Tag Archives: Delphi

Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago

Posted on July 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Third: July 9th, 2008 – 1:25pm Opening Remarks – 1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences – Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm) Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber) – Speaker: Todd Henderson … Continue reading →

Posted in Events & Meetings | Tagged Abe Othman, Andreas Graefe, Benoit Delbecq, Chicago, Clemens van Dinther, David Ubilava, Delphi, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, George Tziralis, Hajime Mizuyama, Ivan Corwin, J. Scott Armstrong, Justin Wolfers, Kenneth A. Foster, meetings, Michael Abramowicz, Nominal Groups, Panos Ipeirotis, prediction markets, Prediction Markets Compared, speaker, Stefan Luckner, Stefan Stathel, Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, Todd H. Kuethe, Todd Henderson, Todd Kuethe, United States | Leave a comment

The best research papers on prediction markets

Posted on June 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

As seen by Andreas Graefe… IIFâ€™s SIG on Prediction Markets Research Papers Basics Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g. – Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Tagged academic papers, academic research, American Magazine, Andreas Graefe, betting exchange, betting markets, California, California Institute of Technology, cellular telephone, Delphi, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, Hanson, Hewlett-Packard, Hollywood Stock Exchange, IEEE Intelligent Systems, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of Political Economy, National Football League, NEC Research Institute, No.1131, North Carolina, OSCAR, Pasadena, Pennock, Porter, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Research, the field, University of North Carolina, Web Market Games | Leave a comment

RAND CORPORATION, the world’s most prestigious think tank, is a NewsFutures client.

Posted on June 11, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

NewsFutures’ clients: The world’s largest steel maker. CORNING Display Technologies. Japan’s largest advertising firm. Voted “most innovative” pharmaceutical company in Fortune‘s 2003 and 2004 rankings. The US packaged foods giant. Giant U.S. Pharmaceutical. Leading provider of objective analysis and effective … Continue reading →

Posted in Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged advertising, artificial intelligence, computing, crisis management, Delphi, Display Technologies, electronics, energy, Europe, Germany, Germany's global powerhouse, Giant U.S. Pharmaceutical, health insurance, health services, Insurance, internet brand, Japan, leader, NewsFutures, objective analysis and effective solutions, pharmaceutical, prediction markets, RAND CORPORATION, space systems, steel maker, technology applications, Texas Department of Transportation, then-U.S. Department of Health, United States, ZAR | Leave a comment

European Foresight Project Launches Prediction Market.

Posted on June 10, 2007 by Andreas Graefe

In line with the European foresight project EPIS run by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commissionâ€™s Joint Research Centre, which aims at predicting long-term developments in the content industry, the non-commercial play-money prediction market TechForX has … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Delphi, European Commission's Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, internet advertising, internet user, navigation tools, on television advertising, Online self-publication, Search Engines, www.techforx.org | 3 Comments

Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Posted on February 21, 2007 by Barry Ritholtz

Every now and again, I read something that simply makes my head spin. This [] New York Times article on prediction markets was just such a head-spinning column. It reached such a bizarre conclusion that it begs for comment. Longtime … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged CEO, David Leonhardt, Delphi, Hawaii, Howard Dean, Iowa, Michael Jackson Trial, Morgan Stanley, New York Times, Purcell, Republican Party, Senate, the Times, United States, Wall Street | 3 Comments

Barry Ritholtz takes aim at Chris Masse.

Posted on February 20, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Big Picture on prediction markets: These market mechanisms are hardly the Oracles of Delphi their supporters make them out to be. Barry Ritholtz is entitled to his opinion —cherry-picking the prediction market failures and forgetting the successes. I prefer … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged Barry Ritholtz, Chris Masse, David Pennock, Delphi, Eric Zitzewitz, Justin Wolfers, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 6 Comments

Vertical, public prediction exchanges

Posted on January 26, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

About Alex Kirtland’s blog post. #1. I fully agree that vertical prediction exchanges (a la HSX) are performing a better service than vertical lines in a generalist prediction exchange. (I had some thoughts on that, last year.) #2. The vertical … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics | Tagged Alex Kirtland, Alex Kirtland (Farmetrics), Delphi, founder, Google, observer, USD | 3 Comments

Why are prediction markets not “as common as economists might expect”?

Posted on November 7, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Professor Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution wrote (with in mind, probably, his old blog post about internal prediction markets): The costs of building coalitions are also a neglected element in the theory of organizations. Even in the private sector, once … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged Delphi, economist, Guy Kawasaki, Hawaii, Hawaii islands, institution designer, Pacific Ocean, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen | Leave a comment

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