Tag Archives: Everyday Economist

Prediction Markets 101

Posted on January 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on advanced indicators (like polls … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, Chris Masse, definition, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Everyday Economist, explainer, George Tziralis, Jason Ruspini, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Justin Wolfers, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, meta forecasting tools, Michael Giberson, Mike Giberson, Nigel Eccles, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Steve Roman, USD | Leave a comment

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

We have witnessed a backlash against the prediction markets just after the Hew Hampshire fiasco. Some bloggers and journalists picked on the prediction markets (InTrade, that is), even though both the polls and the pundits were awfully wrong too. [*] … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Prediction Journalism | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, blog, bloggers, Chris Masse, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Everyday Economist, Felix Salmon, George Tziralis, Jason Ruspini, Jed Christiansen, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Justin Wolfers, Lance Fortnow, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mike Giberson, Nigel Eccles, PMIA, polls, Prediction Market Industry Association, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Sean Park, Steve Roman, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Wall Street Journal | 5 Comments

Tag Archives: Everyday Economist

Prediction Markets 101

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

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