Tag Archives: Daniel Drezner

Predictor Accuracy: the Hedgehog vs. the Fox

— Ellen Goodman: [...] The closed-minded hedgehogs are those who know ”one big thing” and relate everything to that single, central vision. The open-minded foxes ”know many little things” and accept ambiguity and contradictions. [...] It’s no surprise that foxes … Continue reading

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Scandal prediction markets, anyone??

The untenured tenured Daniel Drezner asks about scandal prediction markets that could forecast whether the Larry Craigs and Bill Clintons of the world run into personal problems. Hmmm… “Will there be a major political scandal in the next six months?”… … Continue reading

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