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Photo: Alan Lewis

Alex Kirtland: Finally, Meg Whitman recently talked about how important improving the eBay user experience is to success of eBay. How has that had an impact on the culture / work style of eBay’s development teams?

Alan Lewis: This shift has been in motion for many years, actually. For a long time at eBay, the biggest problem was scale. Much of the engineering effort and time spent developing the website would go into things that the user would never see. We got better and better at keeping the site up, and we got to a place where we were more confident in our ability to handle the continued growth. So a few years back we started to put a much higher priority on improving the user experience, which we all knew was in need of improvement.

The reorganization that was done at the beginning of 2007 was by no means the first step – as I said the company as a whole recognized the problem long before that. The executives, I think, realized that the company had to be structured differently to tackle the user experience improvements that were needed.

As somebody “in the trenches” here at eBay I have been very pleased with how the culture has shifted. People are willing to take more risks now. When I propose doing something, it is rare that I hear someone saying “no, that’ll never work,” but instead they will say “ok, let’s try that out and see what we can learn from it.”

A message that our prediction exchanges and prediction software vendors should listen to.

Corporate and Operational Overview

Corporate Overview

Betfair is a registered bookmaker in the UK, where it operates an online betting exchange. Betfair also operates under licences in Australia, Austria and Malta and is seeking licences elsewhere within the European Union and further afield, notably in South Africa. Betfair welcomes regulation and is committed to paying the appropriate product fees in every market in which it operates.

Betfair’s main source of income is from bets placed on its exchange, from which – in line with other betting operators – it derives its money by paying out less in winnings than it takes in in losses. This core activity will continue to grow as Betfair gains access to new markets and more people turn to the internet as their preferred betting channel. Betfair is developing new revenue streams, such as providing price feeds from the exchange via its API (Application Programming Interface) to third parties, white label exchanges, and through the Betfair Mobile product.

Betfair Games, which operates Betfair Poker and Betfair Casino, as well as other exchange-enabled games, is hosted from Malta under a licence which was granted in May 2005. The Maltese licence enables Betfair to offer these products as well as the innovative P2P games, based on the betting exchange concept, to its customers.

Betfair has invested significantly in technology and employs over 200 engineers to produce one of the fastest and most resilient betting platforms available on the internet today. Betfair processes more than 5 million transactions a day and more than 300 bets a second. Supported by Oracle, Betfair processes 99.9 per cent of bets in less than one second. Betfair has more than 1,000,000 registered users and over 100,000 active monthly users.

Betfair employs over 1000 people in its offices in Hammersmith, west London, Stevenage, Dublin, Australia, Malta and Denmark. Since its launch in 2000, Betfair has won several prestigious awards, including in 2003 the Queen’s Award for Enterprise in the Innovation category from the Department of Trade and Industry and in 2004 Company of the Year at the Confederation of British Industry Growing Business Awards. Betfair became the first ever company to retain its title of ‘Company of the Year’ at the 2005 Growing Business Awards. In 2002 its founders Andrew Black and Edward Wray jointly won the Ernst and Young Emerging Entrepreneur of the Year award.

Operational and Product Overview

Operating Activities:

Betfair Ltd – A company incorporated and registered in England and Wales providing the sports betting exchange product.

Betfair Games Limited – A company incorporated and registered in Malta providing the Betfair Games product.

Betfair Poker Limited – A company incorporated and registered in Malta providing the Betfair Poker product.

Betfair Casino Limited – A company incorporated and registered in Malta providing the Betfair Casino product.

Betfair Australasia PTY Limited – A joint-venture company incorporated and registered in Australia operating under a licence issued by Tasmanian Gaming Commission providing the Australian Exchange.

Betfair Counterparty Services Limited – A company incorporated and registered in Malta providing the Betfair Multiples product.

TSE Development Ltd – A company incorporated and registered in England and Wales which exploits the intellectual property of The Sporting Exchange Limited (parent company of Betfair Limited and its subsidiaries).

Betfair pioneered the betting exchange concept. Based on the New York Stock Exchange, a betting exchange allows punters to bet at odds set by other punters rather than the bookmaker itself. Betfair’s bookmaking model results in odds which, according to one study, are on average more than 20 per cent better than the starting prices offered by conventional bookmakers. Bets are only accepted by the exchange if the full risk of each can be matched with a punter or set of punters with the opposite view. Any unmatched bets are voided, either by the punter or by the exchange at the start of an event. Betfair has no interest in the outcome of any event, as it makes its money from charging a small commission on net winnings.

Betfair has given punters greater control. They can now directly express a view that an event will happen or won’t happen. Betfair also offers genuine ‘in- running’ betting, including all horse races. Since prices tend to fluctuate during the course of an event, ‘in-play’ betting is a truly exciting development for punters, who are now able to “trade” their betting positions. Horse racing is the dominant product, followed by soccer. Golf, cricket and tennis are growth areas because of their international following and because they are well-suited to “in-play” betting.

Strategy

Our aim is simple: we want to be the unassailable choice of the punter by providing the best value, service and protection. We intend to achieve this through continued investment in our technology to ensure that our betting platform is the fastest and most resilient available on the internet; through staff training and through the adoption of best practice in relation to customer protection.

Betfair has a long-standing policy of not accepting US customers, funds or bets and in that regard ensures that it is able to detect and block unwanted usage. Betfair will only operate and market in countries in which it believes that it is legally able to do so.

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FAQs
Please find below some frequently asked questions about Betfair and betting exchanges.

Background Information

Q. What is Betfair?
A. Betfair is a registered bookmaker in the UK with additional licences in Australia, Austria and Malta. It operates a ‘betting exchange’ model which is a concept it pioneered.

Q. What is a Betting Exchange?
A. A betting exchange is a bookmaker that offsets all its risk through the use of sophisticated technology. This brings together two counterparties with directly opposing views and often results in better odds being available to all customers.

Q. When did it start?
A. Betfair launched in June 2000 and was the brainchild of Andrew Black, a former professional punter and derivatives pricing modeller. He partnered with Edward Wray a former JP Morgan Vice President and the company was formed. Andrew (known as ‘Bert’) still works at Betfair today, whilst Ed is non-executive Chairman.

Q. Who owns Betfair?
A. Betfair is a privately owned company with a range of shareholders.

Q. Have you won any awards?
A. Betfair is very proud to have won a number of awards. These include a Queen’s Award for Enterprise in the Innovations Category, an extremely prestigious business award in the UK. We are also the only company to have won the ‘Company of the Year’ award from the CBI twice, in 2004 and 2005.

Business Metrics

Q. How many customers do you have?
A. We have in excess of 1,000,000 registered customers with over 100,000 active in any given week.

Q. Where do your customers come from?
A. They come from over 140 different countries and on any one day over 50% of new registrations come from outside the UK where Betfair originated.

Q. What do your customers bet on?
A. Betfair offers a range of betting products. For sports betting there are over 50 different sports on the exchange covering events from 122 different countries. We regularly have football from 30 different countries and cover over 1000 horse races each week, added to this is a large range of other subjects such as reality TV and financial markets. Sports betting on betfair.com is complimented by an online poker site betfairpoker.com, an online casino with an innovative zero edge, and a set of unique Exchange Games offered by betfairgames.com.

Q. Where are you based?
A. Betfair HQ is situated in Hammersmith, London. We have a large call centre in Stevenage (about 40 miles north of London) and a Southern Hemisphere office currently being developed in Hobart, Tasmania. In addition to this we have a number of satellite offices around Europe including Malta, Denmark and Germany.

Q. How many staff do you have?
A. Currently 1000 around the world but expanding all the time.

Betfair’s Technology

Q. What technology platform do you use?
A. We use Oracle on Sun Solaris for our database servers. Our software is proprietary, custom software developed by us. Betex was launched in September 2003, it is a brand new n-tier J2EE based exchange platform and allows punters to place bets globally in 18 different languages.

Q. How good is your IT?
A. Betfair’s business is founded upon technology which has proven itself to be far ahead of the competition. We match over 5,000,000 bets a day which is 15 times as many as the London Stock Exchange (Betfair has the added burden of 24/7/365 operation and settlement is immediate). Oracle view Betfair as one of their top five most important customers in the world today which puts us alongside the likes of eBay and Google.

Q. What sort of volumes do you deal with?
A. At peak times Betfair matches over 5,000,000 transactions a day, serves over 3 billion page requests per week and 99.99% of our bets are handled sub-second. The technology required to do this is immense and requires significant investment and development time.

Tax Questions

Q. How do you make your money?
A. People betting on the exchange pay commission of between 2-5% from their net winnings on each betting market. Losing customers pay no commission. With our poker product customers pay a set fee (known as rake) in the same way as many other online poker sites.

Q. How much tax do we pay?
A. In the UK we pay tax in exactly the same way as every other bookmaker; that is a gross profits tax at 15%.

Q. Why is gross profit taxation a good system?
A. It provides a level playing field for all types of bookmaking. Historically other systems of taxation have favoured the more traditional bookmakers who do not have the technology to offset their risk as efficiently as Betfair does. In the modern world where internet access is widespread it is easy for customers to move around to many different suppliers and find value for money.

If a system of taxation exists in any jurisdiction which prevents high volume/low margin bookmakers (such as Betfair) from competing then customers will simply choose to bet through the internet with an offshore provider or worse are pushed into the unlicensed, unregulated black market in search of value.

A gross profits tax allows all types of bookmakers to compete for custom on an even footing and ensures a well regulated and safe environment for all punters.

Integrity Issues

Q. What is a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)?
A. This is the name we give to an information sharing agreement signed by Betfair and a sport governing body. It allows us to share certain information about betting patterns and customer behaviour for that particular sport. We currently have 25 such agreements with many international sporting bodies and aim to cover every betting market we offer in the future. Betfair has taken an industry-leading stance.

Q. How do you monitor betting?
A. We have a large integrity team of specialists who monitor the betting patterns across all the betting markets offered by Betfair. They use a combination of software tools and experience. As the details of every bet are recorded any market can be investigated, current or historic.

Street address of BetFair corporate office (BetFair headquarters):

BetFair
The Waterfront, Hammersmith Embankment
Winslow Road – (Chancellors Road)
London, England
W6 9HP, United Kingdom, European Union

• BetFair – Markets — BetFair Lite — Betfair Mobile —
• BetFair RSS feeds - (a.k.a. BetFair Results Service) —
• BetFair Historical Data —
• BetFair Calendar —
• BetFair Extras —
• BetFair Forum —
• BetFair Radio — BetFair Live Video — BetFair TV – TV Listings —
• BetFair – Site Map – (HTML) —
• Entry point for traders: BetFair Member — My BetFair — Betfair – Know Your Customer (KYC) — Betfair Payments —
• Sub-websites: BetFair dot Info — BetFair Promo — BetFair Demo — Betfair – About Us – (including BetFair Charges) — BetFair FAQs — BetFair Help & BetFair – Help —
• BetFair Service — BetFair Content — BetFair Content Cache — BetFair Cache —
• BetFair Live Odds — BetFair Live Odds Comparison — BetFair Live Odds Comparison disclosure —
• Betfair Solutions Directory — Betfair Developers Program — Betfair Developers – Find-A-Developer —
• BetFair – Refer & Earn —
• BetFair Labs — BetFair Preview —
• BetFair by TimeForm — BetFair Racing – (Time Form) — TimeForm —
• Greyhound Racing Guide —
• BetFair Soccer Zone — BetFair American Football Zone — BetFair Basketball Zone — BetFair Baseball Zone — BetFair Tennis Zone — BetFair Rugby Zone — BetFair Cricket Zone —
• BetFair’s partner: Stats on Sport —
• The Official BetFair News Site — BetFair InPlay – (montly magazine) —
• BetFair – Australia – (Technopark, Glenorchy, Hobard, Tasmania, Australia) — 50% owned by Australia-based Packer family’s Publishing and Broadcasting Limited (PBL). — Traders should use the Australian wallet.
• BetFair – Germany – (Germany, E.U.) — Deutsche Sportwett GmbH of Dresden (DSG) acts an intermediary between customers and Betfair in respect of the transmission of betting data and other personal data.
• Licensed in Austria and Malta. — South Africa, next.
• Inactive websites: BetFair USA — BetFair Europe — BetFair Ireland — BetFair France — BetFair Italy — BetFair Spain — BetFair .NET (unclaimed) —
• Memorandums of understanding with European, U.K. and Australian sporting bodies —
• Betfair Corporate — BetFair is owned by The Sporting Exchange Ltd. — Founded in 1999 by Andrew Black and Edward Wray, and launched in 2000. —
• BetFair is regulated by U.K.’s Gambling Commission. —
• BetFair is a member of the Independent Betting Arbitration Service. —
• BetFair — SportsBook Review rating: A+  (Scale: A+ to F-) — Bookmakers Review rating: 4.5+ / 5 —
• BetFair prediction markets: chart file extension & deep links = Chris Masse’s tips

Q: Briefly, what is Intrade?
A: InTrade is a marketplace, just like eBay or the NYSE, that provides innovative markets to trade, and the best darn predictive information on uncertain future events bar none!

InTrade is a prediction exchange (betting exchange) that organizes the trading of event derivatives. It specializes in non-sports prediction markets. (For sports prediction markets, see its sister site, TradeSports.)

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John Delaney:

A: [...] We listed a market on whether the U.S. Government would formally report that North Korea tested a missile in a certain manner. While the media reported that North Koreans did test a missile, it was not confirmed in an official U.S. Government release as was required in the market rules, so we settled the market according to the strict interpretation of the rules and not the understood intention of the market. This was understandably a real issue for some of our members and also for Intrade. It was a bad situation for everyone, really. We have learned from it.

The North Korea Missile prediction market has been the biggest scandal in this young industry.

—

Event derivative trader “Vancheeswaran”:

BULLSHIT.

Bryan Whitman (Bryan.Whitman@osd.mil) explicitly stated in print, in press conferences, and by email that North Korea fired multiple missiles into the Sea of Japan.

For instance, “North Korea fired a long-range Taepodong-2 missile and six short- and medium-range Scud and Nodong missiles. All landed in the Sea of Japan without incident.”

National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, in a press conference at the White House, stated that the missiles “went out about 275 miles” into the Sea of Japan.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/07/20060704-1.html

There are many other examples of the U.S. military and government (not just the press) confirming that the missiles were launched and approximately where they landed.

John Delaney is completely misrepresenting what happened, just as he did at the time of the launches.

Mark Longo chats with Russell Andersson, co-founder of the on-line derivatives exchange HedgeStreet.
- HedgeStreet’s Unique Approach To Binary Event Derivatives
- HedgeStreet’s Struggle To Overcome The Stigma of the DARPA Terrorism Futures Exchange
- Can HedgeStreet Avoid Offending Its Customers As It Expands Into Potentially Questionable New Markets
- Why Is It So Difficult To Find Liquidity Providers For Binary Derivatives
- The Triumphs & Tribulations of HedgeStreet’s Partnerships With CBOE, SIG & DRW.
- What The Future Holds For The Binary Derivatives Market

- The binary event derivatives are “structurally interesting”.

- The rise of the “prediction markets” helps HedgeStreet.

- Markets are extremely useful as information aggregation mechanism.

- Human market making at HedgeStreet.

- “Perception” [??] that the size of the spread is too wide.

- “Building an exchange is challenging.” Be patient. It is complex. “It will take time.” The retail derivatives market has a huge future.

- The new [??] HedgeStreet CEO has a background in consumer products, not in derivatives.

- Originally, HedgeStreet was seen as the eBay of risks. Now, they want to go after the active traders. They will be less consumer-oriented in the future. They will focus on the “active segment”, which is growing —the financial event derivatives.

- EPS prediction markets – M&A prediction markets – etc.

- Credit event derivatives – HedgeStreet won’t do them.

—

Two issues weren’t addressed: the market design of the HedgeStreet prediction markets, and the prediction markets on sports and politics.

—

Yesterday, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer ran a story entitled “Betting web site’s computers seized.” Within hours, bloggers and other news outlets picked up the story and translated it into something akin to “Betcha shut down.”

Problem: the translation isn’t true. (WARNING: if tails of government bureaucrats running roughshod over its citizens turns your stomach, stop reading here.)

What’s Happening

What happened was this. Last Friday, Betcha’s attorneys and I met with the state Gambling Commission to address their concerns. They had us drive to their offices in Lacey, WA, about an hour from Betcha’s offices. The meeting lasted all of about five minutes, with it ending in a deputy commissioner handing us a pre-printed Cease and Desist order. I’ll attached a PDF copy of it later, but the gist of it was “shut down or else.” Why she couldn’t have told us this over the phone I am not sure — I suspect it had something to do with making my Friday afternoon a very expensive one. (Tax dollars hard at work.) At almost the exact same moment, Seattle lawyer Lee Rousso was, coincidentally, filing a lawsuit in state court asking the court to declare the state’s anti-Internet gambling ban unconstitutional. Although the law has previously been criticized on First Amendment grounds, and the Commission has taken positions in the past that appear pretty tough to square with any notion of free speech [], Mr. Rousso’s challenge is based on the Commerce Clause — that is, the law seeks to protect the in-state Native American casinos from out-of-state competition, and is therefore unconstitutional.

On Monday, I arrived to the offices early to unlock the doors so the raiders wouldn’t bust them down. (Not cheap to replace a busted down door.) A few hours later, Commission enforcers, indeed, showed up and took everything. Our books, our posters, my business cards — everything. (The warrant wasn’t limited – among other things, it included “stamps,” “printers,” “scanners,” “jewelry,” “envelopes”, “napkins”, “cardboard coasters” and “keys.”) No one from Betcha was there — not a good way to start the week, being on the business end of a roving commission. Ironically, my wife stopped by during the raid and chatted up Rick Herrington, the chief Raider (read: head of Commission enforcement.) When my wife asked Mr. Herrington whether they’d be selling our equipment on eBay, he shrugged his shoulders, as if to say “maybe yes, maybe no.” He then told her “Nick should have come to us first about this.” This exchange I find revealing: it seems that the Commission is more interested in ruining me and Betcha than anything else. Why? Because we’re near their turf.

As troubling was how the conversation continued. According to my wife, Mr. Herrington repeated several times “he’s breaking the law, he’s breaking the law.” When she told him that that was a judge’s decision, he replied “doesn’t matter, he’s still breaking the law.” (If that’s not guilty until proven innocent, I don’t know what is.)
On Tuesday, we petitioned a state court in Olympia to enjoin the Commission from this “seize and threaten now, ask questions later” approach. It almost never happens that a court will enjoin law enforcement from enforcing its version of the law, no matter how warped that version may be. This is an extraordinary remedy and we didn’t get it yesterday, although it wasn’t for lack of fantastic work by our lawyer.

The hearing wasn’t without substantial incident and irony. Apparently, although several people at both the Commission and Attorney General’s office had been served with our papers via fax, e-mail, and PDF, someone at the Commission did not receive an original copy of one of the documents, as required by the state service statute. As a result, we could not proceed until we could prove someone at the Commission had been served with an original copy of this document. We then had to race across Olympia to the Commission’s office in a nearby town to serve the Commissioner himself — personally. (Not a single person in the legal department was working on that glorious 94-degree Tuesday — go figure.) The irony — exactitude matters big time to the Commission when it comes to serving paperwork that they already had. But precision in reading a criminal statute that may result in me doing years in the Gray Bar Hotel, not to mention wiping out a fair bit of investor capital and no less than seven years of man work — nah.

What’s Next

In terms of next steps, the situation is this. We are pursuing an action to get a court to declare Betcha legal. If the law and/or the Constitution matters in Washington (open question, that), I am confident Betcha will prevail. In the meantime, however, we face a Cease and Desist Order from a Commission that appears hell-bent on destroying Betcha at all costs. We’re going to review it in detail later today and decide on a course of action. We may have to take the betting-for-money part of the site down until we get on the other side of the steamroller.

You can rest assured, however, about our resolve. The government bureaucracy has been running roughshod over the citizens of this country for far too long. [] Prosecutors make up facts, legislators make it a crime to play poker in your own home, bureaucrats rewrite the laws, logic and the dictionary — and we’re all left at their mercy. The frog is boiling and the water’s getting hotter every day. I pledge to the friends and users of Betcha.com that I will do my part to turn the heat down. If that means rotting in jail, so be it.

The text above appeared on Nick Jenkins’ blog at Betcha.com. Visit the original blog post to see all the links inserted in his text, and which don’t appear above.

Previous: IT DIDN’T TAKE LONG. NICK JENKINS’ BETCHA.COM GETS BUSTED THREE WEEKS AFTER LAUNCH.

Problem: the translation isn’t true. (WARNING: if tails of government bureaucrats running roughshod over its citizens turns your stomach, stop reading here.)

What’s Happening
What happened was this. Last Friday, Betcha’s attorneys and I met with the state Gambling Commission to address their concerns. They had us drive to their offices in Lacey, WA, about an hour from Betcha’s offices. The meeting lasted all of about five minutes, with it ending in a deputy commissioner handing us a pre-printed Cease and Desist order. I’ll attached a PDF copy of it later, but the gist of it was “shut down or else.” Why she couldn’t have told us this over the phone I am not sure — I suspect it had something to do with making my Friday afternoon a very expensive one. (Tax dollars hard at work.) At almost the exact same moment, Seattle lawyer Lee Rousso was, coincidentally, filing a lawsuit in state court asking the court to declare the state’s anti-Internet gambling ban unconstitutional. Although the law has previously been criticized on First Amendment grounds [1|2], and the Commission has taken positions in the past that appear pretty tough to square with any notion of free speech (an example), Mr. Rousso’s challenge is based on the Commerce Clause — that is, the law seeks to protect the in-state Native American casinos from out-of-state competition, and is therefore unconstitutional.

On Monday, I arrived to the offices early to unlock the doors so the raiders wouldn’t bust them down. (Not cheap to replace a busted down door.) A few hours later, Commission enforcers, indeed, showed up and took everything. Our books, our posters, my business cards — everything. (The warrant wasn’t limited – among other things, it included “stamps,” “printers,” “scanners,” “jewelry,” “envelopes”, “napkins”, “cardboard coasters” and “keys.”) No one from Betcha was there — not a good way to start the week, being on the business end of a roving commission. Ironically, my wife stopped by during the raid and chatted up Rick Herrington, the chief Raider (read: head of Commission enforcement.) When my wife asked Mr. Herrington whether they’d be selling our equipment on eBay, he shrugged his shoulders, as if to say “maybe yes, maybe no.” He then told her “Nick should have come to us first about this.” This exchange I find revealing: it seems that the Commission is more interested in ruining me and Betcha than anything else. Why? Because we’re near their turf.

As troubling was how the conversation continued. According to my wife, Mr. Herrington repeated several times “he’s breaking the law, he’s breaking the law.” When she told him that that was a judge’s decision, he replied “doesn’t matter, he’s still breaking the law.” (If that’s not guilty until proven innocent, I don’t know what is.)

On Tuesday, we petitioned a state court in Olympia to enjoin the Commission from this “seize and threaten now, ask questions later” approach. It almost never happens that a court will enjoin law enforcement from enforcing its version of the law, no matter how warped that version may be. This is an extraordinary remedy and we didn’t get it yesterday, although it wasn’t for lack of fantastic work by our lawyer.

The hearing wasn’t without substantial incident and irony. Apparently, although several people at both the Commission and Attorney General’s office had been served with our papers via fax, e-mail, and PDF, someone at the Commission did not receive an original copy of one of the documents, as required by the state service statute. As a result, we could not proceed until we could prove someone at the Commission had been served with an original copy of this document. We then had to race across Olympia to the Commission’s office in a nearby town to serve the one of the Commissioners himself — personally. (Not a single person in the legal department was working on that glorious 94-degree Tuesday — go figure.) The irony — exactitude matters big time to the Commission when it comes to serving paperwork that they already had. But precision in reading a criminal statute that may result in me doing years in the Gray Bar Hotel, not to mention wiping out a fair bit of investor capital and no less than seven years of man work — nah.

What’s Next
In terms of next steps, the situation is this. We are pursuing an action to get a court to declare Betcha legal. If the law and/or the Constitution matters in Washington (open question, that), I am confident Betcha will prevail. In the meantime, however, we face a Cease and Desist Order from a Commission that appears hell-bent on destroying Betcha at all costs. We’re going to review it in detail later today and decide on a course of action. We may have to take the betting-for-money part of the site down until we get on the other side of the steamroller.

You can rest assured, however, about our resolve. The government bureaucracy has been running roughshod over the citizens of this country for far too long. (Check out this book or BoilingFrog.com, among other sites, for some examples.) Prosecutors make up facts, legislators make it a crime to play poker in your own home, bureaucrats rewrite the laws, logic and the dictionary — and we’re all left at their mercy. The frog is boiling and the water’s getting hotter every day. I pledge to the friends and users of Betcha.com that I will do my part to turn the heat down. If that means rotting in jail, so be it.

Cross-posted from the Betcha.com blog

Betcha.com has given that question a lot of thought. Its FAQ explains “(1) we spent thousands of man hours analyzing this and point and related ones, (2) our analysis encompassed U.S. federal law and the law of all 50 states, and (3) we are betting our very freedom that our analysis is spot on . . . .” As Betcha.com’s management realizes, however, even that effort cannot guarantee certainty; the quoted passage continues “. . . . [but] it isn’t as though some Almighty Power came down from the heavens and deemed us ‘legal.’ That’s not the way the law works.” (I have to think that Betcha.com’s founder, Nick Jenkins, wrote that bit. He describes himself as a “journeyman lawyer,” after all.)

Query whether Betcha.com can avoid the fate of the P2P betting service, BetBug.com, the owner of which at one time touted it as “the only legal way to offer online sports betting in the US.” Now, of course, BetBug has gone on hiatus, explaining that “[w]hile we continue to believe that BetBug’s true peer-to-peer software does abide by all major Federal gaming laws in the United States, the current legal environment seriously deters our chances of success.”

Betcha.com would doubtless argue that its honor-based payment system distinguishes it from BetBug.com. “If you don’t absolutely have to pay,” Betcha.com would explain, “it’s not gambling.” Note, however, that to say you don’t “absolutely have to pay” on a losing bet is not to say that you would risk nothing by so doing. To the contrary, you would risk seriously hurting the “Honor Rating” that Betcha.com assigns its users.

As Betcha.com’s FAQ explains, “A person’s Honor Rating is a measure of his trustworthiness on the Betcha Platform. Think of it as akin to a cross between a credit rating and a reputation score.” We might likewise analogize it to commercial goodwill—an asset that, while intangible, can be worth quite a lot. Someone with a poor Honor Rating on Betcha.com would, like someone with a low reputation score on eBay, effectively end up out of business.

The chink in Betcha.com’s legal armor thus lies in how authorities regard the Honor Rating. If they think it constitutes an intangible asset, one lost by customers who don’t pay off their bets, then Betcha.com might lose its gamble against the law. I’d regret that, naturally; we all lose when the law prevents us from peacefully disposing of our property as we alone see fit. But I have to say that, were I betting on legal hacks, I’d favor BetZip.com’s over Betcha.com’s.

[Crossposted to Agoraphilia and The Technology Liberation Front.]