Tag Archives: FOMC

Market Probabilities on January 2008 FOMC

Stan Jonas (DutchBook Partners) to me: This chart captures (tick by tick) the “arbitrageable” probabilities of perhaps the most popular “bet” traded: the probability that the FED will move 50 basis points (i.e. twice) by the January 2008 FOMC. As … Continue reading

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BetFair predicts: US Federal Funds Rate = 5%

What will be the change in US Federal Funds Rate at this month’s scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting? FOMC – September FOMC Current Rate 5.25% . – 0.25 UPDATE: BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate … Continue reading

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The market stumbled as Wall Street seemed to grasp that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates.

Wall Street Journal: The signs came early, starting with a speech before the markets opened by the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, that hinted the central bank was comfortable in its current monetary policy groove of holding rates steady at … Continue reading

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Ben Bernanke predicts that the economy will rebound later this year (2007).

Crossing Wall Street: [...] That’s good to hear. Of course, in February he was expecting 2.5% to 3% growth this year — not the 0.6% we have. More importantly, however, is what the market says. The markets’ odds for a … Continue reading

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