Tag Archives: Forecasting (Science & Practice)

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies.Â Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets. What Robin Hanson does not … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, decision-aid markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, prediction market industry, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds | 8 Comments

I typed “predictions” in Wolfram Alpha, and I got that… among other things.

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- And now, for “forecasting”:

Posted in Information Technology | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet search, Predictions, Search Engines, Web search, Wolfram Alpha | Leave a comment

Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization?

Posted on May 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Announcement from the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn: Hello dear members, We all love prediction markets. We are [286] on this group. Please, do forward this e-mail to one or two of your friends who love the prediction markets, so … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Midas Oracle Administration, Resources - References | Tagged accuracy, bet markets, betting markets, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets, Midas Oracle, predicting, prediction markets, Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn, Predictions, private prediction markets | 5 Comments

“If prediction markets are not consistently more accurate than other means of forecasting, they will never have a chance in the business world.”

Posted on May 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

…is… the sentence of the day.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged accuracy, consistency, Forecasting (Science & Practice), prediction markets | Leave a comment

Enterprise prediction markets have no benefits for businesses.

Posted on May 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: My review of the literature and case studies (that have been published) indicates that prediction markets have improved the accuracy of forecasts, but the improvements have not been great enough to encourage widespread (or even minimal) acceptance. Furthermore, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged businesses, Consensus, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, opinions, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, private prediction markets, public prediction markets | 6 Comments

The horse that Steve Levitt predicted would finish last… actually won the Kentucky Derby.

Posted on May 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Thankfully, no one pays attention. I would like to read what Nate Silver thinks of horse racing forecasting.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), horse racing, Humor, Kentucky Derby, predicting, prediction, Steve Levitt | Leave a comment

Using prediction markets to selecting the best ideas as opposed to judging accuracy of predictions on measurable outcomes?

Posted on May 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I don’t get it, but you can always go there and scan that illogical Motorola EPM story.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged corporate forecasting, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, Motorola, prediction markets, private prediction markets | 5 Comments

“Trading is a game —and we do the forecast!”

Posted on May 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

http://www.crowdpark.de/ In beta. Best wishes to them

Posted in Business | Tagged CrowdPark, Forecasting (Science & Practice), trading | 1 Comment

Could Google Have Caught Swine Flu (a.k.a. Mexican Flu, or H1N1) Early?

Posted on April 30, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), The Internet | Tagged diseases, flu, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Google Flu Trends, Google Search, Google Trends, Google Web Search, influenza, keywords, Mexican Flu, predicting, Predictions, search engine requests, Search Engines, Swine Flu. H1N1 | 1 Comment

The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated.

Posted on April 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Gartner ranked the benefits given by software for enterprise prediction markets as “moderate” (look up the 3rd line of the 3rd column): – Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file): – California Institute of Technology economist … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting | Tagged accuracy, Business, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Gartner, hype, internal prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social software | Leave a comment

Tag Archives: Forecasting (Science & Practice)

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