Tag Archives: Democratic candidate

Barack Obama is the “presumptive” nominee of the Democratic party.

Posted on June 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Cocky HubDub has just expired the contract. InTrade and BetFair did not. InTrade will expire the Democratic candidate contract when the Democratic party declares their nominee at their convention. BetFair does not state anything. Maybe they’re too shy to tell. … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Andrew Sulivan, Barack Obama, BetFair, Brad Stewart, Democratic, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, InTrade, Politics, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections | 4 Comments

He asks questions; you’ll provide answers.

Posted on May 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I would like to ask the U.S. contributors to Midas Oracle what they would make of a prediction market for the 2012 Democratic nomination where one contender was backed heavily, at any price, despite losing every single primary heavily for … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, GBP, Hillary Clinton, Maria Sharapova, Monica Seles, Player, prediction markets, soccer, sports prediction market, tennis, tennis player, United Kingdom, United States, USD | 22 Comments

Testing the new HubDub chart widgets

Posted on May 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

.hdwg div {color:inherit;font:inherit} .hdwg a{font:inherit} .hdwg div{margin:0px} .hdwg img {border:0px;padding:0px} .hdwg img {padding:0px} what is this? Who will the 2008 Democratic candidate for President be? % chance over time Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John Edwards Someone else Get this widget … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Software | Tagged Barack Obama, compound charts, Democratic candidate, dynamic charts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, John Edwards, John McCain, market widgets, Mike Bloomberg, Mike Huckabee, news markers, prediction market data visualization, prediction markets, prediction widgets, President, Ralph Nader, Ron Paul, United States, widgets | 3 Comments

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

Posted on May 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Oregon’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – Kentucky’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – NewsFutures Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention. Â© NewsFutures – First look at individual states for … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Florida, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Kentucky, meta forecasting tools, Montana, NewsFutures, Oregon, Politics, Portland, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Waterfront Park, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 2 Comments

Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate): A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, HubDub, Indiana, InTrade, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Lawrence O'Donnell, leftist journalist, meta forecasting tools, NBC, NBC Nightly News, NewsFutures, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, senior campaign official, Tim Russert, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Posted on April 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted. So, if you live in … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 Pennsylvania primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Catholic Church, Democratic, Democratic candidate, democrats, Hamas, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, InTrade, Los Angeles Times, meta forecasting tools, Michael Moore, Michigan, NewsFutures, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Stephen Colbert, Ted Kennedy, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Given the remaining contests –many with electorates favorable to Obama– Obama’s existing hundred-plus delegate lead, and the rules by which Democrats apportion delegates, it is almost a political and mathematical certainty that Obama will have an elected delegate lead at the end of the process, barring dramatic, unforeseen circumstances.

Posted on March 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

So Clinton lives to run for another seven weeks. But if you believe in the power of numbers, the candidate of inevitability is Barack Obama. – - Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, delegate, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, meta forecasting tools, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, So Clinton, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Winning Party | 4 Comments

Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama

Posted on March 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Noam Scheiber: 1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas. 2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas. 3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas. I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets. – The Democrats … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, CNN US, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Noam Scheiber, Ohio, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Rhode Island, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Senate, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Vermont, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Counting the Democratic delegates, and courting the Democratic super-delegates (a kind of aristocracy within the so-called Democratic party).

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | Leave a comment

The 2008 US presidential election as seen thru the prism of the BetFair prediction markets

Posted on February 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

— Next US President — Winning Party — Female President? — Democratic Candidate — Republican Candidate — Source: BetFair Politics Zone — More Charts

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, GOP, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, republicans, Super Tuesday, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Winning Party | Leave a comment

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