Tag Archives: Dartmouth College

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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Eric Zitzewitz, laughing all the way to the bank

Dartmouth College professor Eric W. Zitzewitz Eric Zitzewitz, previously at Stanford University, and now a Dartmouth professor, is the top trader at the ABC7 San Francisco prediction exchange. [Via Adam Siegel's blog.] $1,309,424 Mike “onemike” Giberson at Inkling Markets does … Continue reading

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Business Overconfidence as seen thru Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets

Bo Cowgill: At OVERCOMING BIAS, Robin Hanson blogs about the overconfidence of CEOs, CFOs and software managers. Our paper also measured overconfidence in the workplace. We found that our marketplace was overconfident as a whole, although the market’s optimistic bias … Continue reading

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Tim Harford on office micro-geography (and Google’s enterprise prediction markets)

Tim Harford: [...] We keep being told that because of cheap, ubiquitous communication technology, distance is dead. But if there was ever a company that we should expect to exemplify that idea, surely it was Google. This research suggests that … Continue reading

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Organizational Sociology & Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets

Graduate student Ben Spigel’s comment on Richard Florida’s blog: About a decade ago, a group of cognitive scientists looking at Bell Labs found that all things being equal, the chances of two scientists collaborating was 4 times higher if they … Continue reading

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Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets –to say the least.

Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution: This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets. Finally, somebody who speaks the truth. See … Continue reading

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ROBIN HANSON TELLS THE TRUTH ON GOOGLE’S ENTERPRISE PREDICTION MARKETS.

Robin Hanson: Yes prediction markets are cool, Google is cool, and it is cool that Google had location data to show how location influences trading. But cool need not be useful. People are not asking the hard questions here: what … Continue reading

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Have Google’s enterprise prediction markets been accurate?

Justin Wolfers: So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?” and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation. I am more interested in the accuracy of the … Continue reading

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Prediction markets = A tool for quantifying the conventional wisdom

Eric Zitzewitz responded to Paul Krugman: Almost all of the serious people who study or work with these markets are not in the “markets are magic” camp. My work in this area (with Justin Wolfers usually and Andrew Leigh and … Continue reading

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Google’s enterprise prediction markets = a slavery instrument based on self-fulling prophecies?

Search engine expert Barry Schwartz: [...] Why does Google encourage such activity from their employees? [...] It also helps stimulate an “optimism bias,” which in turn encourages Google employees to work harder to achieve a certain outcome they have predicted … Continue reading

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