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Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party’s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close. Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

Posted on February 4, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

Up at Caveat Bettor. Zogby poll numbers here. Intrade snapshots taken at 1pm. Here are the notable divergences between the pollster and the prediction market: NJ Dem: Intrade calling for Clinton, while Zogby in a tie. CA Rep: Intrade calling … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment