Data were taken around 1:00 pm —this Friday, October 31, 2008.

-

#1. PREDICTION MARKETS

-

InTrade: Florida will vote Barack Obama.

-

HubDub: Florida will vote Barack Obama.

Who will win Florida in the 2008 Presidential Election?

-

BetFair: Florida will vote for Barack Obama.

-

#2. STATE POLLS

- CNN: Florida is too close to call.

- Electoral-Vote.com: Florida is “barely” for Barack Obama.

- RCP: Florida is slightly (+3.5) for Barack Obama.

- Nate Silver: Florida is slightly fo Barack Obama (pale blue).

- Pollster.com: Florida is a “toss up”.

- PollTrack: Florida is “too close to call”.

-

-

I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am heavily betting on Barack Obama for Florida and North Carolina. There will be a good payoff, next Tuesday —maybe.

-

-

-

Who will win Florida in the 2008 Presidential Election?

-

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

-

-

Explainer On Prediction Markets

-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 60 times out of 100, the favored outcome will occur; and 40 times out of 100, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. These event derivative traders feed on the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. (Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…) Armed with these bits of information, the speculators then trade based on their anticipations, which will be either confirmed or infirmed. Hence, the prediction markets (which are more than just an information aggregation mechanism) are a meta forecasting tool.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

-

More Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

-

The Democratic side:

-

Tip via Lance Fortnow

-

Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated?

-

UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini’s expert analysis in the comment area.

-

-

Alas, NewsFutures does not maintain webpages about expired contracts:

Actually, the “market specified” did exist —but Emile and his team decided that old markets aren’t worth anything. They are damn wrong. HubDub does maintain all the expired contracts, which are indexed by the search engines (like Google Web Search) forever, and you can of course search those expired contracts on the HubDub website itself.

-

PS: Democratic delegates from Michigan and Florida were awarded full voting rights at the national convention Sunday. – Yahoo! News

July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.

Attention: Office of the Secretariat

RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”

To Whom it May Concern:

It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade the Prediction Market Limited (“Intrade”) to provide price discovery information on thousands of event markets free of charge to notable institutions such as yourselves at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. Navy, the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, and Chicago, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the American Enterprise Institute – Brookings Joint Centre, CATO Institute, and the Bank of England. We have similarly supplied our price discovery event market information to political organisations, students and staff at every Ivy League College, and students and staff at over 50 universities worldwide.

We estimate that over 300 global media businesses such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, The Los Angles Times, Chicago Tribune, Economist, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forbes, Time, Fortune, CNN, CNBC, Fox, ABC and others have used Intrade event market information.

Investment firms on Wall Street, and the other major financial centres of the world, have solicited and been provided with Intrade price discovery event market information. The above lists are not exhaustive.

Further, Intrade provides free real-time transparent price discovery event market information to millions of people from the general public. While Intrade serves a global community and has registered members from 162 countries, our 82,000 plus membership are predominantly resident in the United States. The predictive probability information on event markets that we supply to the general public is both intuitive and readily and rapidly assimilated without the necessity for paid subscriptions or a financial education.

Intrade has been transparent and industrious, as have others, in nurturing the development of the event market industry. Intrade as a profit-maximizing business does of course expect to significantly benefit from its dedicated employment. However the benefits to society at large will be equivalently great from Intrade’s focus on event markets.

While U.S. institutions and society benefit from Intrade’s services it is perversely unclear as to whether Intrade, and indeed myself, are considered persona gratis by the United States. However, we are more optimistic than ever that Intrade as the de facto leader in the event market industry sector will soon have the ability to stand on a firm, transparent and appropriate regulatory footing thanks to the process that the CFTC has accelerated through their request for comments on how to regulate event markets.

Not since the Industrial Revolution have the risks and their commensurate opportunities of dealing with great uncertainty and rapid change that we all face been so high. Much of this change and uncertainty is technology driven, with most countries, organizations and households accepting, in theory at least, that they must change.

The recent implosion of credit markets is just one example of the great uncertainty and potential for events impacting citizens of the United States and farther afield.

To adapt to a changing world in an orderly and optimal manner requires access to information, robust decision-making processes and the courage and determination to grasp the opportunities that a dynamic world offers. The CFTC and indeed the United States itself has access to the information, the decisionmaking expertise, and a historical track record of determination and accomplishment.

But the relentless change that we all face will be best dealt with if we have the best information, in real time, to reduce uncertainty, risk and stress. Event market information can and has increased the quality and timeliness of decision-making. Event markets can act as a democratic mechanism that gives voice to the broadest range of event stakeholders and, in so doing, aggregates a peerless information set. By encouraging the aggregation, distribution, validation and appropriate use of the best event market information, society will benefit even more than it does today from event markets. To do otherwise than to encourage event market development would be a societal travesty.

The dynamic nature of the world that we live in, where the pace and systematic impact of change seem to be increasing, will be greatly aided if event markets are given a certain regulatory footing in the United States and other jurisdictions. This, coupled with the fact that markets excel in aggregating information and estimating the value of a product or the likelihood of an event occurring, testifies to the logic that the price discovery that event markets produce should now be encouraged by the CFTC.

The CFTC by clarifying the status of event markets now will be of great service to Americans. In this regard the CFTC has an important opportunity and one that the CFTC seem very positively biased to grasp in light of its statements, such as…
- The CFTC state on their website that they have “An Important Mission in the Ever-Changing World of Finance.”
- “The CFTC assures the economic utility of the futures markets by encouraging their competitiveness and efficiency.”
- “The CFTC is also mandated to enable futures markets to serve the important function of providing a means for price discovery and offsetting price risk.”

CFTC Acting Chairman Walt Lukken, when announcing the execution of a memorandum of understanding with the SEC on March 11, 2008, stated: “The regulatory structure that oversees the U.S. financial markets embrace innovation, growth and competition in the global marketplace, without compromising market integrity, customer protection and the public good.”

The above statements, in addition to the Concept Release by the CFTC, are very encouraging. It is specifically this price discovery and risk management mandate that justify the CFTC’s embrace of event markets, should justification be needed.

Intrade has listed 211,607 individual event markets and aggregated and distributed predictive event market information on subjects such as Arctic Oil Drilling, Climate Change, Commodities, Company Earnings, Constitutional Referenda, Currencies, Disease Outbreaks, Earthquakes, Economic Numbers, Entertainment Awards and Earnings, Indices, Euro Adoption, Federal Reserve Announcements, Gas Prices, Gasoline Tax, Geo Political Events, Homeland Security in the U.S., Mergers & Acquisitions, Social Security Reform and U.S. Taxes. This list is far from exhaustive.

No other platform has listed more event markets than Intrade. To the best of our knowledge and belief the event market leadership position that is often ascribed to Intrade is wholly justified from a review of the breadth of the event markets listed and information we have aggregated and distributed. Information, as noted above, that is used by governmental agencies, businesses, academics, and the general public to reduce uncertainty and in so doing increase the speed and quality of decisions being made.

While the obvious benefits to the general public in terms of price discovery and decision-making of some Intrade event markets will be more obvious than others, we can make robust arguments that all have the potential to serve the dual purpose of price discovery and a mechanism for offsetting price risk.

The CFTC by clarifying its position on event markets will give all event market stakeholders valuable direction on market and participant eligibility. Whether used at the federal government level or by the individual citizen, event markets provide a magnificent opportunity to use price discovery information in managing economic risk. Here are just a few examples from the 211,607 event markets we have listed.

Intrade has listed markets on the probability of the Homeland Security alert level being above or below a certain level at a certain date. “The United States spends roughly $100 billion per year on homeland security” according to the White House. The costs of migrating from a threat level of “Guarded” to a threat level of “Elevated” have very significant costs for the government, business, and society. By utilizing event market price discovery information on the probability that the alert level will be at a certain threshold on a given date, the economic consequences of the threat level can be managed in a more insightful way.

Jason Ruspini has suggested markets to Intrade on whether the marginal personal income tax rate for single U.S. filers will be equal to or greater than a range of specified percentages for tax years 2009, 2010 and 2011. Having spoken directly to a number of tax paying citizens from the United States, the transparency of this information undoubtedly serves a public good. Is there a Unites States resident taxpayer who will read this comment who is not interested in the taxes she or he will pay next year?

On a more macro level, Intrade has listed a market on whether the cold fusion experiment of Dr. Yoshiaki Arata will be replicated in a peer-reviewed scientific journal before 31 December 2009. The possible impact of such a development to our energy needs little hyperbolae. The fact that President Bush requested $25 billion for the U.S. Department of Energy’s 2009 Budget speaks to the importance of maximum transparency in such matters. It may also be interesting to note that $493 million of the $25 billion was allocated to Fusion Energy Services. Does transparency to such price discovery information serve positively the United States and others? Absolutely!

Professor Koleman Strumpf suggested that Intrade list a market on whether Blu-Ray Disc sales will outnumber HD-DVD disc sales in the United States in 2008. If an organisation’s employees or profits are potentially influenced by the outcome of this event, as were Toshiba’s, the main supporter of HDDVD, then access to such information is both valuable and gives opportunity for welfare maximisation.

Intrade has also listed, at the request of University of Westminster Business School, markets on whether the number of violent crimes committed in 2010 will be lower than those committed in 2007. Intrade has additionally listed at the request of a United States resident member of our platform a market on the impact of U.S. Government debt if a non-Democrat is elected president of the United States in 2008.

Professor Eric Zitzewitz, Professor Robin Hanson, Professor Justin Wolfers and others at the forefront of event market academia have all suggested event markets to Intrade in the past that have been listed and which provided event market information both for academic study and business and general public use.

Imagine if you were a resident of a state such as Florida that is frequently exposed to severe storms and how crucial information on the likelihood of a storm hitting your state can be if your business, family and friends are likely to be impacted by such an occurrence. Intrade lists event markets on such
eventualities.

The event markets listed on Intrade provide price discovery information on whether an earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on the Richter Scale will happen anywhere in the world in 2008; whether Avian Flu H5N1 is confirmed in the United States in 2008; whether the U.S. carries out an overt attack on North Korea; or even whether Robert Mugabe departs his presidency in 2008. These significant events are highly relevant to millions of people in the United States and elsewhere.

President Bush stated in an address on global climate change that: “This is a challenge that requires a 100 percent effort; ours, and the rest of the world’s.” It seems to us impossible to make a “100 percent effort” to address the challenge of climate change without using event markets to aggregate information, such as that provided by Intrade’s market on whether 2008 will be one of the warmest years ever recorded.

All of the markets cited above give information on the probability of the event occurring. Some of the information aggregated and distributed by Intrade has been more predictive than other. The predictive accuracy of Intrade’s event markets and event markets generally have been cited and studied extensively by academics and others including, but not limited to Professor Robin Hanson, Professor Charles Noussair, Professor David Paton, Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, Dr. David Pennock, Professor Eric Zitzewitz, Professor Mark Perry, Professor Erik Snowberg, Professor Marco Ottaviani, Professor Justin Wolfers, Professor Koleman Strumpf, and Professor Paul Tetlock.

Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade market data in the past, a service that Intrade intends to continue, for all study leads to an increase in transparency and understanding of event markets. It seems that the leading event market academics make no distinction between the benefits derived from academic owned markets like Iowa Electronic Markets and commercial market platforms like Intrade.

Yet many academics, with some notable exceptions, do temper their policy prescription to suggest a “safe harbor” for academic sites where research might be more generally available. As noted above Intrade has gladly supplied its event market data, typically free of charge to most of the leading prediction market academics and their students, and we are committed to encouraging the future study of event markets by continuing to supply our event market data free of charge or at very deep discounts. The academics that study event markets do a great service in developing our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of event markets. Some commentators suggest that market liquidity and breadth typically benefit all event market stakeholders. Thus far commercial platforms like Intrade seem to be providing the greatest depth and breadth in event markets.

As Intrade has been a staunch supporter of event market academic study, and supplies greater depth and liquidity in its event markets than any other platform, it seems strange not to be a preferred purveyor. Perhaps the predominant reason many academics have held back from advocating and treating all event markets alike is a sense that initiatives to clarify or unwind the legislation restraining the optimal development of event markets is unlikely to be achievable. It seems many academics and commentators suggest a slow bureaucratic and pragmatic caution rather than focus on the optimal result. While the optimal result may be more challenging to achieve, for consistency, for better price discovery for the benefit of all, as well as for the development of Intrade, we encourage CFTC to apply common goals, objectives and standards for all participants.

While some evidence and event markets have highlighted that event markets do not always provide robust predictive information, the preponderance of the research suggests that event markets have both the ability and track record of providing the best available information upon which decisions may be based or optimised. Of course the uncertain regulatory status of event markets constrains the development of liquidity, price discovery and by logical extension societal benefits.

Intrade has received testimonials from numerous U.S. regulated businesses and private citizens which state they would like to trade on certain event markets but are unable due to the regulatory uncertainty. Therefore, unless and until event markets are given a certain status they will not develop to their full potential.

Based on the above and comments by many others, some of whom have been mentioned by name in this comment, the price discovery mandate that the CFTC has can only be served if event markets are embraced.

In terms of offsetting price risk and the opportunity for hedging, the overwhelming majority of markets listed by Intrade can easily be seen to have underlying economic implications and risks. For example, U.S. tax rate changes, a negative geopolitical event, an increase in the threat level to homeland security and the associated costs of a higher threat level, or indeed Social Security reform all have massive economic justifications across society.

As with the CFTC’s price discovery mandate, it is impossible for us to imagine how risks can be optimally assessed and managed without the status of event markets being clarified.

The CFTC are also sensitive to retaining the competitiveness of futures markets and retaining “competition in the global marketplace”. There has been much written about the United States losing its edge in global financial markets. Often cited is that burdensome and inflexible regulations, most notably the Sarbanes-Oxley legislation passed by Congress in 2002, are driving business to London, Hong Kong, Frankfurt and elsewhere. In this regard, the CFTC has an opportunity to be a world first and embrace event markets. In so doing the CFTC will ensure the United States’ leadership position is encouraged for the important and growing event market industry.

The greatest challenge in bringing about an appropriate and successful embrace of event markets by the CFTC is unlikely to be identifying and agreeing that the public good will be served, or that risks may be better managed. The challenge for the CFTC may well be the uncertainties relating to legal and jurisdiction issues. In these matters there are experts far better versed than Intrade to opine.

The financial events of the last six months in which virtually the entire world financial system stopped functioning to a greater or lesser extent has highlighted what can happen when many of the world’s largest financial institutions make concurrent similar mistakes. Such systemic contagion has led commentators to suggest a more fundamental approach to how and what we regulate. Where event markets are concerned we are hopeful that this is the case and that the level of regulation is such that the evolving stage of the event market industry is not stifled.

We are proud to be at the forefront of the development of the event market industry. We are determined to continue providing the best information on relevant event markets to the widest audience. We wish to solidify our regulatory position in the U.S. and elsewhere. We strongly encourage the CFTC to clarify the situation with regard to event markets for the benefit of all, even if there are costs to Intrade. We are highly optimistic that the CFTC will grasp this opportunity to benefit all society and we wish to serve our own most important role in an industry niche that we have been privileged to help shape.

Respectfully Submitted on behalf of the entire Intrade Team by
John Delaney
Chief Executive Officer

CC to Fax 202.418.5521 and e-mail: secretary@cftc.gov.

1. “Intrade … isn’t just an entertaining Web site. It is the latest iteration of one of the most important economic developments of modern times.” David Leonhardt, Economics Reporter, The New York Times, February 14, 2007

2. Costs of regulation are high in the U.S., “that’s a key reason the leading commercial prediction market, Intrade, is based in Ireland” Prof Paul Tetlock, Wall Street Journal, May 11th 2007

3. “On Dec. 11, 2003, Intrade’s contract on Saddam Hussein’s capture suddenly began to move. … Two days later, Saddam was in custody.” Bill Saporito, Time Magazine, October 24, 2005

4. “At FORTUNE we often write about the latest hot company, but it’s rare that we get a chance to introduce you to an entirely new market… Intrade is the only efficient market system around for investing in, well, almost anything” Andy Serwer, Managing Editor, Fortune, August 8, 2005

5. 78% of traffic to Intrade.com in the period 1 January to 30 June was from the U.S.

6. “Intrade futures market ~ the greatest time-saving invention of this century.” John Tierney The New York Times

7. The Uncertainty Stress Scale: its development and psychometric properties. Can J Nurs Res. 1994 Fall;26(3):15-30, PMID: 7889446

8. As of June 30 2008

9. For many people, Intrade is the king of the prediction markets.” Stephen Dubner, Freakonomics, The New York Times July 5 2007

10. http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/book/sect5.pdf.

11. http://feedroom.businessweek.com/?fr_story=5a3aa8086dbd52b35ae21c7f5abe94f85fa0a8ab&rf=sitemap.

12. http://www.energy.gov/news/5920.htm

13. “Want straight answers on what will happen in politics and current events? Answers without partisan bias or wishful thinking? You can’t do much better than the prices at Intrade.” Professor Robin Hanson, Professor of Economics, George Mason University

14. “My forecast? Prediction markets will become ever more important to business and public policy. And Intrade are running the most interesting markets around.” Professor Justin Wolfers

15. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html

16. “Analysts can debate about a recession as much as they want, but talk is cheap. It’s great to have [Intrade] futures trade where people put money behind their beliefs!” Professor Mark J. Perry, University of Michigan-Flint

17. http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp07_Baker.pdf and http://knowledge.emory.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1015

18. “Regulatory Underkill,” Arthur Levitt Jr., Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2008

-

NEXT: More from John Delaney about regulations

-

Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)

-

• Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James Annan – (Global Environment Modelling Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
• Werner Antweiler – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Kenneth J. Arrow – Kenneth Arrow – (Economics Department, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tom W. Bell – Tom Bell – (Law School, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Joyce E. Berg – Joyce Berg – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Accounting, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Borghesi – (Finance, Texas State University at San Marcos, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Kay-Yut Chen – (Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, HP Labs, HP, California, U.S.A.)
• Yiling Chen – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Crampton – (Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, New Zealand) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Ely Dahan – (Marketing, Anderson School, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Anita Elberse – (Marketing, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Leslie R. Fine – Leslie Fine – (Information Dynamics Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Gary William Flake – Gary W. Flake – Gary Flake – (MicroSoft, U.S.A.)
• Robert Forsythe – (Dean, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida, Florida, U.S.A.) — Previously: (Economics, Iowa Electronic Markets, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Lance Fortnow – Lance J. Fortnow – (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Keith Jacks Gamble – Keith Gamble – (Economics (University of California at Berkeley) – California, U.S.A. — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Michael Gorham – (IIT Center for Financial Markets, Stuart School of Business, Illinois Institute of Technology, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Previously: (CFTC)
• Thomas S. Gruca – Thomas Gruca – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Marketing, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Refet Gurkaynak – (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)
• Friedrich August Von Hayek — R.I.P. — The market as an information aggregation tool: The Use of Knowledge in Society —
• Robert W. Hahn – Robert Hahn – (Executive Director, Reg-Markets Center, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James D. Hamilton – James Hamilton – (Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego – California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robin Hanson – Robin D. Hanson – (Economics, James M. Buchanan Center, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• M. Todd Henderson – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Chris Hibbert – (Software Architect, Zocalo Project Manager, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles Holt – Charles A. Holt – (Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – (Social Computing Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Frédéric Koessler – (Economics, Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, France, E.U.)
• Anthony M. Kwasnica – Anthony Kwasnica – (Business Economics, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Smeal College of Business Administration, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Nicolas Lambert – (Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• John O. Ledyard – John Ledyard – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• Andrew Leigh – (Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia)
• Steven Levitt – Steve Levitt – Steven D. Levitt – (Economics, Director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Saul Levmore – (Law School, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Robert E. Litan – Robert Litan – (Vice President for Research and Policy, Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Malone – Thomas Malone – Tom Malone – (MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Charles F. Manski – Charles Manski – (College of Arts and Sciences, Norwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Adam Meirowitz – (Department of Politics, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A.)
• Paul Milgrom – (Department of Economics, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tracy Mullen – (Information Sciences and Technology, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Forrest Nelson – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• George R. Neumann – George Neumann – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Ryan Oprea – Profile – (Director of the LEEPS laboratory, Economics, University of California at Santa Cruz, California, U.S.A.)
• Gerhard Ortner – (University of Applied Sciences, Austria, E.U.)
• Marco Ottaviani – (Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (Economics Department, London Business School, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• David Paton – (Industrial Economics, Business School, Nottingham University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• David M. Pennock – David Pennock – (Principal Research Scientist, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• David Porter – (Economics and Finance, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Todd Proebsting – Todd A. Proebsting – (Microsoft & University of Arizona, U.S.A.)
• Russ Ray – (Finance, College of Business, University of Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.)
• Daniel Reeves – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Paul W. Rhode – Paul Rhode – (US Economic History, College of Management, The University of Arizona, Arizona, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)
• Thomas A. Rietz – Thomas Rietz – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Finance, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Roll – (University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Ross – Thomas Ross – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Rahul Sami – (School of Information, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Sam L. Savage – Sam Savage – (Consulting Professor, Stanford U., California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Thomas C. Schelling – Thomas Schelling – (Economics, School of Public Affair, University of Maryland, Maryland, U.S.A.)
• Emile Servan-Schreiber – (NewsFutures, New York City, New York, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robert J. Shiller – Robert Shiller – Profile – (Economics, Yale University, Connecticut, U.S.A.)
• Bernd Skiera – (Electronic Commerce, Goethe University, Germany, E.U.)
• Vernon L. Smith – Vernon Smith – (Economics, Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Erik Snowberg – (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Soon at CalTech
• Peter Norman Sorensen – (Finance, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, E.U.)
• Martin Spann – (Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, E.U.)
• Koleman Strumpf – Koleman S. Strumpf – (Economics, School of Business, University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.) – Formerly: University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Cass Sunstein – Cass R. Sunstein – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• James Surowiecki – (The Wisdom Of Crowds) – (New York, U.S.A.)
• Paul C. Tetlock – Paul Tetlock – (Finance, Business School, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Philip Tetlock – Philip E. Tetlock – (Leadership, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Hal R. Varian – Hal Varian – (Chief Economist, Google, California, U.S.A.) — Formerly: (Haas School of Business, Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Dorina Tila – (Economics, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Leighton Vaughan-Williams – (Economics and Finance, Business School, Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• Michael Wellman – Michael P. Wellman – (Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Justin Wolfers – Justin J. Wolfers – (Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Zitzewitz – Eric W. Zitzewitz – (Economics, Dartmouth College, Massachusetts, USA) – Formerly: (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

1. On oversight: I suggest that initially this function be entirely limited to a monitoring and data archive function. Such information should be available for experimental, econometric, finance and other research scholars to study. If new regulatory rules governing rights to take action (“property rights”) are needed beyond those that emerge in the ordinary course of private institutional design for trading, let them evolve out of these research studies including examination by controlled testing in the laboratory. (Regulations controlling fraud, theft, deceiption, and so on already exist and would apply.) It was from experimental economics (in Iowa) that event contract trading first blossomed, and many ongoing research questions arise in dealing with contract design, event mesurement feasibility, etc. These are primarily empirical issues and the combination of field and experimental data made possible by the CFTC initiatives are of great importance.

2. Event markets do not constitute gambling. Gambling involves the deliberate creation of artificial zero-sum opportunities to engage in risk taking decisions that redistribute existing resources. Event contracts markets are in the class of variable-sum stock and derivatives’ markets in which information on the future outcome of productive and technological activities is dispersed, uncertain, and rendered valuable to society when aggregated into prices. The information priced in these markets enables actions to be taken that create wealth. Similarly, in event markets, better information made possible by trading event contracts produces social gains that make such activity wealth enhancing. Thus, if a futures market in Florida orange juice enables improved predictions of frost, better crop decisions enhance wealth creation and potential improvements in technology. Moreover, all these issues are important generators of testable hypotheses, which can help to inform both the extent to which they create social and economic value and whether new regulations are desirable.

3. Bear in mind that any limitation on the emergence of new market forms must necessarily run the risk of also limiting new forms of specialization and wealth creation. We need always to be open to such new possibilities.

-

THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES:

- CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.

- In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

- COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini

- A young economist rebuts the American Enterprise Institute.

-

BACKGROUND INFO:

- CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts… notably how they define “event markets”, how they are going to extend their “exemption” to other IEM-like prediction exchanges, and how they framed their questions to the public. Here are the comments sent to the CFTC.

- The Arnold & Porter lawyers explain the meaning of the CFTC’s concept release on “event markets”. — (PDF file)

- The Schulte & Roth & Zabel lawyers’ takes. — (PDF file)

- The Sullivan & Cromwell lawyers’ takes. — (PDF file)

- The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize the real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

-

APPENDIX:

Paul Wolfowitz’s profile at the American Enterprise Institute

- How the neo-cons drove the United States of America into the unecessary Iraq war

-

-

Oregon’s Democratic Primary

-

InTrade

-

BetFair

-

Kentucky’s Democratic Primary

-

InTrade

-

BetFair

-

NewsFutures

Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures

-

First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

-

2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

-

Next US President

-

Winning Party

-

Female President?

-

Democratic Candidate

-

Republican Candidate

-

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

-

Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

-

Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

-

Explainer On Prediction Markets

-

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

… asks ABC News (4 pages):

[...] NewsFutures creator Emile Servan-Schreiber believes that prediction markets like his are the “future of journalism.” [*] “It gives people the news of today and lets them give you the news of tomorrow in a probabilistic fashion by asking them to take bets on what is going to happen,” Servan-Schreiber said. [...]

While the money earned on NewsFutures isn’t real, Servan-Schreiber argues that prediction markets are an incredibly valuable tool. “I think of them as a brain,” he said. “You take a bunch of individually stupid neurons and put them together. Through massive interaction emerges intelligence. It’s the same thing with the market.” “The market really is smarter than the average player in there, and sometimes smarter than anyone in there, even the best player,” he said. This aggregation of many people’s opinions, Servan-Schreiber argued, produces an “incredible probability that the market prices really corresponds to the probability [of the event occurring].” [...]

“If you know nothing, you don’t participate,” he said. “It’s self-selection all the way. If you think you know something, and you don’t, you get eliminated very quickly.” [...]

-

[*] Prediction markets are one of the many futures of journalism, I would say. Like Emile, I’m bullish on prediction market journalism. But, as I implied in my previous post (where I cited extensively the meager but smiling Mike Linksvayer), PMJ is not for everyone —it should be the response to specific needs.

An other little remark. If I agree that prediction market journalism has a future, I would say that it won’t pass by the so-called “mainstream media”. Indeed, look at their first page, where they cited prediction markets and their prices/probabilities: ABC News didn’t link to those prediction markets.

-

Here’s my own short selection of NewsFutures prediction markets…

-

Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures

-

CERN will find the Higgs particle first.

© NewsFutures

-

Microsoft will buy Yahoo! in 2008.

© NewsFutures

-

Plenty of sports prediction markets here: baseball, basketball, hockey, auto-racing, American football, golf, tennis and soccer.

-