Meta
-
Recent Posts
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: foxes
Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs. OK, BUT WHY…????… — [QUESTION]
Here’s a question to my readers. Do you believe in intuition, and do you think that that’s the reason foxes are (a bit) better at forecasting than hedgehogs?
Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog?
Read Tyler Cowen’s description of Robin Hanson, and then answer these 2 questions: – Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog? – Is Tyler Cowen a fox or a hedgehog? Comment below, or e-mail me if you want your … Continue reading
Posted in People, Psychology
Tagged fox, foxes, hedgehog, hedgehogs, Philip Tetlock, Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen
2 Comments
When we score the accuracy of thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts across dozens of countries over twenty years, we find the best forecasters tend to be modest about their forecasting skills, eclectic in their ideological and theoretical tastes, and self-critical in their analytical styles.
“Relative to foxes who are less encumbered by loyalties to an all-encompassing worldview, hedgehogs offer bolder forecasts and, although they hit occasional grand slams, they strike out a lot and wind up with decidedly poorer batting averages.“ Philip Tetlock –of … Continue reading
Midas Oracle now on Twitter.
Yesterday, I advised you not to publish on Twitter. In all French logic ( ), I have now opened a Twitter account for Midas Oracle, and will be (automatically) publishing there teasers (with links) to the latest Midas Oracle posts … Continue reading
Posted in Information Technology, Midas Oracle Administration, Psychology
Tagged blog posts, foxes, hedgehog, hedgehogs, Midas Oracle, Open Media, ox, Philip Tetlock, posts, predictive ability, Psychology, Twitter
2 Comments