Midas Oracle .ORG » Daily Kos http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 17:20:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 It wasn’t about the predictions. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/15/it-wasnt-about-the-predictions/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/15/it-wasnt-about-the-predictions/#comments Sat, 15 Nov 2008 18:49:16 +0000 Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=11404 Continue reading →]]> Let’s not confuse media visibility with utility. Aside from the depressed Obama-to-win prices on one exchange, prediction market and polling aggregation results for the 2008 election were essentially the same using squared errors. Despite his insane schematics, Emile Servan-Schreiber has a good point about capturing the interest of the public, something that nerdy academic and libertarian-types aren’t necessarily good at. An Obama-backing baseball statistician out of Daily Kos nailed that part this year, a year where people were especially skeptical of markets, not to mention unregulated “offshore” ones. Likewise, if you put down the lens of considering markets as commission generators, you’ll see the value of contracts tied to social and cultural outcomes. Of one the biggest assets of prediction exchanges is media goodwill, which should be fostered by distilling information on subjects like global development and art prices.

Other things to keep in mind:

  • This year happened to have a lot of favorite-longshot States, which turned-out to be favorable to 538′s error relative to markets.
  • Prediction markets register information in real time. Since the difference in error is small, this is important.
  • Markets are more flexible, and useful in situations where you don’t have a rich data set and obvious statistical analyses. Elections are just one type of question. Even if you have data, it might be less expensive to set up a new contract than to undertake the analysis.
  • And of course, prediction markets have functions aside from forecasting, and provide incentives for uncovering new information.
]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/11/15/it-wasnt-about-the-predictions/feed/ 10 RE: Alleged manipulation of the Hillary Clinton event derivative at InTrade-TradeSports http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/04/re-alleged-manipulation-of-the-hillary-clinton-event-derivative-at-intrade-tradesports/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/04/re-alleged-manipulation-of-the-hillary-clinton-event-derivative-at-intrade-tradesports/#comments Sat, 04 Aug 2007 21:57:29 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/04/re-alleged-manipulation-of-the-hillary-clinton-event-derivative-at-intrade-tradesports/ Continue reading →]]> Does a rich trader, highly partisan and highly convinced that Hillary will make it, care about the price? If he/she has persuaded himself/herself that the expiry will bring $100, then buying the Hillary Clinton event derivative at $40 will yield quite a good potential profit, in his/her view. … Buying at $25… $40… or $30… Does not make a huge difference.

To tell you frankly, I believe that Hillary Clinton is the next US president. I would not vote for her (I’m a mid-core libertarian), but I believe she will make it. I would buy her event derivative any price. $25… $40… or $30… Whatever. Call me a manipulator. :) I’m with you, Koleman Strumpf. :)

Actually, $30 is quite a bargain, I do believe. Barak Obama is not in the cards anymore, and the US electorate wants the Republicans out (so as to terminate the Iraq war). I expect the Hillary Clinton event derivative to surge in the coming months.

Hence, the real question that Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz should answer is: WHO WAS THAT DAMN MANIPULATOR WHO SHORT-SOLD THE CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVE LIKE CRAZY FROM MID-MAY TO THE EARLY DAYS OF JULY 2007 AND THUS ARTIFICIALLY MADE BARAK OBAMA LOOKS MORE PRESIDENTIAL THAT HE WAS REALLY? :)

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UPDATE: Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, founder of Daily Kos, on Hillary Clinton…

We may decide she’s not our first choice, but she’s not a bad choice.

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Price for 2008 US Presidential Election - Winning Individual (See Specific Rules) at intrade.com
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Static chart:

Pres Clinton 2008 InTrade

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Previous: Who could have masterminded the alleged manipulation of the Hillary Clinton prediction market??? + Manipulation can affect prices. – by Eric Zitzewitz + Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? – by Koleman Strumpf + Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux. – by Justin Wolfers + Hillary Rodham Clinton – Event Derivatives & Prediction Markets – InTrade-TradeSports + BetFair + NewsFutures = the market-generated probabilities across the different real-money and play-money prediction exchanges + Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) – by Koleman Strumpf

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