Tag Archives: foxes

Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs. OK, BUT WHY…????… — [QUESTION]

Posted on July 17, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s a question to my readers. Do you believe in intuition, and do you think that that’s the reason foxes are (a bit) better at forecasting than hedgehogs?

Posted in Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus, Precognition, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog?

Posted on November 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Read Tyler Cowen’s description of Robin Hanson, and then answer these 2 questions: – Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog? – Is Tyler Cowen a fox or a hedgehog? Comment below, or e-mail me if you want your … Continue reading →

Posted in People, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

When we score the accuracy of thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts across dozens of countries over twenty years, we find the best forecasters tend to be modest about their forecasting skills, eclectic in their ideological and theoretical tastes, and self-critical in their analytical styles.

Posted on August 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“Relative to foxes who are less encumbered by loyalties to an all-encompassing worldview, hedgehogs offer bolder forecasts and, although they hit occasional grand slams, they strike out a lot and wind up with decidedly poorer batting averages.“ Philip Tetlock –of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Midas Oracle now on Twitter.

Posted on May 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Yesterday, I advised you not to publish on Twitter. In all French logic ( ), I have now opened a Twitter account for Midas Oracle, and will be (automatically) publishing there teasers (with links) to the latest Midas Oracle posts … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology, Midas Oracle Administration, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy

Posted on April 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Philip Tetlock interviewed (last year): IDEAS: Any individual expert is likely to be wrong. What happens when you put a bunch of them in the same room? Does the consensus come up with a better prediction than the individual? TETLOCK: … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment