Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!

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The announcement is here.

I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later.

The Contract Rules need more precise specification. While Intrade did use my suggestion of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies data to value the contract, I think Intrade must specifically state that the &#8220-J-D&#8221- January-December annual mean temperature series is being used, and on either the Global Mean Monthly data set, or else the Global-Land Ocean Temperature Index data set.

I personally prefer the latter, as ocean temperatures play a huge role in ice melts as well as other weather phenomena (e.g. hurricane frequency and intensity, even this political advocacy group pretending to be scientific says so). In any case, the two series are generally correlated well, so I have no strong preference which one Intrade specifies.

I used the latter of course, in working with Adam Siegel and the folks at Inkling Markets to create the very first Global Warming prediction market.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
  • Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
  • Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
  • Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
  • The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

Only 7 web publications took the BetFair bait on global warming.

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BetFair climate

Yeah, at Midas Oracle, we do swallow baits on prediction markets!!! :-D

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BETFAIR: HSBC Investable Climate Change Index, ECX CFI Futures Contract, and Highest and Lowest UK Temperature.

MIDAS ORACLE: BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets &#8212- CFM&#8217-s Views + BetFair&#8217-s Global Warming Prediction Markets

BetFair embrace decision markets.

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Betfair has launched a series of innovative betting markets which will provide clear indications of how public opinion views the on-going debate about climate change, by allowing people to speculate on climate indices developed to track the extent (or otherwise) of global warming.

Betfair’s exchange model will create a market price for climate change related outcomes, including the HSBC Investable Climate Change Index, the ECX CFI Futures Contract, and Highest and Lowest UK Temperature. The commission that Betfair earns from operating these markets will be ring-fenced and invested in the development of technologies to tackle the wider issue of climate change.

In what is a major blow to prediction markets supporters, the Betfair press release refers to aggregating market mechanisms as &#8220-decision markets&#8221-, rather than &#8220-prediction markets&#8221–

‘Decision markets’ have historically proved to be accurate gauges of political, economic and cultural change and better forecasters of the future than opinion polls and expert forecasts. Efficient market theory suggests that these climate markets will be the best aggregation of all the available information on the subject. This is the ideal place for experts, academics, businesses and interested parties to put money behind their views on long-range forecasts.

It remains to be seen how Chris Masse responds to the Betfair announcement.

[External Links: HSBC Climate Index + Carbon Futures + Highest and Lowest UK Temperature Futures]

Claude Allegre, Al Gore debunker

Claude Allegre debunks the first part of Al Gore&#8217-s documentary movie (the &#8220-catastrophism&#8221- part), and agrees with its second part (the &#8220-let&#8217-s use better technologies&#8221- part).

&#8220-Claude Allegre&#8221- at Google Search

Claude Allegre&#8217-s latest book (in French).

NEXT: An Inconvenient Truth &#8211- Al Gore’s movie