So, if I can count, 3 prediction market people are working at Google: Bo Cowgill, Jed Christiansen [*], and now, Chris Hibbert.

[*] UK, not Mountain View.

- “Mat is a funny, friendly and great person to work with. He’s highly entrepreneurial and innovative business leader, with passion and drive. I’d recommend Crowdcast to anyone – they know how to create best-of-breed online software products.” April 3, 2009

Joe Miles, General Manager, efp Markets, FC Group Ltd

- “Mat and I worked on numerous presentations and analyses for EA’s CFO, CEO and Board of Directors. Mat is not only detail-oriented but he also thinks strategically. Most importantly, I appreciate Mat as a person with high integrity.” September 4, 2007

James Lee, Investor Relations Manager, Electronic Arts

- “Mat is a great strategic thinker basing his decisions on the facts and cutting through the nonsense. Unlike many managers he also has the ability to execute on his strategies.” August 30, 2007

Eric Kress, Business Analyst, Electronic Arts

Awesome.

Stupidly, Adam Siegel and Emile Servan-Schreiber (Mat’s 2 main competitors) have not asked others to publish testimonies. They should wake up from their deep napping —before it is too late (that is, before CrowdCast becomes the de facto leader of the EPM software vendors).

Chris Hibbert (of Zocalo) has one great recommendation from one MIT-involved guy.

(Click on the detailed profile.)

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The Forrester executive summary:

The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous; as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

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For information on hard-copy or electronic reprints, please contact the Client Resource Center at +1 866.367.7378, +1 617.617.5730, or resourcecenter –at– forrester –dot– com. We offer quantity discounts and special pricing for academic and nonprofit institutions.

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APPENDIX #1: Prediction Markets – DRM Review

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APPENDIX #2:

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Here is a list of companies that provide software for prediction markets:

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Inkling Markets – (MSR + AMM)

NewsFutures – (CDA + optional AMM + SR)

Xpree – (MSR + AMM)

Zocalo – (CDA + MSR + AMM) – (open-source)

Nosco – (CDA + MSR + AMM)

QMarkets – (MSR + AMM)

Ask Markets – (MSR + AMM)

Exago Markets – (CDA + optional AMM)

Gexid – (?)

ProKons – (?)

Spigit – (?)

HSX Virtual Markets – (Virtual Specialist + AMM)

HubDub – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

Yahoo!‘s Prediction Exchange – (MSR + AMM + DPMM) – (not licensed)

Google‘s Prediction Exchange – (CDA) – (not licensed)

MicroSoft PredictionPoint – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

InTrade – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

TradeSports – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

Iowa Electronic Markets – (CDA) – (not licensed)

HedgeStreet – (CDA) – (not licensed)

TradeFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

BetFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

Trading Technologies International – (CDA) – (not for event derivatives)

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Here’s a list of prediction market consultants:

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Robin Hanson – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)

• Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
• “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

• Adam Siegel
• Nathan Kontny

NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

• Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Maurice Balick

Xpree – (California, U.S.A.)

• Mat Fogarty

Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

• Chris Hibbert (Software architect / Zocalo project manager) — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Chris Hibbert’s personal website — Chris Hibbert’s personal blog —
• Chris Hibbert’s CommerceNet profile — (His stint there ended in mid 2006.)

Justin Wolfers – (University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

• Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
• The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

Koleman Strumpf – (University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

• Koleman Strumpf — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
• “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

• Jesper Krogstrup
• Oliver Bernhard Pedersen

Qmarkets – (Israel)

• Noam Danon

Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

• George Tziralis — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

HP Services & HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

• Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
• Information Dynamics Lab — Internal prediction markets
• BRAIN – (Behaviorallly Robust Aggregation of Information in Networks) — Scoring Rules (i.e., non-trading technique)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – Senior Fellow & Director
• Kay-Yut Chen -
• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Prediction market consultancy firm
• Movie business

IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (CalTech Inst., California, U.S.A.)

Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

• Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

ProKons – (Germany, E.U.)

• Peter Gollowitsch

Exago Markets – (Portugal, E.U.)

• Pedro Da Cunha

NimaniX – (Israel)

• Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

Michael Giberson – (Texas, U.S.A.)

• Michael Giberson (Energy Economist – Center for Energy Commerce, Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University) — Post archive at Midas Oracle
• Knowledge Problem – Blog on economics, energy policy, more.

Other Consulting Firms

McKinsey – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”
• The Promise Of Prediction Markets – by McKinsey – 2008-04-XX

Accenture – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Gartner – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Forrester – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”
• Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – 2008-07-14

The Boston Consulting Group – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

CapGemini – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

KPMG – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Price Waterhouse Cooper – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Ernst & Young – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Deloitte – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

IBM – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

EDS – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

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APPENDIX: We now know who is Chris Hiibert’s contact at Google.

EXTERNAL LINK: Zocalo

PREVIOUSLY: How Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers helped.

Nigel Eccles.

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John Delaney and Emile Servan-Schreiber are good, but they are too much ignorant of information technology.

Adam Siegel and David Perry are too much focused on their internal process.

BetFair seems to be a consensual machine. It’s not a place for heroes.

David Pennock is an admirable man and a great research scientist, but he is an ambulatory marketing disaster.

As for Robin “High IQ” Hanson, he is a great inventor (MSR), but he has not proved yet that he is a great innovator.

His little fanboy, Chris Hibbert, is a great software architect, but he is totally impermeable to pleasantry. [I completely forgot to tell you that that was my criterion #1. ]

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ADDRESSES: Comments should be sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street, NW., Washington, DC 20581, Attention: Office of the Secretariat. Comments may be sent by facsimile to 202.418.5521, or by e-mail to secretary@cftc.gov.

Reference should be made to the “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” Comments may also be submitted through the Federal eRuleMaking Portal at http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/leaving.cgi?from=leavingFR.html&log=linklog&to=http://www.regulations.gov.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Bruce Fekrat, Special Counsel, Office of the Director (telephone 202.418.5578, e-mail bfekrat@cftc.gov), Division of Market Oversight, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street, NW., Washington, DC 20581.

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THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES:

- CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.

- In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

- The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).

- Analysis of the HedgeStreet’s comment sent to the CFTC.

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BACKGROUND INFO:

- CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts… notably how they define “event markets”, how they are going to extend their “exemption” to other IEM-like prediction exchanges, and how they framed their questions to the public. Here are the comments sent to the CFTC.

- The BusinessWeek news article about the CFTC’s concept release.

- The Arnold & Porter lawyer’s take. — (PDF file)

- The Schulte, Roth & Zabel lawyers’ take. — (PDF file)

- The Sullivan & Cromwell lawyers’ take. — (PDF file)

- Michael Giberson’s economic take.

- Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take.

- Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take.

- The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize the real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

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COMMENTS TO THE CFTC

- Very soon, two prediction market organizations and one VIP will submit their comment to the CFTC.

- What Vernon Smith told the CFTC. — (PDF file)

- Jed Christiansen’s pragmatic take. — Final draft – (PDF file) – His comment to the CFTC – (PDF file)

- The International Swaps and Derivatives Association‘s comment to the CFTC – (ISDA) — (PDF file)

- Jason Ruspini’s comment to the CFTC — (PDF file)

- Tom W. Bell’s petition, which will be sent to the CFTC. — (Jonathan Gewirtz is in.)

- HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC. — (PDF file)

- A young economist rebuts the American Enterprise Institute. — (MO mirror) — Comment to the CFTC – (PDF file)

- Tom W. Bell rebuts the American Enterprise Institute.

- Robin Hanson’s comment to the CFTC. — (MO mirror)

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APPENDIX:

Paul Wolfowitz’s profile at the American Enterprise Institute

- How the neo-cons drove the United States of America into the unecessary Iraq war

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ADDRESSES: Comments should be sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street, NW., Washington, DC 20581, Attention: Office of the Secretariat. Comments may be sent by facsimile to 202.418.5521, or by e-mail to secretary@cftc.gov.

Reference should be made to the “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” Comments may also be submitted through the Federal eRuleMaking Portal at http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/leaving.cgi?from=leavingFR.html&log=linklog&to=http://www.regulations.gov.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Bruce Fekrat, Special Counsel, Office of the Director (telephone 202.418.5578, e-mail bfekrat@cftc.gov), Division of Market Oversight, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street, NW., Washington, DC 20581.

-

THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES:

- CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.

- In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

- The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).

- Analysis of the HedgeStreet’s comment sent to the CFTC.

-

BACKGROUND INFO:

- CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts… notably how they define “event markets”, how they are going to extend their “exemption” to other IEM-like prediction exchanges, and how they framed their questions to the public. Here are the comments sent to the CFTC.

- The Arnold & Porter lawyer’s take. — (PDF file)

- The Schulte, Roth & Zabel lawyers’ take. — (PDF file)

- The Sullivan & Cromwell lawyers’ take. — (PDF file)

- Michael Giberson’s economic take.

- Chris Hibbert’s libertarian take.

- Tom W. Bell’s libertarian take.

- The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize the real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

-

COMMENTS TO THE CFTC

- Very soon, two prediction market organizations and one VIP will submit their comment to the CFTC.

- What Vernon Smith told the CFTC. — (PDF file)

- Jed Christiansen’s pragmatic take. — Final draft – (PDF file) – His comment to the CFTC – (PDF file)

- The International Swaps and Derivatives Association‘s comment to the CFTC — (ISDA) — (PDF file)

- Jason Ruspini’s comment to the CFTC — (PDF file)

- Tom W. Bell’s petition, which will be sent to the CFTC. — (Jonathan Gewirtz is in.)

- HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC. — (PDF file)

- A young economist rebuts the American Enterprise Institute. — (MO mirror) — Comment to the CFTC – (PDF file)

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APPENDIX:

Paul Wolfowitz’s profile at the American Enterprise Institute

- How the neo-cons drove the United States of America into the unecessary Iraq war

-