Tag Archives: Chief Economist

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google — VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 23, 2008 — 1 Comment

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06
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Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)
Blip.TV — (FLV file)
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It’s cool.
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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged active trader, Bo Google, business and technology consultant, CEO, conference, corporate prediction markets, Daniel Horowitz, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Schmidt, Eric Zitwewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, gas prices, Google, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Google's prediction exchange, Google's prediction markets, Hal Varian, intenal prediction markets, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, Money-Tech, O'Reilly, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Social Networks, Tech Using Prediction, Trader, United States, USD, video

BetFair-TradeFair hire Bo Cowgill in an attempt to improve their ranking in Google web search results.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 1, 2008 — 5 Comments

BetFair:

BetFair CEO David Yu:
We’re delighted to welcome Bo Cowgill in HammerSmith. Bo had a fantastic career at Google, working, in the end, under Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian. Throughout his years at Google, Bo acquired precious knowledge about the inner working of search engine technology, which will be helpful to BetFair-TradeFair for fighting annoying externalities: [...]

Posted in Humor | Also tagged Aprils Fool's Day, BetFair, BetFair CEO, Bo, Bo Cowgill, CEO, David Yu, Google, Hal Varian, Humor, Internet jokes, Internet Meister, Internet rumors, Margaret, Mark Davies, Microsoft Vista, Nick Garner, prediction markets, Princess, Robin Hanson, Search Engine, search engine technology, Search Engines, VIP gallery, web search results

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 26, 2008 — 18 Comments

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06
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VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech
Blip.TV — (FLV file)
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I’ll first publish some excerpts from the paper on Google’s enterprise prediction markets (set up [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged accuracy, active trader, advanced researcher, anonymous trading, architect, Bo Cowgill, CDA model for their markets, CEO, computer-aided facility management systems, corporate applications, corporate prediction markets, crowd-wisdom applications, demographic networks, Doug Banks, economist, efficieny, Enterprise prediction market consultant, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Schmidt, Eric Zitwewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, gas prices, Google, Google Using Prediction, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Google's prediction exchange, Google's prediction markets, GPS, Hal Varian, high profile applications, Ilya Kirnos, implicit social networks, internal prediction markets, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, language networks, Linux, Michael Giberson, open-source software, Patri Friedman, Piaw Na, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Private, private prediction markets, real estate management group, Robin Hanson, Social Networks, social/professional networks, software engineers, software-and-consulting model, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Trader, ubiquitous communication technology, United States, USD, value applications, Zubin Jelveh

The network knows what the nodes don’t.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 25, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Roger Ehrenberg:
Prediction markets and elections, run by Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth. Eric ran though a slew of data looking at sports and financial prediction markets and compared it to election prediction markets. Bottom line, sports and financial prediction markets are highly efficient and closely track actual outcomes, while election prediction markets tend to systematically underprice [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Events & Meetings, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, CI Foo, Collective Intelligence, Collective Intelligence Foo Camp, Director, Eric Zitzewitz, Foo Camp, Gary Flake, Google, GooglePlex, Greg Linden, Hal Varian, Microsoft Live Labs, MIT Center, O'Reilly, Roger Ehrenberg, Tim O'Reilly, Tom Malone, United Kingdom, United States

Bo Cowgill = Economics at Google

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 28, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Is Bo Cowgill now working for Hal Varian (Google’s Chief Economist)? The answer is…
The answer is yes. Hal has a small team now which I am on. Hal is my boss and cube mate.

Previously: Hal Varian becomes Google’s chief economist. + Meet Hal Varian, Google’s Chief Economist.

Posted in People | Also tagged Bo Cowgill, Google, Hal Varian, Meet Hal Varian

Interpreting fed funds futures

Written by James Hamilton on August 5, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Despite what you may have read elsewhere, the probability of a fed funds rate cut has increased significantly over the last few weeks.
Felix Salmon and Barry Ritholtz seemed to find more merit in this analysis from WSJ Real Time Economics than I did.
Since the stock market began to sink a week ago, the federal [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, The Global Economy | Also tagged Barry Ritholtz, Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve System, Felix Salmon, Lou Crandall, Monika Piazzesi, Wrightson Associates

Hal Varian becomes Google’s chief economist.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 20, 2007 — 1 Comment

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Via Greg Mankiw (whom you will have to read between the lines), this New York Times piece:
The View column will now be written by a rotating panel of outside economists. Besides Mr. Mankiw, it will include Alan Blinder, Judith Chevalier, Robert Shiller and Lester Thurow, as well as three of the economists who have [...]

Posted in Business, Consulting | Also tagged Alan Blinder, Google, Greg Mankiw, Hal R. Varian, Hal Varian, Judith Chevalier, Lester Thurow, Meet Hal Varian, New York Times, official business title, Professor, Robert Frank, Robert Shiller, technical data analyst, The Wall Street Journal, Tyler Cowen, Wall Street Journal

Meet Hal Varian, Google’s Chief Economist.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 20, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Hal R. Varian @ Berkeley
Hal R. Varian @ Google – no link yet
Hal R. Varian interviewed by the Wall Street Journal on his new position at Google.

Posted in People | Also tagged Google, Hal R. Varian, Meet Hal Varian, The Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal

Tag Archives: Chief Economist

BetFair-TradeFair hire Bo Cowgill in an attempt to improve their ranking in Google web search results.

The network knows what the nodes don’t.

Bo Cowgill = Economics at Google

Interpreting fed funds futures

Hal Varian becomes Google’s chief economist.

Meet Hal Varian, Google’s Chief Economist.

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