Tag Archives: Cleveland

The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?

Posted on August 6, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- – Will CNN report on the John Edwards/mistress/baby rumors? | Hubdub – Will a supposed affair between John Edwards and Rielle Hunter be confirmed? | Hubdub – UPDATE: The Charlotte Observer UPDATE: National Review UPDATE: Google’s cached webpages of … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Politics | Tagged ABC, ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, Charlotte Observer, Cleveland, CNN, Daily Mail, Dallas Morning News, Elisabeth Edwards, Fred Baron, Google, John Edwards, LA Times, Lisa Druck, National Enquirer, National Review, New York Times, NewsWeek, Rielle Hunter, Robert Scoble, UPI, USA TODAY | 4 Comments

Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery

Posted on October 15, 2007 by Michael Giberson

“Which teams will play in the 2007 World Series?“ An experienced market manager has created a market asking this question at the Inkling public markets, setting it up at the end of the regular season and listing contracts in each … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs | Tagged Alabama, American League, Arizona, baseball, Boston, Cleveland, Colorado, combinatorial markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experienced market manager, general manager, Houston Astros, independence, Inkling, inkling markets, manager, market design, multiple outcomes, National League, Phil Garner, prediction markets, Purpura, Tim Purpura, Trader | Leave a comment

BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.

Posted on September 18, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair predicted: -0,25 The Fed decided: -0.50 That’s for the absolute accuracy. Now, what counts is the relative accuracy —the comparison between the prediction made by BetFair and the predictions made by the financial markets experts. I see that the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Ben S. Bernanke, Bloomberg, Board of Governors, Boston, chairman, Charles L. Evans, Cleveland, Donald L. Kohn, Eric Rosengren, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, Felix Salmon, Frederic S. Mishkin, Kansas City, Kevin M. Warsh, Minneapolis, New York, Niall O'Connor, Randall S. Kroszner, San Francisco, St. Louis, Thomas M. Hoenig, Timothy F. Geithner, Vice-Chairman, Wall Street, William Poole | 1 Comment

BetFair predicts: US Federal Funds Rate = 5%

Posted on September 18, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

What will be the change in US Federal Funds Rate at this month’s scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting? FOMC – September FOMC Current Rate 5.25% . – 0.25 UPDATE: BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Ben S. Bernanke, Bloomberg, Board of Governors, Boston, chairman, Charles L. Evans, Cleveland, Donald L. Kohn, Eric Rosengren, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, Felix Salmon, FOMC, Frederic S. Mishkin, Kansas City, Kevin M. Warsh, Minneapolis, New York, Niall O'Connor, Randall S. Kroszner, San Francisco, St. Louis, Thomas M. Hoenig, Timothy F. Geithner, Vice-Chairman, Wall Street, William Poole | 2 Comments

Tag Archives: Cleveland

The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?

Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery

BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.

BetFair predicts: US Federal Funds Rate = 5%

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