Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: EUR

If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market).

Mark Davies of BetFair (PDF file):
International Leaders in Sport conference, Auckland, New Zealand. April 3-4th 2008.
Keynote speech, April 4th. Mark Davies, Betfair.
“New Understandings in Sports Betting”
Minister, ladies and gentlemen… Thank you very much for your kind invitation to speak to you today. I have once before been asked by sport to address it, as a [...]

How will the prediction markets respond?

Ireland’s largest bookmaker Paddy Power is already paying out on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the race to the White House. They decided yesterday to pay out 50000 Euros to punters who had backed him at odds ranging from 4-9 to 4-1.
After his stunning victory last week in the Iowa caucuses, [...]

TradeFair’s David Jack = the $20 million man

Hidden this morning deep into The Sunday Times:
Betfair, the online sports-betting firm, has invested £10m to launch Tradefair, a new subsidiary company specialising in bets on the financial markets. It believes that the market for financial betting could exceed £400m. [*] Tradefair will operate independently of its parent. [**]
£10 million = $20.3 million = [...]

Miles Rodgers, the British professional bettor, who heavily traded horse racing on BetFair, who was a suspect in the Fallon case, and who was cleared today.


£11 million = $22.3 million + €15.2 million

External Link on the Fallon Case: BBC News – (Thanks to our good friend Niall O’Connor for the tip.)

The Guardian…
[...] However, there had already been dialogue between the two parties about Miles Rodgers, who had attracted Betfair’s attention in late December 2002 when he used accounts with them [...]

Cocky speculator is betting that the European stock markets will crash soon.

Via Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets, Financial News:
An anonymous investor has placed a bet on an index of Europe’s top 50 stocks falling by a third by the end of September, as world equity markets plunged for a third day and volatility hit a three-year high. The mystery investor has bought put option contracts on [...]

Result of the 2007 French presidential election

UPDATE:
- French Republican Nicolas Sarkozy: 53,06%

If you have speculated on one of the candidates, you may want to know the result before the first quasi-official media reports (8:00 PM, Paris time). French laws prevent the French bloggers and media to report the first estimates before this time.
- The site to visit is the French-speaking, Swiss [...]

Were the NewsFutures real-money prediction markets on Dutch elections accurate?

NewsFutures blog post:
[...] At first glance, the quality of the market’s vote share predictions were somewhat disappointing compared to the three main polls [...] However, the story changes dramatically if, instead of looking at the predictions just before the election, we consider the predictions several weeks earlier. Four to seven weeks before election day, the [...]

Will the first commercial A380 be delivered by the 31st of October, 2007?

It’s a great prediction market. (((However, as I said last time, I really would like to see a “new orders of aircraft” prediction market —Airbus vs. Boeing.)))
No: 55%
Yes: 45%
Airbus has once again delayed the delivery of its first double-decker A380. Airbus Chief Executive Christian Streiff told reporters and analysts on a conference call it was [...]

Why NewsFutures Sucks – A disgruntled trader’s story

Via reader Jill Peters, a long and detailled blog post from an unhappy NewsFutures real-money trader from Holland. Let’s see whether his criticism is fair —if it’s possible for a third party to judge (we will see). Below is a collage of excerpts; emphasis are added.

Why NewsFutures sucks
In the past few months I’ve played on [...]

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