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	<title>Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; Fast Company</title>
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	<description>Prediction Markets, etc.</description>
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		<title>Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/10/predictify-track-record/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/10/predictify-track-record/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jun 2008 10:41:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DSL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fast Company]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Agnich]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictify]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prognostics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reputations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Scoble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[surveys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[track records]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Robert Scoble interviews their CTO. Video - - Predictify is not a prediction exchange. We think prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys, don&#8217;t we? With Predictify, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it&#8217;s a poll &#8212;with &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/10/predictify-track-record/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="Crowds predict accurately?" href="http://scobleizer.com/2008/06/10/crowds-predict-accurately/">Robert Scoble interviews their CTO</a>.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.fastcompany.tv/video/using-crowds-predict-outcomes-predictify">Video</a></strong></p>
<p>-</p>
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<p>-</p>
<p><a href="http://www.predictify.com/">Predictify</a> is not a prediction exchange. We think <a title="POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson." href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-versus-prediction-markets/">prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys</a>, <a title="Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. â€” And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)â€¦ â€œnaiveâ€." href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/09/polls-prediction-markets/">don&#8217;t we</a>? <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':-D' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>With <a href="http://www.predictify.com/">Predictify</a>, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it&#8217;s a poll &#8212;with possibility to get down to each individual answer.</p>
<p><strong>Their conversation is very interesting, nevertheless &#8212;in great part due to Robert Scoble&#8217;s intense curiosity.</strong></p>
<p>Technically, the video is awesome and plays well &#8212;even with my old computer and slow DSL line. Kudos to the Fast Company techies. <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':-D' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p><strong>UPDATE: I don&#8217;t like that their video starts off automatically, though. With YouTube, we decide to play the video &#8212;it is not imposed on us.</strong></p>
<p>UPDATE: Alas, their embedded video does not go into the blog feed. <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_sad.gif' alt=':(' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>-</p>
<p>UPDATE: I e-mailed my remarks to Robert Scoble, and he&#8217;s asked to his techie to look into the issues. <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':-D' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>-</p>
<p>UPDATE: I see that the video does not start on its own, now. They managed to correct that. <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':-D' class='wp-smiley' />  Rest the fact that their videos don&#8217;t go into feeds.</p>
<p>-</p>
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