Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: financial tools

Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.

Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence):

Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. [...] .. ["stress test" = Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out]
Past shortfall doesn’t predict future shortfall. [...]
Bayesian [...]

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