Prediction markets have value in complicated situations —only.

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I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

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Contents

• a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral college
• the latest news about the race for the White House
• a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state polls
• more prediction market probabilities

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PREDICTION MARKET PROBABILITIES

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- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

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- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

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- This is a dynamic electoral map from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

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LATEST NEWS

- Rush to Memeorandum, the Drudge Report and Real Clear Politics to check what are the most talked about issues of the day.

- The (sad) death of Barack Obama’s grandmother has reminded the voters that the Democratic nominee is both “black” (African-American) and “white” (Caucasian). That might reassure some white voters, and could diminish a bit the so-called “Bradley Effect” —which I don’t believe is a factor in this presidential race, anyway.

- The 2 November surprises (Barack Obama’s aunt is an “illegal alien” + Barack Obama believes in the usefulness of very high green taxes) have probably damaged Barack Obama’s attractiveness with the voters who believe in strict immigration control and the virtues of free markets.

- The US stock markets have (probably, temporarily) stopped spiraling into the abyss. (John McCain became more unpopular each time the stocks went down, these last weeks. So, when Wall Street is doing OK, it won’t help Barack Obama, additionally.)

- Beware the exit polls, they have proved to be somewhat unreliable, in the past. They have a Democratic bias.

- As for how this historic day will roll out, check Nate Slver‘s railroad at NewsWeek.

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STATE POLLS

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CNN:

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Pollster:

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Electoral-Vote.com:

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Nate Silver:

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PollTrack:

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MORE PREDICTION MARKET PROBABILITIES

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of the partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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- Listed below are the odds produced by the prediction exchanges. If you are interested in the predictions, we advise you to have a close look, first, at the real-money prediction markets (InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and the Iowa Electronic Markets). Now, if you want to have real fun interacting with the news, we recommend that you trade on the play-money prediction markets (HubDub and NewsFutures).

- If you want to visit one of those prediction exchanges, put your mouse on the selected dynamic chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab.

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2008 US Elections

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InTrade

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2008 US Electoral College

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- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

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- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

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2008 US Presidential Elections – By State

- To get to the InTrade prediction market webpage for a specific state, right-click the state link, and open it in another browser tab.

• State of Alabama – Democratic – Republican
• State of Alaska – Democratic – Republican
• State of Arizona – Democratic – Republican
• State of Arkansas – Democratic – Republican
• State of California – Democratic – Republican
• State of Colorado – Democratic – Republican
• District of Columbia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Connecticut – Democratic – Republican
• State of Delaware – Democratic – Republican
• State of Florida – Democratic – Republican
• State of Georgia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Hawaii – Democratic – Republican
• State of Idaho – Democratic – Republican
• State of Illinois – Democratic – Republican
• State of Indiana – Democratic – Republican
• State of Iowa – Democratic – Republican
• State of Kansas – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Kentucky – Democratic – Republican
• State of Louisiana – Democratic – Republican
• State of Maine – Democratic – Republican
• State of Maryland – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Massachusetts – Democratic – Republican
• State of Michigan – Democratic – Republican
• State of Minnesota – Democratic - Republican
• State of Mississippi – Democratic – Republican
• State of Missouri – Democratic – Republican
• State of Montana – Democratic – Republican
• State of Nebraska – Democratic – Republican
• State of Nevada – Democratic – Republican
• State of New Hampshire – Democratic – Republican
• State of New Jersey – Democratic – Republican
• State of New Mexico – Democratic – Republican
• State of New York – Democratic – Republican
• State of North Carolina – Democratic – Republican
• State of North Dakota – Democratic – Republican
• State of Ohio – Democratic – Republican
• State of Oklahoma – Democratic - Republican
• State of Oregon – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Pennsylvania – Democratic – Republican
• State of Rhode Island – Democratic – Republican
• State of South Carolina – Democratic – Republican
• State of South Dakota – Democratic – Republican
• State of Tennessee – Democratic – Republican
• State of Texas – Democratic – Republican
• State of Utah – Democratic – Republican
• State of Vermont – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Virginia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Washington – Democratic – Republican
• State of West Virginia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Wisconsin – Democratic – Republican
• State of Wyoming – Democratic – Republican

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Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

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- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage. – [The InTrade dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

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BetFair

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Winning Party

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Next US President

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- This is a dynamic compound chart from BetFair, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this BetFair widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

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Source:

- BetFair Politics Zone

- BetFair Chart Widgets – [They are based on Flash, a shitty technology that doesn't go into feeds.]

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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HubDub

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2008 US Presidential Elections

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- This is a dynamic electoral map from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

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- This is a dynamic compound chart from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds.]

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

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2008 US Senate Elections

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What will be the number of Democratic Seats in the Senate after the 08 Elections?

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2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

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What will be the number of Democratic Seats in House of Representatives after 08 Elections?

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NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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Swing States For The 2008 US Presidential Elections

- 2008 Electoral College

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- NewsFutures and Bet2Give used to have chart widgets on the US primaries, which didn’t go into feed readers. We are waiting for their next chart widgets.

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Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- CNN – US Electoral Map

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Pollster – Polls

- Poll Track – Polls

- Wikipedia – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

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Other Prediction Markets Related To The 2008 US Presidential Elections

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At what level will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close on Election Day?

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The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

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[This post was cross-posted from Midas Oracle .COM.]

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I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am heavily betting on Barack Obama for Florida and North Carolina. There will be a good payoff, next Tuesday —maybe.

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Who will win Florida in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 60 times out of 100, the favored outcome will occur; and 40 times out of 100, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. These event derivative traders feed on the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. (Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…) Armed with these bits of information, the speculators then trade based on their anticipations, which will be either confirmed or infirmed. Hence, the prediction markets (which are more than just an information aggregation mechanism) are a meta forecasting tool.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

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More Charts Of Prediction Markets

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IMPORTANT NOTE:

- Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets.

- Additionally, the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) is going to publish many posts per day about the US elections (scheduled for Tuesday November 4, 2008), as seen by the prediction markets —starting tomorrow morning. We will also cover many other prediction markets on non-political topics —when we think that they bring an interesting éclairage ( ).

- DO SUBSCRIBE TO THE OTHER BLOG, RIGHT NOW: http://www.midasoracle.com/feed/

- Use Google Reader to subscribe to blogs.

- Pssttt… If you don’t want to subscribe to the other blog, and want to stay with this present blog, don’t worry, that’s OK, we will continue to update you here with everything you should know about the prediction markets (including the US elections). The other blog is meant to bring much more to the news junkies, without bothering the readership of this present blog. So, if you choose to limit yourself to this present blog, that’s fine with us, and we will make sure you don’t miss anything important.

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

-

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

- Listed below are the odds produced by the prediction exchanges. If you are interested in the predictions, we advise you to have a close look, first, at the real-money prediction markets (InTrade, BetFair and the Iowa Electronic Markets). Now, if you want to have real fun interacting with the news, we recommend that you trade on the play-money prediction markets (HubDub and NewsFutures).

- If you want to visit one of those prediction exchanges, put your mouse on the selected dynamic chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab.

-

-

2008 US Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

2008 US Electoral College

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

-

2008 US Presidential Elections – By State

- To get to the InTrade prediction market webpage for a specific state, right-click the state link, and open it in another browser tab.

• State of Alabama – Democratic – Republican
• State of Alaska – Democratic – Republican
• State of Arizona – Democratic – Republican
• State of Arkansas – Democratic – Republican
• State of California – Democratic – Republican
• State of Colorado – Democratic – Republican
• District of Columbia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Connecticut – Democratic – Republican
• State of Delaware – Democratic – Republican
• State of Florida – Democratic – Republican
• State of Georgia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Hawaii – Democratic – Republican
• State of Idaho – Democratic – Republican
• State of Illinois – Democratic – Republican
• State of Indiana – Democratic – Republican
• State of Iowa – Democratic – Republican
• State of Kansas – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Kentucky – Democratic – Republican
• State of Louisiana – Democratic – Republican
• State of Maine – Democratic – Republican
• State of Maryland – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Massachusetts – Democratic – Republican
• State of Michigan – Democratic – Republican
• State of Minnesota – Democratic - Republican
• State of Mississippi – Democratic – Republican
• State of Missouri – Democratic – Republican
• State of Montana – Democratic – Republican
• State of Nebraska – Democratic – Republican
• State of Nevada – Democratic – Republican
• State of New Hampshire – Democratic – Republican
• State of New Jersey – Democratic – Republican
• State of New Mexico – Democratic – Republican
• State of New York – Democratic – Republican
• State of North Carolina – Democratic – Republican
• State of North Dakota – Democratic – Republican
• State of Ohio – Democratic – Republican
• State of Oklahoma – Democratic - Republican
• State of Oregon – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Pennsylvania – Democratic – Republican
• State of Rhode Island – Democratic – Republican
• State of South Carolina – Democratic – Republican
• State of South Dakota – Democratic – Republican
• State of Tennessee – Democratic – Republican
• State of Texas – Democratic – Republican
• State of Utah – Democratic – Republican
• State of Vermont – Democratic – Republican
• Commonwealth of Virginia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Washington – Democratic – Republican
• State of West Virginia – Democratic – Republican
• State of Wisconsin – Democratic – Republican
• State of Wyoming – Democratic – Republican

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Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

-

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage. – [The InTrade dynamic charts listed below go into feeds. ]

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Senate Control

-

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

-

Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

-

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BetFair

-

Winning Party

-

Next US President

-

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this BetFair widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

-

-

Source:

- BetFair Politics Zone

- BetFair Chart Widgets – (They are based on Flash, a shitty technology that doesn’t go into feeds. )

-

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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HubDub

-

2008 US Presidential Elections

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds. ]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

-

-

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds. ]

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

-

2008 US Senate Elections

-

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds. ]

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in the Senate after the 08 Elections?

-

2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

-

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds. ]

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in House of Representatives after 08 Elections?

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NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

-

- NewsFutures and Bet2Give used to have chart widgets on the US primaries, which didn’t go into feed readers. We are waiting for their next chart widgets.

-

-

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

-

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UK Elections

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BetFair

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Next General Election – Most Seats

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Next UK Prime Minister

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InTrade

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Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

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UK Conservatives

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UK Labour

-

-

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

-

-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

-

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

-

-

2008 US Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

2008 US Electoral College

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.

-

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

-

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Senate Control

-

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

-

Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

-

-

BetFair

-

Winning Party

-

Next US President

-

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

-

-

Iowa Electronic Markets

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

-

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

-

-

NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

-

-

HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

-

-

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

-

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Canadian Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

-

Conservatives

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Liberal

-

-

BetFair

-

2008 Federal Election

-

Most Seats

-

Overall Majority

-

-

UK Elections

-

-

BetFair

-

Next General Election – Most Seats

-

Next UK Prime Minister

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

-

UK Conservatives

-

UK Labour

-

-

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

-

Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

-

-

-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

-

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

-

-

2008 US Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

2008 US Electoral College

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.

-

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

-

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Senate Control

-

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

-

Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

-

-

BetFair

-

Winning Party

-

Next US President

-

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

-

-

Iowa Electronic Markets

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

-

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

-

-

NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

-

-

HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

-

-

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

-

-

Canadian Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

-

Conservatives

-

Liberal

-

-

BetFair

-

2008 Federal Election

-

Most Seats

-

Overall Majority

-

-

UK Elections

-

-

BetFair

-

Next General Election – Most Seats

-

Next UK Prime Minister

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

-

UK Conservatives

-

UK Labour

-

-

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

-

Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

-

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.]

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.]

-

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

-

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

-

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

-

-

2008 US Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

2008 US Electoral College

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.

-

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

-

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Senate Control

-

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

-

Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

-

-

BetFair

-

Winning Party

-

Next US President

-

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

-

-

Iowa Electronic Markets

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

-

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

-

-

NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

-

-

HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

-

-

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

-

-

Canadian Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

-

Conservatives

-

Liberal

-

-

BetFair

-

2008 Federal Election

-

Most Seats

-

Overall Majority

-

-

UK Elections

-

-

BetFair

-

Next General Election – Most Seats

-

Next UK Prime Minister

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

-

UK Conservatives

-

UK Labour

-

-

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

-

Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

-

-

-

-

For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our “Predictions” page, or visit our webpage listing all the main prediction exchanges.

-

Right now the electoral college markets are tracking the polls pretty closely. I think we’ll see some divergence when we get close to the election since the polls can’t keep up. In past elections the markets were much better than the polls within a few days before the election (though not on election day itself which has too many rumors).

Other thoughts:
- There is a long-shot bias —states which are above 85% (for one candidate or the other) reflect a probability closer to 100%.
- The state markets are strongly correlated. There is a small but non-trivial chance that many states will be way off this year. And then people will be reluctant to trust the electoral college markets in the future.

So, I have (at least) one answer to my series of provocative questions: Electoral college prediction markets are more useful than the state polls towards the very end of the presidential campaign (but not on Election Day). Interesting. Thanks.

PS: The discussion about this post goes on in the comment area of another post.

InTrade – Electoral Markets Map

Their brand-new widget:

More charts of prediction markets on our “predictions” webpage.

-

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).

By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.

-

-

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

-

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

-

-

2008 US Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

2008 US Electoral College

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

-

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.

-

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

-

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

-

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

-

2008 US Senate Control

-

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

-

Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

-

-

BetFair

-

Winning Party

-

Next US President

-

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

-

-

Iowa Electronic Markets

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

-

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

-

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

-

-

NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

-

Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

-

-

HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

-

-

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

-

-

Canadian Elections

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

-

Conservatives

-

Liberal

-

-

BetFair

-

2008 Federal Election

-

Most Seats

-

Overall Majority

-

-

UK Elections

-

-

BetFair

-

Next General Election – Most Seats

-

Next UK Prime Minister

-

-

InTrade

-

Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

-

UK Conservatives

-

UK Labour

-

-

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

-

Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

-

-

For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our “Predictions” page, or visit our webpage listing all the main prediction exchanges.

-

-