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Tag Archives: foxes

Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog?

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 20, 2009 — 2 Comments

Read Tyler Cowen’s description of Robin Hanson, and then answer these 2 questions:
- Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog?
- Is Tyler Cowen a fox or a hedgehog?
Comment below, or e-mail me if you want your toughts to stay private.
I am 100% certain that Tyler Cowen is a fox. However, I cannot make up [...]

Posted in People, Psychology | Also tagged , , , , ,

When we score the accuracy of thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts across dozens of countries over twenty years, we find the best forecasters tend to be modest about their forecasting skills, eclectic in their ideological and theoretical tastes, and self-critical in their analytical styles.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 28, 2009 — Leave a Comment

“Relative to foxes who are less encumbered by loyalties to an all-encompassing worldview, hedgehogs offer bolder forecasts and, although they hit occasional grand slams, they strike out a lot and wind up with decidedly poorer batting averages.“
Philip Tetlock –of course.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Also tagged , , ,

Midas Oracle now on Twitter.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 1, 2009 — 2 Comments

Yesterday, I advised you not to publish on Twitter. In all French logic ( ), I have now opened a Twitter account for Midas Oracle, and will be (automatically) publishing there teasers (with links) to the latest Midas Oracle posts (from all authors, not just mine) —all thanks to that marvelous WordPress plugin. [...]

Posted in Information Technology, Midas Oracle Administration, Psychology | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 3, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Philip Tetlock interviewed (last year):
IDEAS: Any individual expert is likely to be wrong. What happens when you put a bunch of them in the same room? Does the consensus come up with a better prediction than the individual?
TETLOCK: Usually yes. Jim Surowiecki wrote that very clever book on “The Wisdom of Crowds.” . . . [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Resources - References | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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