Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: general manager

Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery

“Which teams will play in the 2007 World Series?“ An experienced market manager has created a market asking this question at the Inkling public markets, setting it up at the end of the regular season and listing contracts in each of the then possible 20 different combinations (four teams from the American League and five [...]

Most of the news articles on prediction markets published by the prestigious newspapers will soon be free of charge.


The New York Times = free, starting tomorrow
The Wall Street Journal = $$$ — free, soon, maybe
The Los Angeles Times = free
The Financial Times = $$$

And, now, the admission:
“What wasn’t anticipated was the explosion in how much of our traffic would be generated by Google, by Yahoo and some others,” [Ms. Vivian L. Schiller, general [...]

Pat Tillman prediction markets, anyone??

Was Pat Tillman murdered?

Pat Tillman was an atheist and wanted George W. Bush out of office.
Wikipedia:
Religious and political beliefs
According to speakers at his funeral, he was very well-read, having read a number of religious texts including the Bible, Quran and Book of Mormon as well as transcendentalist authors such as Ralph Waldo Emerson and Henry [...]

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