Tag Archives: Eve Prob

Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party’s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close. Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday

Posted on February 6, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments