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	<title>Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; genomics</title>
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	<description>Prediction Markets, etc.</description>
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		<title>Expert Groups vs. Prediction Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/10/expert-group-vs-prediction-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/10/expert-group-vs-prediction-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jan 2007 09:54:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Meta)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[computing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[expert group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[genomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[proteomics]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[MicroSoft&#8217;s Towards 2020 Science, via Perfectly Reasonable Deviations: In the summer of 2005, an international expert group was brought together for a workshop to define and produce a new vision and roadmap of the evolution, challenges and potential of computer &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/10/expert-group-vs-prediction-markets/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://research.microsoft.com/towards2020science/background_overview.htm" title="2020 Science">MicroSoft&#8217;s <em>Towards 2020 Science</em></a>, <a href="http://stochastix.wordpress.com/2007/01/10/2020-science/" title="2020 Science">via Perfectly Reasonable Deviations</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>In the summer of 2005, <strong>an international expert group</strong> was brought together for a workshop to define and produce a new <strong>vision and roadmap</strong> of the evolution, challenges and potential of computer science and computing in scientific research in the next fifteen years.</p>
<p>The resulting document, <em>Towards 2020 Science</em>, sets out the challenges and opportunities arising from the increasing <strong>synthesis of computing and the sciences.</strong> It seeks to identify the requirements necessary to accelerate scientific advances â€“particularly those driven by computational sciences and the &#8216;new kinds&#8217; of science <strong>the synthesis of computing and the sciences</strong> is creating. Already <strong>this synthesis</strong> has led to new fields and advances spanning genomics and proteomics, earth sciences and climatology, nanomaterials, chemistry and physics.</p>
<p>We hope <em>Towards 2020 Science</em> will act as a &#8216;pathfinder&#8217; to new research directions in science and computing. We also hope that it will contribute to, and inform, national and international scientific debate and science policy. It is also just a start, a catalyst for more discussion, so lastly, we hope that you will find it useful, inspiring and provocative.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Short term</strong>, I always favor political prediction markets over political expert groups &#8212;for other topics, I need to see whether there&#8217;s market liquidity. <strong>Long term</strong>, alas, except for a bunch of <a href="http://www.ideosphere.com/" title="Foresight Exchange">Foresight Exchange</a> contracts, there is no match for expert groups&#8217; analysis and prognosis.</p>
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