Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Everyday Economist

Prediction Markets 101

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 12, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on advanced indicators (like polls and surveys). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market is a market [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 10, 2008 — 5 Comments

We have witnessed a backlash against the prediction markets just after the Hew Hampshire fiasco. Some bloggers and journalists picked on the prediction markets (InTrade, that is), even though both the polls and the pundits were awfully wrong too. [*] Here are the persons who participated in the pro-PM side of the debate:- Robin Hanson [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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