Tag Archives: Delphi

Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago

The Third: July 9th, 2008 – 1:25pm Opening Remarks – 1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences – Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm) Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber) – Speaker: Todd Henderson … Continue reading

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The best research papers on prediction markets

As seen by Andreas Graefe… IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets Research Papers Basics Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g. – Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets … Continue reading

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RAND CORPORATION, the world’s most prestigious think tank, is a NewsFutures client.

NewsFutures’ clients: The world’s largest steel maker. CORNING Display Technologies. Japan’s largest advertising firm. Voted “most innovative” pharmaceutical company in Fortune‘s 2003 and 2004 rankings. The US packaged foods giant. Giant U.S. Pharmaceutical. Leading provider of objective analysis and effective … Continue reading

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European Foresight Project Launches Prediction Market.

In line with the European foresight project EPIS run by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, which aims at predicting long-term developments in the content industry, the non-commercial play-money prediction market TechForX has … Continue reading

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Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Every now and again, I read something that simply makes my head spin. This [] New York Times article on prediction markets was just such a head-spinning column. It reached such a bizarre conclusion that it begs for comment. Longtime … Continue reading

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Barry Ritholtz takes aim at Chris Masse.

The Big Picture on prediction markets: These market mechanisms are hardly the Oracles of Delphi their supporters make them out to be. Barry Ritholtz is entitled to his opinion —cherry-picking the prediction market failures and forgetting the successes. I prefer … Continue reading

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Vertical, public prediction exchanges

About Alex Kirtland’s blog post. #1. I fully agree that vertical prediction exchanges (a la HSX) are performing a better service than vertical lines in a generalist prediction exchange. (I had some thoughts on that, last year.) #2. The vertical … Continue reading

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Why are prediction markets not “as common as economists might expect”?

Professor Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution wrote (with in mind, probably, his old blog post about internal prediction markets): The costs of building coalitions are also a neglected element in the theory of organizations. Even in the private sector, once … Continue reading

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