Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Department of the Treasury

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]

Are U.S. banks capable of stopping transactions tied to event derivative traders made for speculating at InTrade-TradeSports and MatchBook?

New York Times:

Congress to Take Testimony on Internet Gambling Ban
By Matt Richtel

The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 made it illegal for banks and other financial institutions to process online wagers. The goal was to find an indirect way to regulate offshore casinos [... and sportsbooks... and real-money prediction exchanges...], which are outside the [...]

Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?

That sounds like a good prediction market proposal.
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As you all know:

The SEC regulates the securities markets (which support capital formation).
The CFTC regulates the futures markets (which exist to discover prices).
The SEC is rules based, meaning it sets regulations that institutions must follow, while the CFTC is principles based, in that it sets broad [...]

Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) urged Attorney General General Gonzales to enforce the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (UIGEA).

Lawrence G. Walters:
[...] First, Sen. Kyl strongly urged Gonzales to agree that there is a need for “strong regulations.” Gonzales did so agree.
Next, Sen. Kyl pushed Gonzales to agree that the regulations would include a requirement that banks and financial institutions receive a list of specific bank accounts that belonged to known online gambling establishments, [...]

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