Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Delphi

Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 1, 2008 — Leave a Comment

The Third:
July 9th, 2008
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1:25pm Opening Remarks
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1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences
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Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm)

Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber)

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Speaker: Todd Henderson (1:45-2:05pm)

Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance (Michael Abramowicz and Todd Henderson)
Predicting Crime (Todd Henderson, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz)

Discussion (2:05pm – 2:15pm)
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2:20pm-3:10pm [...]

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The best research papers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 11, 2008 — Leave a Comment

As seen by Andreas Graefe…
IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
Research Papers
Basics
Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g.
- Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting, Management Science, 49, 1310-1326. [Full text]
- Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. (2006). Prediction Markets in [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

RAND CORPORATION, the world’s most prestigious think tank, is a NewsFutures client.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 11, 2007 — Leave a Comment

NewsFutures’ clients:

The world’s largest steel maker.
CORNING
Display Technologies.

Japan’s largest advertising firm.

Voted “most innovative” pharmaceutical company in Fortune’s 2003 and 2004 rankings.

The US packaged foods giant.

Giant U.S. Pharmaceutical.

Leading provider of objective analysis and effective solutions.

One of the world’s leading providers of outsourcing and IT services.

Europe’s leader in corrugated packaging.

Germany’s global powerhouse in electrical engineering and electronics.

Texas [...]

Posted in Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

European Foresight Project Launches Prediction Market.

Written by Andreas Graefe on June 10, 2007 — 3 Comments

In line with the European foresight project EPIS run by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, which aims at predicting long-term developments in the content industry, the non-commercial play-money prediction market TechForX has been launched parallel to a Delphi study.
While in [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Written by Barry Ritholtz on February 21, 2007 — 3 Comments

Every now and again, I read something that simply makes my head spin. This [] New York Times article on prediction markets was just such a head-spinning column. It reached such a bizarre conclusion that it begs for comment.
Longtime readers are familiar with my views on prediction markets. I believe they have some value, when [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Barry Ritholtz takes aim at Chris Masse.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 20, 2007 — 6 Comments

The Big Picture on prediction markets:
These market mechanisms are hardly the Oracles of Delphi their supporters make them out to be.
Barry Ritholtz is entitled to his opinion —cherry-picking the prediction market failures and forgetting the successes. I prefer listening to Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, Robin Hanson, Paul Tetlock, Koleman Strumpf, David Pennock, etc. They are [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta) | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

Vertical, public prediction exchanges

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 26, 2007 — 3 Comments

About Alex Kirtland’s blog post.
#1. I fully agree that vertical prediction exchanges (a la HSX) are performing a better service than vertical lines in a generalist prediction exchange. (I had some thoughts on that, last year.)
#2. The vertical prediction exchange that Alex Kirtland is talking about has popped up on Delicious and other places, because, [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics | Also tagged , , , , ,

Why are prediction markets not “as common as economists might expect”?

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 7, 2006 — Leave a Comment

Professor Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution wrote (with in mind, probably, his old blog post about internal prediction markets):
The costs of building coalitions are also a neglected element in the theory of organizations. Even in the private sector, once we consider cohesion and morale, businesses have many fewer degrees of freedom than we might [...]

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