Midas Oracle .ORG » Eve Prob http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 17:20:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/07/final-intrade-v-zogby-showdown-results/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/07/final-intrade-v-zogby-showdown-results/#comments Wed, 07 May 2008 18:43:41 +0000 Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6855 Continue reading →]]> Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party’s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.

Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.

Standings
Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender Avg Eve Prob
7 3 11 59.5% Intrade 71.3%
3 7 11 40.5% Zogby 40.7%
Schedule
Score Date State Party Intrade Zogby Winner Intrade Pct Zogby Pct
7-3-11 6-May IN Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 85% 42%
6-3-11 6-May NC Dem Obama Obama Obama 90% 50%
6-3-10 22-Apr PA Dem Clinton Clinton Clinton 82% 47%
6-3-9 4-Mar OH Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 70% 45%
5-3-9 4-Mar TX Dem Obama 2-way-tie Clinton 57% 44%
5-2-9 5-Feb NJ Rep McCain McCain McCain 96% 52%
5-2-8 5-Feb NJ Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 67% 43%
4-2-8 5-Feb NY Rep McCain McCain McCain 98% 53%
4-2-7 5-Feb GA Dem Obama Obama Obama 96% 48%
4-2-6 5-Feb MO Dem Obama Obama Obama 63% 47%
4-2-5 5-Feb CA Rep McCain Romney McCain 56% 40%
3-2-5 5-Feb CA Dem Obama Obama Clinton 52% 46%
3-2-4 29-Jan FL Rep McCain 2-way-tie McCain 51% 33%
2-2-4 26-Jan SC Dem Obama Obama Obama 90% 38%
2-2-3 19-Jan SC Rep McCain McCain McCain 56% 29%
2-2-2 19-Jan NV Dem Obama Clinton Clinton 54% 42%
2-1-2 15-Jan MI Rep McCain 2-way tie Romney 54% 27%
2-0-2 8-Jan NH Dem Obama Obama Clinton 91% 39%
2-0-1 8-Jan NH Rep McCain McCain McCain 82% 34%
2-0-0 3-Jan IA Dem Obama 3-way tie Obama 54% 28%
1-0-0 3-Jan IA Rep Huckabee 2-way tie Huckabee 53% 28%

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Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/07/final-intrade-v-zogby-showdown-results/feed/ 9 Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/06/intrade-beats-zogby-on-super-tuesday/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/06/intrade-beats-zogby-on-super-tuesday/#comments Wed, 06 Feb 2008 14:01:44 +0000 Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/06/intrade-beats-zogby-on-super-tuesday/ Continue reading →]]> Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on election eve, while Zogby indicated a tie in NJ and Romney in California.

Standings        
Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender Avg Eve Prob
           
5 2 9 59.4% Intrade 69.6%
2 5 9 40.6% Zogby 39.2%

Contest-by-contest breakdown at Caveat Bettor.

I was disappointed that Zogby only presented polling on 7 of the 20 contests on Super Tuesday.

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