Tag Archives: Christopher Wlezien

Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls.

Posted on September 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls: Markets vs. Polls as Predictors: An Historical Assessment of US Presidential Elections – (PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien

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POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson.

Posted on June 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers (in January 2008): 1. Bob and Chris has four elections in their data, so it is hard to draw too much from it. That said, I draw two conclusions. First, markets beat an unconditional use of polls as … Continue reading →

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Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.

Posted on June 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Adam Siegel… …of Inkling Markets fame…. – Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (draft: PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien – 2008-05-02 Abstract Election markets have been praised for their … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments