Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: chief

What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline.
- An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline.
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- I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about the leading sources of information that active traders rely on.
- Last time, in the title, I said that [...]

Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (“the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (“the wolves”) will BBQ them.

Still trading at 30% this Thursday morning.
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- US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing.
- Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating [...]

Has BetFair a little part of responsibility in the collapse of the Kieren Fallon trial (which cost British taxpayers £950,000)?

BetFair actively report betting that appears to them out of the ordinary. And, if any sport regulator has concerns, then BetFair provide them with additional information. BetFair, of course, has no say in whether a criminal offense has been committed, and no input into the prosecution (the Crown Prosecution Service).
In the Fallon case (an Irish [...]

The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism

Justin Wolfers at Freakonomics published the link to an interesting paper, “The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge” [PDF file]:
The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge
We have used 19.9 million papers over 5 decades and 2.1 million patents to demonstrate that teams increasingly dominate solo authors in the production of knowledge. [...]

FALLON CASE: BetFair lawyer David O’Reilly is not the man… to say the least.

The Guardian:
[...] In part, the fault is Betfair’s, for failing to ensure that police investigators understood the meaning of the complex evidence they provided, and for passing pages of irrelevant data to the Crown that provided one of many early embarrassments for the prosecution. [...]
The senior detective in charge of the investigation, Mark Manning, had [...]

Should Google Analytics have the option for webmasters to make the web stats reports public, for all to see?

I asked that question to Bo Cowgill (the chief of the prediction market group at Google) after reading this New York Times news article (How Many Site Hits? Depends Who’s Counting.), and here’s what he told me (with permission to republish):
Yeah, well that idea is something I’ve been pushing for. There is no easy solution [...]

Creating a Prediction Market on Inkling for the Women’s World Cup was Easy!

We’ve talked about setting up public markets on Inkling here before. I just set up a market for predicting the winner of the Women’s World Cup 2007 tournament, which is kicking off in China this weekend and wrapping up on September 30. (Women’s football/soccer.)

Took me about 45 or 50 minutes, start to finish. [...]

OECD Chief: U.S. Likely to Avoid Major Recession.

Wall Street Journal

Static chart:


Static chart:

REPORTS OF THE BETCHA.COM DEMISE HAVE BEEN GREATLY EXAGGERATED.

[This blog post is cross-posted from Nicholas Jenkins' blog post at Betcha.com.]

Yesterday, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer ran a story entitled “Betting web site’s computers seized.” Within hours, bloggers and other news outlets picked up the story and translated it into something akin to “Betcha shut down.”
Problem: the translation isn’t true. (WARNING: if tails of government bureaucrats [...]

Betcha.com: On Steamroller Justice and Reports of our Demise

Yesterday, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer ran a story entitled “Betting web site’s computers seized.” Within hours, bloggers and other news outlets picked up the story and translated it into something akin to “Betcha shut down.”
Problem: the translation isn’t true. (WARNING: if tails of government bureaucrats running roughshod over its citizens turns your stomach, stop reading [...]

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