Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Cleveland

The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?

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- Will CNN report on the John Edwards/mistress/baby rumors? | Hubdub
- Will a supposed affair between John Edwards and Rielle Hunter be confirmed? | Hubdub
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UPDATE: The Charlotte Observer
UPDATE: National Review
UPDATE: Google’s cached webpages of the National Enquirer about John Edwards – Click on “Cached”.
UPDATE: Video

Edwards infidelity
envoyé par dollarsandsense123
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UPDATE: UPI + Daily Mail + National Review
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UPDATE: [...]

Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery

“Which teams will play in the 2007 World Series?“ An experienced market manager has created a market asking this question at the Inkling public markets, setting it up at the end of the regular season and listing contracts in each of the then possible 20 different combinations (four teams from the American League and five [...]

BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.

BetFair predicted: -0,25
The Fed decided: -0.50
That’s for the absolute accuracy. Now, what counts is the relative accuracy —the comparison between the prediction made by BetFair and the predictions made by the financial markets experts. I see that the rate cut of 50bp has come up as a big surprise to the Wall [...]

BetFair predicts: US Federal Funds Rate = 5%

What will be the change in US Federal Funds Rate at this month’s scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting?
FOMC – September FOMC
Current Rate 5.25% .
- 0.25

UPDATE: BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.
BetFair predicted: -0,25
The [...]

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