Tag Archives: Cav

“I am much more aligned with InTrade than you are, Chris.”

Posted on February 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

That came from a margin trader [*] and prediction market blogger. Well, if you practice (amateur or professional) journalism (which blogging is), then I don’t see how you can be interesting to your audience if you are “aligned” with one … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Cav likes bots more than Chris does.

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

Computer-driven market making increases liquidity, which improves the price accuracy and decreases transaction costs. What’s not to love?

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged | 3 Comments

Why does Chris Masse dislike so much the play-money prediction exchanges powered by InTrade?

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

A little disambiguation note on my two previous rants: I love InTrade’s real-money prediction exchange; I love the play-money prediction exchanges —using CDA (like NewsFutures) or MSR (like Inkling Markets); I don’t mind automated market makers in play-money prediction exchanges … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Market Makers (Automated) | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Barone on America’s Three Regimes, by Morton Keller

Posted on September 6, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Barone’s take: The Civil War, the imposition of New England Yankee mores in the way described by Morton Keller, and the creation of national business and professional organizations described by Robert Wiebe in The Search for Order 1877-1910 reversed the … Continue reading →

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THE FREAKONOMICS BLOG AND THE JATROPHA PREDICTION MARKET AT POPSCI PPX NOW FORM AN X GROUP.

Posted on September 5, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Wow. History-making moment, folks. Steve Levitt: September 5, 2007, 9:33 am When Dubner Talks, People Listen By Steven D. Levitt Well, at least the folks at the PopSci Predictions Exchange listen. Last week Dubner blogged about Jatropha, a weed that … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jason Ruspini brings a little bit of sanity to the field of PLAY-MONEY prediction markets.

Posted on June 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini: I agree with Cav. We talked about this briefly a few weeks ago. Continuous payoff markets will be closer to risk-neutral than rank-order markets and so their predictions should be more accurate on average. Sure sometimes a trader … Continue reading →

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Caveat Bettor goes Hedge Fund.

Posted on June 26, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Caveat Bettor: Chris: How about forming a hedge fund partnership that facilitates event contract trades within the partnership? Jason Ruspini will maybe object that prediction markets are too thinly traded for the serious money. UPDATE: Cav has a plan… Phase … Continue reading →

Posted in Finance | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The mud at the bottom of B.C. fjords reveals that solar output drives climate change –and that we should prepare now for dangerous GLOBAL COOLING.

Posted on June 21, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Take that, Caveat Bettor. WE WILL ALL DIE DUE TO GLOBAL… COOLING… NOT GLOBAL WARMING, CAV. UPADTE: Caveat Bettor… Chris, I never said that global warming was a threat. In fact, I was planning to sell high temp contracts in … Continue reading →

Posted in Science | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Goodbye TradeSports-InTrade

Posted on February 8, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

“Bmili”: I logged in today at [TradeSports] for the second time in about three weeks or so (at least it feels like). And I came across this link posted by Cav in the pit. Todd (73nj) sums up his complaints … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , | 1 Comment