Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: expiry judge

In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site.

The blogs won the bet.
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site.
The bet has been expired on the “YES” side. Dave Winer (representing the bloggers) won —and Martin Nisenholtz (representing the New York Times —at [...]

BetFair: “Which of these parties will have more seats in the US Senate following the 2006 US Senate Elections?” – Chris Masse’s 6 Golden Rules of any Prediction Exchange

BetFair took the right decision:
Indeed, the floated prediction is the contract. Plus, the intent of the contract and the letter of the contract should always coincide, no matter what.
Chris Hibbert contested my 6 Golden Rules:
Chris Masse has suggested that the intent and the wording of a claim should always coincide. But this isn’t possible [...]

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