Tag Archives: D day

Predictify v Pikum v Hubdub: Who will be top at the end of May?

Posted on May 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Would it have been better if the contract tracked the cumulative usage, as opposed to the usage on a D day (here, the last day of May)? Or maybe the averaged (or cumulative) usage for all of May? -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Are Nicolas Sarkozy backers right to be so confident?

Posted on April 3, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

… asks Mike Smithson. (((Legend: Still no idea what this chart represents. Bookmakers’ odds or betting exchanges’ ones???))) Mike Smithson’s strategy: My current betting strategy is to seek to make the most of the first round. I’ve just put a … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Quick update on French president prediction markets

Posted on March 10, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Case#1. If things stay as they are today, the next French president is Republican Nicolas SARKOZY. Case #2. If Centrist Francois BAYROU manages to gain one or two points in the polls, so as to be above the Socialist Segolene … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

TradeSports-InTrade prediction markets on Bush approval ratings

Posted on September 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Donald Luskin notes that the text of this contract has a glitch. Probably, a TradeSports employee using a template has forgotten to delete an old text pertaining to US election prediction markets, while filling the “Rules” tab. (The webpage for … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment