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Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions — David Pennock Edition

David Pennock:
[...] So what is the “right” way to evaluate probabilistic predictions? There is no single absolute best way, though several tests are appropriate, and probably can be considered stronger tests than the calibration test. In our paper “Does Money Matter?” we use four evaluation metrics:
1. Absolute error: The average over many events of lose_PR, [...]

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