Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Eddy Elfenbein

Investors care if stock XYZ in their portfolio is going to go up or down. That’s it.

Eddy Elfenbein lectures Felix Salmon:
July 15th, 2009
4:52 am GMT
Felix,
I hate to deluge you with comments today but I really have to take exception to this post.
One of the big problems with the financial blogosphere is that a huge part of the conversation takes place at 40,000 feet. Have you ever talked with an investor as [...]

Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street:
I written about this topic before but one of the things I find fascinating about finance is how you can use markets for two items to create an “implied market” for a third. This idea is at the root of all the complex financial instruments that caused problems for so [...]

Implied Tradesports Markets – Implied Democratic House Gain

A favorite topic of Eddy Elfenbein. (I gave him an award for that in 2005.)
As of the last trade, the market believes the Democrats have a 60.2% chance of gaining at least 19.5 seats, and a 46.9% of gaining 24.5 seats. A 60.2% chance is +0.258 standard deviations, and a 46.9% chance is -0.078 standard [...]

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