Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: decision-aid tool

BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets — CFM’s Views

GOOD NEWS: BetFair-TradeFair are minding the prediction markets.
BAD NEWS: There is a bunch of chaps at BetFair who are monkeying around with the concept of prediction markets.

THEIR INTENT IS NOBLE.
Mark Davies, Betfair’s Managing Director Corporate Affairs, said:
Whilst these climate markets are experimental, they demonstrate a commitment to use our assets to innovate and make a [...]

I think Robin’s being too hard on himself.

That’s what I was told by someone who knows him [Robin Hanson] for more than just years.
So I figured out I should write up a little something, especially since I saw this morning that my previous blog post (Is GMU professor Robin Hanson an inventor, an innovator, or… a complete loser??) was yesterday’s most downloaded [...]

Decision-Making Tool vs. Decision-Aid Tool — Decision Markets Edition

#1. Decision-Making Tool – Decision markets are conditional prediction markets intended (by some idealists) to be used as a decision-making tool replacing human decision makers.
#2. Decision-Aid Tool – Decision markets are conditional prediction markets intended to be used as a decision-aid tool advising human decision makers.

Am I nailing well the Robin Hanson ambiguity here?? It [...]

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