Midas Oracle .ORG » Emile Servan-Schreiber

In France, prediction markets are hyped by 2 bozo economists —David Thesmar and Augustin Landier.

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 18:21:22 +0000

Emile Servan-Schreiber is doing a great job of putting prediction markets on the French media scene. (As I type this, he is on French TV.)

2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (“predictive markets”, “stocks” *) and few references to hard facts. Their background is not stellar. They penned an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “The mega-crash won’t happen” [PDF file].

Of course, one year later, the developed world experienced (and is still experiencing) the worst financial crisis ever. What’s funny is that, in 2007, our 2 economists-in-chief were hyping the non-regulated credit derivatives that sent us into the depression, and denying the possibility of systemic risk. What a bunch of incompetents.

Emile, please recruit more serious people.

[*] The good vocabulary is “prediction markets”, and “traded bets” or “event derivatives”.

Next: French bozo economist Augustin Landier is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.

Next: French bozo economist David Thesmar is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.

Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + Probabilistic Predictions + Post-Mortem Predictions + Prediction Exchanges + Prediction Software + Publish Your Post + How To Publish

French TV anchor will launch a collective forecasting website.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 21:41:30 +0000

Patrick Poivre D’Arvor (alias “PPDA”) is said to be planning a social prediction website. Will it be powered by a prediction market technology, or else? Mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma.

UPDATE: A new play-money betting operator opens in France — but NewsFutures remains the best.

NewsFutures OKays “collective forecasting”.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 26 May 2009 16:19:16 +0000

Actually, Emile Servan-Schreiber has been using this term (“collecting forecasting“) for years. (Spot it under “competitive forecasting”.)

Emile, you’re a true pionneer, here. Congrats.

Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 25 May 2009 09:39:29 +0000

If you have been a feed subscriber of Midas Oracle for a long time (we started in 2006 here, and in 2003 for CFM), you know that I act as a gadfly. But there is a reason for that. If I were a simple stenographer, re-publishing press releases (and making friends with the prediction market people by doing so), you wouldn’t get the truth. Take the last instance.

I wrote that 2 EPM software providers (NewsFutures and CrowdCast, representing half of this industry) are turning their back from the trading technology and are opting for the non-trading technologies.
The NewsFutures CEO insisted to let the world know that, oh no, no, no, NewsFutures haven’t abandoned the trading technology, and that they are proud to be able to propose both to their customers.
That was a PR point he wanted to make (so as to sound that NewsFutures is the omni-solution provider, wow, you should be so impressed). But the piece of truth that our readers should have in mind is what I am telling them: NewsFutures and CrowdCast don’t believe anymore that EPMs are the right solution to propose to companies.
While you can have a very interesting conversation, privately, with Emile on that, all of the sudden, when a question is publicly asked to His Majesty, then the PR machine is all silent.

The question was:

NewsFutures does list here 4 tools. Could Emile tell us how popular each of these tools is? I would like a percentage for each of these 4 tools. In other words, could Emile quantify EPMs in the whole collective intelligence solution panorama? Is that inferior to 50% or superior to 50%? Please. Thanks.

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 22 May 2009 15:50:11 +0000

I am happy to run Emile Servan-Schreiber’s correction (well, correcting me ) on the fact that NewsFutures still provides EPM SaaS, since I love NewsFutures’s CDA technology as much as Chris Hibbert does. However, I maintain that providers of collective intelligence solutions for companies are turning their back to the trading technology, from what I gather. To wrap up this discussion, I would like to ask a question to Emile. NewsFutures does list here 4 tools. Could Emile tell us how popular each of these tools is? I would like a percentage for each of these 4 tools. In other words, could Emile quantify EPMs in the whole collective intelligence solution panorama? Is that inferior to 50% or superior to 50%? Please. Thanks.

The Fox… and the Hedgehog

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 07 May 2009 20:11:27 +0000

Emile Servan-Schreiber looks like the fox to me. He acknowledges a reality: the prediction market adoption problematic. (Leslie Fine is in the same boat.) Okay, but I want more proof. How come Inkling Markets administrators seem to be happy with MSR, then?

Adam Siegel is no hedgehog.

Addendum

Here is the definition of a fox (as opposed to a hedgehog):

a thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events;
a self-critical, eclectic thinker who is willing to update his/her beliefs when faced with contrary evidence, who is doubtful of grand schemes and is rather modest about his/her predictive ability.

Simpler Input Mechanisms

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:43:19 +0000

I really like what Emile Servan-Schreiber replied to Robin Hanson. I really like it. However, if I am correct NewsFutures never implemented MSR, so how can Emile be so affirmative? Rather, I would like to hear from Mat Fogarty or Leslie Fine (of Xpree/CrowdCast) who did implement MSR, and recently decided to move out to non-trading mechanisms.

UPDATE: The Fox… and the Hedgehog

Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business.

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:17:19 +0000

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures (responding to Paul Hewitt):

[...] The hard part, the real hurdles to acceptance are (i) to get wide and consistent participation, (ii) to overcome the suspicion of decision makers who naturally don’t like to be second-guessed by subordinates, (iii) to get the organization to agree to ask important questions instead of trivial ones.

Go also read Paul Hewitt’s take on Emile’s latest paper.

Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:50:56 +0000

Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom – (PDF file) – by NewsFutures’ Emile Servan-Schreiber – 2009-04-xx

UPDATE: Paul Hewitt’s take

How to make great use of the LinkedIn recommendation system

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:26:49 +0000

Mat Fogarty @ LinkedIn:

- “Mat is a funny, friendly and great person to work with. He’s highly entrepreneurial and innovative business leader, with passion and drive. I’d recommend Crowdcast to anyone – they know how to create best-of-breed online software products.” April 3, 2009

Joe Miles, General Manager, efp Markets, FC Group Ltd

- “Mat and I worked on numerous presentations and analyses for EA’s CFO, CEO and Board of Directors. Mat is not only detail-oriented but he also thinks strategically. Most importantly, I appreciate Mat as a person with high integrity.” September 4, 2007

James Lee, Investor Relations Manager, Electronic Arts

- “Mat is a great strategic thinker basing his decisions on the facts and cutting through the nonsense. Unlike many managers he also has the ability to execute on his strategies.” August 30, 2007

Eric Kress, Business Analyst, Electronic Arts

Awesome.

Stupidly, Adam Siegel and Emile Servan-Schreiber (Mat’s 2 main competitors) have not asked others to publish testimonies. They should wake up from their deep napping —before it is too late (that is, before CrowdCast becomes the de facto leader of the EPM software vendors).

Chris Hibbert (of Zocalo) has one great recommendation from one MIT-involved guy.