Tag Archives: General
My response to the CFTC on event contracts
Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]
HubDub limitations
HubDub is supposed to be a combo: a prediction exchange plus a news aggregator. But are the news sorted out pertinently?
Out of the 13 news stories listed under the prediction market on the CFTC licensing event markets, not a single one … NOT A SINGLE ONE… covers that issue. They are general news about futures [...]
Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
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The Brain has a comment on Scott Page’s presentation [PPT file] about his book, The Difference:
One question is whether there is a way to usefully systematize that principle by trader selection or via something other than a strict market such as an (incentivised) weighted average system like HP’s BRAIN. The latter type of system will [...]
Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November)
The conference will be held next Thursday (1 November) at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007) and the schedule is listed below.
I am pleased to note that Mat Fogarty (Founder and CEO, Xpree) and Alexander Costakis (Managing Director, HSX) have been added to [...]
Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007)
I have organized a conference on corporate prediction markets which may be of interest to Midas Oracle readers. It will take place on 1 November at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007/PredictionMarketsConference.html) with some background available on the conference flier (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007/PredictionMarketsConference_Flier.html). Note that this [...]
Market Making on BetFair
Via our faithful reader Rajesh R. Kallidumbil, the BetFair forum (click on “General Betting” – below are the best excerpts of the discussion):
Public traded companies acting marketmakers. fair?
alika 08 Aug 10:41
A Swedish public company traded on the stock market is claiming that they are getting payed for acting as a [...]
Forums on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (betting markets) and prediction exchanges (betting exchanges)
TradeSports / InTrade forum — TradeSports sometimes edits/removes its traders’ posts. —
BetFair forum — “General Betting” under “Other Groups”, on the left pane, is interesting. —
BetFair forum – Asia
Foresight Exchange forum = IdeoSphere forum —
Inkling Markets forum —
HSX forum —
NewsFutures message boards —
Pop Sci prediction exchange forum —
Global Imbalances – Start of the Thread — [...]
A General Methodology for Designing Self-Organizing Systems
Probability of acceptance: 38%.
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