Midas Oracle .ORG » Dow Jones

How far will the Dow fall before the end of 2009?

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:11:57 +0000

The definitive proof that HubDub is an indispensable prediction exchange. [*]

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:52:11 +0000

As I told you, I am blogging as often as possible on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) about the 2008 US presidential elections as seen thru the eyes of the prediction markets. As I wrote there this morning, I have just found out a truly interesting set of prediction markets at HubDub. (I wasn’t able to find its equivalent on InTrade, BetFair, or NewsFutures.) It’s trying to predict where the Dow Jones will be, come November 4, 2008. (As you may remember, the deeper the financial crisis, the more likely it is that Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States.)

As of this morning, the Dow Jones is barely above the 8,000 level (8,175.77), and the futures say that the stock market will rebound, at least in the first hours. However, I am bearish. I would bet that the Dow Jones will stay around the current level (or lower) until Election Day. In other words, I am betting on the red, on the chart below.

At what level will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close on Election Day?

[*] And if Emile (whom we highly respect, overall) is pissed off by that statement, then, great, that’s a cool unintended collateral consequence.

“InTrade’s market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.”

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:59:10 +0000

UPDATE: Some smart comments, just below…

Would President John McCain be bad for the US economy?

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 16:11:29 +0000

Barry Ritholtz’s comment:

So far, nearly all readers understood this to be tongue in cheek (sarcasm).

I knew, Barry.

WARREN BUFFETT: I said that the US dollar might be “worth less” in five to ten years —not that it might be “worthless”.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 21:00:35 +0000

Hilarious. Right-click on the image to open the link in another tab. Enjoy.

After CNBC, FBN will be another TV venue for the prediction markets.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 10:07:01 +0000

Variety:

“They [CNBC] dwell too much on failures and scandals and politics,” he said. “We want to spend a lot of time on innovation, successes and people who are making money.” Murdoch said the launch of FBN [Fox Business Network], and the acquisition of Dow Jones [and The Wall Street Journal] coincide with what he believes to be “a unique point in history” where demand for financial information will increase for decades as prosperity and entrepreneurial culture spread around the globe.

Competition is good. I like Rupert Murdoch, after all.

Rupert Murdoch WILL get the Wall Street Journal.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 26 Jul 2007 21:07:37 +0000

News Corp and Dow Jones to complete merger on/before 31st December 2007

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Static chart:

HEDGESTREET: Earnings Per Share Prediction Markets + Merger And Acquisition Prediction Markets

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 03 Jul 2007 15:35:58 +0000

US-based, CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchange HedgeStreet:

Earnings Per Share Event Derivatives
Wal-Mart Stores
Exxon Mobil
3M
Amazon.com
Apple
Boeing
Caterpillar
Citigroup
Ford Motor
Genentech, Inc.
Google
Halliburton
Intel
McDonald’s
Microsoft
Motorola
Pfizer
Yahoo
Bebe
Costco Wholesale
Dell
Electronic Arts (EA)
Hewlett-Packard
NYSE Euronext
Time Warner
UAL
Walt Disney

Merger And Acquisition Event Derivatives
Siruis/Xm
Yahoo/Microsoft
Newscorp /Dow Jones
Hershey / Cadbury
ISe / Deutsche Bourse
ISE / NYSE
Nasdaq / PHLX
Google / Salesforce
Upperdeck / Topps

Quite impressive list.

Previous: EPS Prediction Markets = Earnings Per Share Prediction Markets

EU Seeks Compensation From US For Banning Online Gambling.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 08:25:54 +0000

Dow Jones:

The European Union told the U.S. Tuesday that it wanted compensation for a U.S. foreign online gambling sites ban that doesn’t comply with global trade rules.

CNBC ALERT: HedgeStreet’s Russell Andersson – 2:50pm ET – Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 17:48:02 +0000

CNBC – (& CNBC Europe, I believe) – Topic: Corporate Mergers & Acquisitions

HedgeStreet “Binary Options” contracts on corporate mergers and acquisitions:

- NYSE & ISE
- Microsoft & Yahoo!
- Hershey & Cadbury
- Deutsche Borse & ISE
- News Corp & Dow Jones
- Sirius Satellite & XM Satellite Radio
- Nasdaq & PHLX (the Philadelphia Stock Exchange)

Previous: Mergers & Acquisitions prediction markets at InTrade-TradeSports

InTrade-TradeSports:

- XM and Sirius Satellite Merger
- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Merger
- NYSE and ISE Merger
- Microsoft and Yahoo Merger
- Hershey and Cadbury Merger
- Deutsche Borse and ISE Merger
- News Corp and Dow Jones Merger
- NASDAQ and Philadelphia Stock Exchange Merger

Click on â€œFinancialâ€ on the left menu.