Tag Archives: Chicago Bears

Super Bowl Analysis Highlights — MR Comments

Posted on February 15, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Marginal Revolution commenters on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights: very interesting, but I disagree with his assignment of results to individual players. The results of individual plays, and their effect on the probabilities, depend on a lot … Continue reading →

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The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX

Posted on February 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Keith Jacks Gamble on Michael Abramowicz’s Gamble on Gambling on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights: I agree that the simultaneity problem and the anticipation problem are confounding factors in assessing a player’s contribution to his team’s chance of … Continue reading →

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Chicago Bears to Win the NBA Championship!!????

Posted on February 7, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

— Did you mean the Chicago… Bulls?? — Addendum: Psstt… “5.4% = $4.77“… Hmmmmm…

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The Chicago Bears didn’t go all the way, Mister Barak Obama.

Posted on February 5, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Expired TradeSports data: — Expired data for BetFair are not available —BetFair is retarded on that one. — Alas, I haven’t compared the money matched on both exchanges —did someone do it? I expect BetFair to come with a superior … Continue reading →

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Super Bowl XLI

Posted on February 3, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

TradeSports Super Bowl XLI Winner Super Bowl XLI. Indianapolis vs Chicago. Sun Feb 04 BetFair NFL Season 06/07 Super Bowl XLI Indianapolis v Chicago – Indiana Colts – Chicago Bears Super Bowl Winner – Indiana Colts – Chicago Bears

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Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl

Posted on February 2, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required): Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular … Continue reading →

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Conditional Superbowl victory probabilities

Posted on January 16, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Tradesports contracts: 70% NFL.PATRIOTS 65% NFL.COLTS 36% NFL.SAINTS 33% NFL.BEARS Cross-posted from CaveatBettor. Last of 3 posts, the prior post available here.

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Latest conditional probabilities for NFL playoff teams

Posted on January 8, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

As of noontime Mon Dec 8, the remaining 8 teams bayesian probabilities looked like this: 71% NFL.COLTS 70% NFL.PATRIOTS 67% NFL.CHARGERS 62% NFL.RAVENS 43% NFL.SEAHAWKS 41% NFL.EAGLES 35% NFL.SAINTS 32% NFL.BEARS I have included last week’s probabilities as well. Note … Continue reading →

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For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes

Posted on January 4, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes’ Theorem provides the probablity of … Continue reading →

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