Tag Archives: candidate

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C. | Leave a comment

Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

Posted on March 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Asia Times: [...] Outperforming Taiwan’s polls shouldn’t be hard. They’re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’s prediction markets did … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Asia, candidate, Center for Prediction Markets, Director, Europe, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fortune-telling tool, historical prediction markets, Kaohsiung, Koleman Strumpf, Lin Jih-wen, Ma Ying-jeou, media polls, Mike Giberson, polls, prediction markets, Taiwan, United States | 2 Comments

NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

Posted on April 20, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Economist tells me I should vote for Nicolas Sarkozy. Well… if they really think he’s “the man”… The French presidential election France’s chance Apr 12th 2007 From The Economist print edition After a quarter-century of drift Nicolas Sarkozy offers … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged America, Britain, candidate, coddled public services, economist, Europe, European Central Bank, European Union, Finance, finance minister, FranÃ§ois Mitterrand, France, Francois Bayrou, interior minister, Ireland, Jacques Chirac, Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader, minister, National Front, Nicolas Sarkozy, Open Institute Of Prediction Markets, Paris railway station, Politician, President, Socialist candidate, Spain, The Economist, The Netherlands, Tony Blair, Turkey, UMP party, welfare systems, western Europe | 7 Comments

Taiwain: Center for Prediction Markets – Bingo!

Posted on March 18, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Taiwain: Center for Prediction Markets Via Steve Roman, Taipei Times: The market’s predicted winner of the Taipei mayoral election — Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Hau Long-bin (???) — was similarly pegged by speculators as earning a vote share that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged Barry Ritholtz, candidate, Center for Prediction Markets, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), Hau Long-bin, Kuomintang, media polls, Steve Roman, Taipei, Taipei Times | Leave a comment

Tag Archives: candidate

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Polls Vs. Prediction Markets

NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

Taiwain: Center for Prediction Markets – Bingo!

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