Tag Archives: exchange manager

Grave problem with MSR that Robin Hanson and/or exchange executives should address

When there’re few trades (in this case, only 3), the last price/probability is too much dependent on the initial price set up by the exchange manager. – Nigel, you f***ed it up. I want your apology letter posted on Midas … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

InTrade-TradeSports are fucking up contracts, once again.

Once again. I have been inundated with complaints from InTrade traders, since Christmas. Here’s the problem. InTrade traders tell me that the expiration dates for the Bloomberg and Gore announcement contracts have been extended —at InTrade’s whim. The contract statements, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Inkling’s Dead Radiohead Market

Radiohead’s pick-your-own-price experiment, industry redefining move, publicity stunt for their album “In Rainbows” has had its 15 days or so of fame. Is there anybody out there still caring? Maybe not. In fact, judging by Inkling’s own Radiohead prediction market, … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Any trader who is riding a winning position for the past few months has to hold it to expiry now or else pay 4% to take profit on his OLD position, which was clearly not written into the contract when he PUT THE POSITION ON. No exchange governed by U.S. law could ever get away with this without being sued into oblivion.

ttp://forum.tradesports.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/809603632/m/2611058432 Helpdesk: Hello. How may I help you? you: When I look at the rules/fees tab for a specific long-term contract, it says the fees are 4% of profit you: but this contract was open before 27/6 you: The new … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Transaction Costs | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What does the TradeSports/InTrade “split” really amount to?

TradeSports has been incorporated as a separate company in the Netherlands Antilles, while Intrade remains incorporated in Ireland, and they have split up the trading categories across the two websites. However, this looks sort of like a BetCRIS/BookMaker split, with … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Red Monitor’s marketing

Red Monitor CEO Hubertus Hofkirchner has posted two comments on my previous blog post. What strikes me is that this exchange manager focuses his discourse on market design. It’s an important element, granted. However, for a real-money prediction exchange starting … Continue reading

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BetFair’s Annual Review 2006: How did the world’s #1 real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) fare in 2005/2006?

Pretty good, thank you. British betting expert Niall O’Connor reports that “Betfair has announced that during the year to 30 April 2006, it recorded year-on-year revenue growth of 35 per cent to £144.7 million, with profits before tax up to … Continue reading

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