Midas Oracle .ORG » corporate prediction markets

Technology Review publishes an uncritical article on collective forecasting used in business. – {CrowdCast}

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 18:57:37 +0000

How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company’s Future – Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. – Technology Review

If prediction markets are such a powerful tool, then why aren’t we able to use them to solve [INSERT YOUR FAVORITE WORLD PROBLEM HERE]?

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 20:47:18 +0000

Justin Wolfers is asked the question, but I would have a different answer than his.

The reason prediction markets are not widely used in business is that their many boosters (Robin Hanson, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, etc.) have exaggerated their usefulness. Just because they are objective in their wisdom does not mean that they are very useful.

Objectivity is over-rated. This is a painful lesson for the handful of young startups who swallowed the prediction market myth. Next step: the dead pool.

MAT FOGARTY FOR PRESIDENT

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 18:16:08 +0000

CrowdCast + SAP

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 15:47:55 +0000

Business Objects + Prediction Markets

Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 20:05:20 +0000

Matt Fogarty of CrowdCast:

Business leaders rely on metrics and data to inform decisions around new products and opportunities, but traditional forecasting methods suffer from bias and lack of first-hand information. Thatâ€™s why business forecasting is an ideal target for the application of crowd wisdom. While bets are made anonymously, some prediction market software applications have built-in reward systems for accurate forecasters. And the accuracy of prediction markets over traditional forecasting methods is proven again and again. [...] Prediction markets will then aggregate this knowledge to produce actionable, people-powered forecasts. The result is an ultra-rich information source that will lay the foundation for smarter, better-informed company decisions. [...]

CrowdCast is an enterprise software platform that helps companies make better forecasts by tapping the knowledge stored in their employees.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 16:10:16 +0000

Interview

Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.

CrowdCast CEO Mat Fogarty on how his company is helping businesses make better-informed decisions [VIDEO]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 10:10:59 +0000

Good questions, good answers:

Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.

External Links:

- CrowdCast

- CFO Prediction Market

- Matt Fogarty’s twitter – [Midas Oracle's twitter]

Previously:

- CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

- CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with a market maker

Common pitfalls of enterprise prediction markets: participants who lack relevant information, too few participants, and too little trading.

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 08:59:27 +0000

GOAL:

“Prediction markets seek information aggregation from a large group of diverse individuals by encouraging active participation.“

REALITY CHECK:

“The biggest challenge is getting people in the company to be active” [].

Implementing a prediction market within a company means changing the way information flows by widening the people in the know and accepting to be occasionally second-guessed by the market.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:39:34 +0000

“Some corporate cultures arenâ€™t ready to accept that yet.â€

Any sane boss should fire an employee who is betting at work.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:59:14 +0000