanding customers, one size cannot fit all. The NewsFutures philosophy is to tailor a market solution to the problem at hand, rather than force-fit the problem to a pre-existing market template. That usually means, in addition to choosing the most appropriate tool and market design, customizing the user interface to optimize the integration with the client’s IT infrastructure and the navigation among various markets.

It also means being responsive to customer requests for additional features that extend the platform’s capabilities, and sometimes even developing completely new tools. (Indeed, this is how we came to develop and integrate into the platform a whole suite of original tools in addition to prediction markets.)

In contrast to the one-size-fits-all market and navigation templates provided by others, the NewsFutures software platform offers the flexibility needed to address the unique needs of demanding customers.

6.) Industrial-strength software

NewsFutures software satisfies the highest professional standards and demanding environments.

Internet giant Yahoo!, who knows a thing or two about quality software, chose to acquire the source code of our prediction market engine to power its own Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game.

Our platform is so reliable that it has been used to operate high-stakes real-money political markets for Holland’s leading daily de Volkskrant (see this report), and we currently use it to operate our own real-money prediction exchange Bet2Give.

7.) Military-grade security and confidentiality

We offer a range of access, backup, encryption, integration and hosting options that satisfies the most demanding customers.

NewsFutures has been vetted by customers who put a premium on data security and confidentiality, such as the U.S. Military, pharmaceutical clients, and others in the super-competitive IT industry.

While most clients are satisfied to host their applications on our servers, located in a high-security facility, others have had us ship fully configured hardware that they can install behind their own firewall, or had us install the prediction market application directly on one of their own servers within their existing IT infrastructure.

8.) Multilingual applications

In a global world, English is not enough.

Our software platform is designed to operate in multi-language mode, with a user interface that can offer several languages simultaneously. English, French, Dutch and German versions are already implemented. Other languages can easily be added on request. This feature is important for multinational companies that want to tap the collective intelligence of a linguistically diverse population.

9.) Round-the-clock support

Present on two continents, NewsFutures offers rapid response across many time-zones.

The NewsFutures enterprise team operates the world over from New Jersey, USA, and Paris, France. This enables rapid response in many different time zones and continuous availability from 08:00 to 01:00 GMT. We are currently servicing clients in the United States (from coast to coast), France, Holland, and as far as New Zealand. Our multi-cultural team is well suited to operate in a global world while being attuned to the importance of local differences.

10.) Team players

Although NewsFutures is equiped to deliver integrated solutions, we also have significant experience in partnering with consultancies to service their clients.

We find such partnerships rewarding and productive, and we are very comfortable with them, especially because they help implant the solutions deeper into the host organization. Over the years, we have teamed up with consultancies large and small. Among the largest are SAIC (on a U.S. Military project), Accenture (on a MIT Technology Review project), and the RAND Corporation (on a Texas DOT project).

If you are a consultancy and you would like to deliver wisdom of crowds solutions to your clients, please contact us for details of our partnership program.

Those suck because they are not jotted down anywhere, and they are impossible to memorize:

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Bad Internet usability —once again.

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