Tag Archives: Dartmouth College
The best researchers on prediction markets
CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]
Eric Zitzewitz, laughing all the way to the bank
Dartmouth College professor Eric W. Zitzewitz
Eric Zitzewitz, previously at Stanford University, and now a Dartmouth professor, is the top trader at the ABC7 San Francisco prediction exchange. [Via Adam Siegel's blog.]
$1,309,424
Mike “onemike” Giberson at Inkling Markets does well too.
Business Overconfidence as seen thru Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets
Bo Cowgill:
At OVERCOMING BIAS, Robin Hanson blogs about the overconfidence of CEOs, CFOs and software managers. Our paper also measured overconfidence in the workplace. We found that our marketplace was overconfident as a whole, although the market’s optimistic bias subsided as time passed. We also pointed out the particular overconfidence exhibited by new employees — [...]
Tim Harford on office micro-geography (and Google’s enterprise prediction markets)
Tim Harford:
[...] We keep being told that because of cheap, ubiquitous communication technology, distance is dead. But if there was ever a company that we should expect to exemplify that idea, surely it was Google. This research suggests that it is as important as ever to be sitting in the right place.
Yes, but findings on [...]
Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets –to say the least.
Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution:
This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets.
Finally, somebody who speaks the truth.
See also the comment of economist Michael Giberson.
Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google [...]
ROBIN HANSON TELLS THE TRUTH ON GOOGLE’S ENTERPRISE PREDICTION MARKETS.
Robin Hanson:
Yes prediction markets are cool, Google is cool, and it is cool that Google had location data to show how location influences trading. But cool need not be useful. People are not asking the hard questions here: what value exactly is Google getting out of these markets, aside from helping them look cool?
Robin Hanson [...]
Have Google’s enterprise prediction markets been accurate?
Justin Wolfers:
So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?” and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation.
I am more interested in the accuracy of the enterprise prediction markets than in corporate micro-geography issues.
Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence [...]
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