Tag Archives: Fred Thompson

The best headline of the day –post Michigan

From the Los Angeles Times: Ron Paul, Dr. No-body, beats Rudy and Fred –again. Well, he’s hanging in there. Not only that, but Rep. Ron Paul thumped two reputed Republican heavyweights in the Michigan primary — former Sen. Fred Thompson … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Nicholas Kristoff’s ad for the InTrade prediction markets in the New York Times

Heu… Sorry… Nicholas Kristoff’s Op-Ed featuring the InTrade betting exchange in the 2007-07-30′s New York Times – $$$ … Via Freakonomics… Right now the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record thinks Hillary Rodham Clinton has the best chance of … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Michael Bloomberg for US President??

Michael Bloomberg to run as Independent in 2008 Previous: Under this hypothetical scenario, the money would support a targeted advertising campaign to sell an Electoral College strategy to voters. — The McLaughlin Group (MP4 file): MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Issue Four: Back … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Intrade politics roundup, May 18

Monsieur Masse asked me to offer another nomination-futures roundup. I was happy to oblige. First, the Republicans. Fred Thompson has not impressed at his two “policy” speeches thus far (the first in OC, the second at the “Council for National … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Political futures, exam-week edition

Since last week’s poli futs post was so popular, M. Masse and I agreed that a sequel was not just right, but necessary. First, the Democratic frontrunners… I have not been able to figure these two. Through good news (April … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

2008 candidates: the bottom line

Here are some candlestick graphs of the major Republican and Democratic 2008 contenders over the past 50 days (when Fred Thompson’s contract began trading). The bottom graph for each measures the percentage fluctuations in trading volume relative to previous trading. … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Ruminating on political futures activity

With regards especially to the Republican side of the field, the markets are having a difficult time pricing the two unannounced heavyweights of their respective parties’ nominations: namely, Fred Thompson and Al Gore. On the Republican side, there has been … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 7 Comments