Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Columbus

Political Factor Analysis

David Pennock, Lance Fortnow and others on Marginal Revolution and DailyKos explain the “failure” of prediction markets for Senate control as stemming from the assumption that state-level elections are independent events, an assumption that ignores national movements in sentiment. Is there a way to test this idea? If a general anti-Republican/pro-Democrat wave swept [...]

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