Wall Street analystss view is too short term.

And that includes Jason Ruspini.


– Keep in mind that, at inception, Apple also underestimated the iPad numbers. They had to ramp up production, later on.

– See Paul Hewitt&#8217-s comment, below.

Whats different about Predictalot?

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A predictalot user asked:

What&#8217-s the difference between predict a lot y Bolsa de predicciones? they have the same things or at least very similar. ?Are you the same? They have predictions, groups, events etc. the only difference is the language- BP is in spanish.

This is my answer.

The main difference is that on bolsadepredicciones (and other prediction markets like crowdcast, inklingmarkets, intrade, newsfutures, hubdub RIP, and WorldCupX.com &#8212- a new site with a nice/fresh look and good social hooks) every prediction is independent (separate) and there are at most a few thousand.

In predictalot, all predictions are interrelated (predicting Spain to win automatically increases Spain&#8217-s odds of reaching the knockout round) and there are millions and millions of predictions possible, far more than other sites.

We also think our interface is easier to use than others, but you be the judge.

Predictions are flowing in about every three minutes. Here are some from the last half hour:

Chile will finish second in their group. Current odds: 33.50%.
Spain will finish first in their group. Current odds: 52.48%.
Spain will play Portugal in the knockout stage. Current odds: 48.77%.
Roger joined the group &#8216-inetco&#8217-
Spain will advance further than Greece. Current odds: 76.93%.
Spain will not advance to the Knockout Stage. Current odds: 23.13%.
Spain will advance to the Knockout Stage. Current odds: 77.86%.
Both United States and Uruguay will advance to Quaterfinals. Current odds: 60.04%.

Finally, here are instructions for playing predictalot on your iPad:

  1. Click Safari
  2. Go to predictalot.yahoo.com

Playing predictalot on iPad

Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.

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Business Insider cites various InTrade probabilities.

  1. Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market.
  2. Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event.
  3. Joe should be aware of InTrade&#8217-s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements on non-sporting events. (Type &#8220-North Korea missile InTrade&#8221- in Google, and review the various InTrade forums for traces of past fights.)

The United States and the European governments will default on their debt, eventually – dixit Marc Faber. [PREDICTIONS]

Singapore is the safest.

2:15 into

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Via Joe Weisenthal