Tag Archives: economic analyst

Business Overconfidence as seen thru Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets

Bo Cowgill: At OVERCOMING BIAS, Robin Hanson blogs about the overconfidence of CEOs, CFOs and software managers. Our paper also measured overconfidence in the workplace. We found that our marketplace was overconfident as a whole, although the market’s optimistic bias … Continue reading

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Tim Harford on office micro-geography (and Google’s enterprise prediction markets)

Tim Harford: [...] We keep being told that because of cheap, ubiquitous communication technology, distance is dead. But if there was ever a company that we should expect to exemplify that idea, surely it was Google. This research suggests that … Continue reading

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Organizational Sociology & Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets

Graduate student Ben Spigel’s comment on Richard Florida’s blog: About a decade ago, a group of cognitive scientists looking at Bell Labs found that all things being equal, the chances of two scientists collaborating was 4 times higher if they … Continue reading

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Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets –to say the least.

Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution: This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets. Finally, somebody who speaks the truth. See … Continue reading

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ROBIN HANSON TELLS THE TRUTH ON GOOGLE’S ENTERPRISE PREDICTION MARKETS.

Robin Hanson: Yes prediction markets are cool, Google is cool, and it is cool that Google had location data to show how location influences trading. But cool need not be useful. People are not asking the hard questions here: what … Continue reading

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Have Google’s enterprise prediction markets been accurate?

Justin Wolfers: So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?” and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation. I am more interested in the accuracy of the … Continue reading

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Google’s enterprise prediction markets = a slavery instrument based on self-fulling prophecies?

Search engine expert Barry Schwartz: [...] Why does Google encourage such activity from their employees? [...] It also helps stimulate an “optimism bias,” which in turn encourages Google employees to work harder to achieve a certain outcome they have predicted … Continue reading

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The Google currency, the Goobles, was part of the Master Plan.

Via Googlescoped —on that page, search for “Goobles” within your browser. Related Note: Yahoo! currency = the Yootles External Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill … Continue reading

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Micro-geography analysis of trading in Google’s enterprise prediction markets

Bo Cowgill’s main points, in his own words: Traders in the same location tend to make the same trades at the same time. Although we did find strong correlations among professional and social contacts, these were substantially weaker than the … Continue reading

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THE GOOGLE MICRO-GEOGRAPHY PICTURE THAT WAS POSTED AND THEN DELETED BY THE PORTFOLIO MAGAZINE’S BLOGGER

Zubin Jelveh’s post (which first version, which featured the picture, was retrieved thanks to… Google Reader ): The green shows people in Google‘s New York City office who are winning money and the red shows the losers [pic URL]. UPDATE … Continue reading

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