Tag Archives: date

Storms vs. Hurricanes

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

There will be more than 14 named Atlantic storms in 2008. Â© NewsFutures – There will be more than 9 named Atlantic Hurricanes in 2008. Â© NewsFutures – NewsFutures’ chart widgets are the world’s most usable —from the standpoint of … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged date, hurricanes, NewsFutures, prediction markets, storms, weather | Leave a comment

2008 hurricane binary option contracts

Posted on March 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- MondoVisione: Hurricane binary option contracts will pay the full contract value ($10,000) to the buyer if the combined CHI for all of the hurricanes during the season equals or exceeds a certain value (strike); otherwise, it pays nothing and … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME, date, hurricane binary option contracts, hurricane derivatives, hurricane futures, hurricane prediction markets, hurricanes, USD | 4 Comments

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February.

Posted on March 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Jonathan Alter: “Hillaryâ€™s Math Problem – Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.” UPDATE

Posted in Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, date, Democratic, democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jonathan Alter, Politics, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections | 4 Comments

InTrade-TradeSports are fucking up contracts, once again.

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Once again. I have been inundated with complaints from InTrade traders, since Christmas. Here’s the problem. InTrade traders tell me that the expiration dates for the Bloomberg and Gore announcement contracts have been extended —at InTrade’s whim. The contract statements, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Al Gore, Bloomberg, Carl Wolfenden, Christmas, contracts, date, Dublin, Dublin's main street, exchange manager, independent candidate, InTrade, Manager Intrade Exchange Operations, Market Expiry, mayor, media sources, Michael Bloomberg, New York, Politics, prediction markets, President, Trader, United States, US elections, US politics, USD, Wall Street Journal | Leave a comment

The truth on the 2000â€“2003 US DoDâ€™s DARPAâ€™s IAOâ€™s FutureMAP/Policy Analysis Market project.

Posted on May 29, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Policy Analysis Market project was badmouthed last week by Bruce Hansen of The Register, so I’m publishing here some excerpts of Robin Hanson’s verbatim. — Robin Hanson: [...] It fell to me to explore possible application areas, and after … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, History, Market Contract Statements | Tagged Arafat, Bruce Hansen, Charles Polk, Congress, date, David Pennock, Department of Defense, Israel, John Poindexter, media storm, North Korea, oil prices, prediction markets, research scientist, Robin Hanson, Saudi Arabia, secretary of defense, Senate, United States, US DoD, USD, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

HedgeStreet & the calmer than average Hurricane season

Posted on November 27, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

From The Tampa Tribune: 9: The number of named storms this year 17: The number of named storms predicted May 31 by a team at Colorado State University led by Professor William Gray — HedgeStreet had opened a top-notch Hurricane … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Colorado State University, date, Hurricane Center, Professor, The Tampa Tribune, William Gray | Leave a comment

WSJ on the 2004 manipulation of the TradeSports’s Bush contracts.

Posted on October 20, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Know Who Will Win the Election? You Can Bet on It! – ($$$) – (via JC Kommer and via TradeSports forum) – [political betting & political prediction markets] – by Stephen Moore – 2006-10-20 What about market manipulation? Can wealthy … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, History, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bank run, Bet, Bush, date, Donald Luskin, Koleman S. Strumpf, North Carolina, Paul W. Rhode, single trader, Stephen Moore, United States, University of North Carolina, Wall Street, wealthy traders, Will Win | Leave a comment