Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: consultant

A little lady (who was featured in the ABC 20/20 story about InTrade) claims that she speculated on the McCain and Obama prediction markets and got a R.O.I. of 1,000% in less than a year.

And she is out with a Press release.
Via Fabian John (Financial Services Consultant)
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ABC 20/20 featuring InTrade – (May 9, 2008)

Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets — (4 pages in all)
ABC video
YouTube video

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Which software for prediction markets is the best?

John Ives:
HSX software certainly has a lot of head room to offer to a relatively small project such as Storage Markets. Given the prediction market software vendors available to us during late 2005, we were very happy with our choice of HSX. Alex and his team at HSX provided excellent customer service and were extremely [...]

Is NewsFutures the world-wide world’s market leader, really?

I would recommend against that kind of bragging, because it could fire back at NewsFutures if, one day, we get to learn that another consultancy firm (Consensus Point or Inkling Markets or else) has reached the top. In that scenario, then the headline would be, “NEWSFUTURES FALLS FROM THE TOP”… Not the kind of headline [...]

Philanthropy + Prediction Markets = Growth Area

Last July (2007), I told you about an interesting Lady (Lucy Bernholz), whom I read about in the New York Times, who is an expert in philanthropy business (being a consultant for foundations), and who got interested in the idea of foundations subsidizing some socially valuable prediction markets. (Robin Hanson gave his stamp of approval [...]

Where is it that the prediction markets can make a macro difference, mister Robin Hanson?

Prediction market consultant Robin Hanson wants to be paid according to outputs instead of inputs. Smart blog post. However, I will say this, if I may. I think it should be up to the consultant to tell the client where exactly the prediction markets can make a macro difference, compared to the forecasting tools in [...]

Mat Fogarty hangs his shingle nearby Stanford University.

XPree:
Forecast error comes from 5 sources:
1. Overoptimism when developing a new product, especially regarding ship dates
2. Lowballing sales forecasts in an effort to reduce sales quotas
3. Padding of spending budgets to reduce cost pressure
4. Uncertainty – the future is unknown
5. Black Swans – rare extreme events that have a large unforeseen influence

[...]
A prediction [...]

Using prediction markets to glean, and then sell, business research.

Via George Tziralis of Ask Markets, the New York Times on the eLab Exchange (powered by NewsFutures).
[...] Robin Hanson, an economics professor at George Mason University and a consultant to companies building prediction markets, said: “A lot of new business plans are based on this idea. There’s a big trend in this area, with people [...]

Is Electronic Art still running internal prediction markets??

Mat Fogarty (Prediction Markets Consultant – Founder CEO Xpree)
Ran a 240 participant prediction market at EA which demonstrated the power of collaborative forecasting in a corporate setting.
Every time somebody tells me about EA, they use the past tense, “ran”. Does it mean it’s over, now that Mat Fogarty is out??

Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool.

Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry
[...] Chris F. Masse, a [] consultant in Sophia Antipolis, France, who specializes in prediction markets, says that by 2010, “10 percent of Fortune 500 companies will have gone public about their use of internal prediction markets, [...]

Spectrum has a long article on prediction markets.

Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry
In August 2004, Todd Proebsting, a researcher in Microsoft’s platform and services division, was approached by a manager in the company’s testing organization who had spent months helping to create a piece of software to be used [...]

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