Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: candidate

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Written by Jason Ruspini on July 5, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]

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Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 14, 2008 — 2 Comments

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Asia Times:
[...] Outperforming Taiwan’s polls shouldn’t be hard. They’re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’s prediction markets did a much better job of estimating vote shares (the island’s two markets both called the Kaohsiung mayoral [...]

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NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 20, 2007 — 7 Comments

The Economist tells me I should vote for Nicolas Sarkozy. Well… if they really think he’s “the man”…
The French presidential election
France’s chance
Apr 12th 2007
From The Economist print edition
After a quarter-century of drift Nicolas Sarkozy offers the best hope of reform
No French presidential election in 50 years has looked as unpredictable [*] [?? - [...]

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Taiwain: Center for Prediction Markets – Bingo!

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 18, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Taiwain: Center for Prediction Markets
Via Steve Roman, Taipei Times:
The market’s predicted winner of the Taipei mayoral election — Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Hau Long-bin (???) — was similarly pegged by speculators as earning a vote share that missed the mark by only one percentage point. “Contrast that with media polls,” Liu said. “They were [...]

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