-

-

-

The Forrester executive summary:

The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous; as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

-

For information on hard-copy or electronic reprints, please contact the Client Resource Center at +1 866.367.7378, +1 617.617.5730, or resourcecenter –at– forrester –dot– com. We offer quantity discounts and special pricing for academic and nonprofit institutions.

-

-

-

-

APPENDIX #1: Prediction Markets – DRM Review

-

APPENDIX #2:

-

Here is a list of companies that provide software for prediction markets:

-

Inkling Markets – (MSR + AMM)

NewsFutures – (CDA + optional AMM + SR)

Xpree – (MSR + AMM)

Zocalo – (CDA + MSR + AMM) – (open-source)

Nosco – (CDA + MSR + AMM)

QMarkets – (MSR + AMM)

Ask Markets – (MSR + AMM)

Exago Markets – (CDA + optional AMM)

Gexid – (?)

ProKons – (?)

Spigit – (?)

HSX Virtual Markets – (Virtual Specialist + AMM)

HubDub – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

Yahoo!‘s Prediction Exchange – (MSR + AMM + DPMM) – (not licensed)

Google‘s Prediction Exchange – (CDA) – (not licensed)

MicroSoft PredictionPoint – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

InTrade – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

TradeSports – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

Iowa Electronic Markets – (CDA) – (not licensed)

HedgeStreet – (CDA) – (not licensed)

TradeFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

BetFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

Trading Technologies International – (CDA) – (not for event derivatives)

-

Here’s a list of prediction market consultants:

-

Robin Hanson – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)

• Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
• “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

• Adam Siegel
• Nathan Kontny

NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

• Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Maurice Balick

Xpree – (California, U.S.A.)

• Mat Fogarty

Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

• Chris Hibbert (Software architect / Zocalo project manager) — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Chris Hibbert’s personal website — Chris Hibbert’s personal blog —
• Chris Hibbert’s CommerceNet profile — (His stint there ended in mid 2006.)

Justin Wolfers – (University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

• Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
• The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

Koleman Strumpf – (University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

• Koleman Strumpf — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
• Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
• “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

• Jesper Krogstrup
• Oliver Bernhard Pedersen

Qmarkets – (Israel)

• Noam Danon

Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

• George Tziralis — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

HP Services & HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

• Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
• Information Dynamics Lab — Internal prediction markets
• BRAIN – (Behaviorallly Robust Aggregation of Information in Networks) — Scoring Rules (i.e., non-trading technique)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – Senior Fellow & Director
• Kay-Yut Chen -
• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Prediction market consultancy firm
• Movie business

IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (CalTech Inst., California, U.S.A.)

Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

• Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

ProKons – (Germany, E.U.)

• Peter Gollowitsch

Exago Markets – (Portugal, E.U.)

• Pedro Da Cunha

NimaniX – (Israel)

• Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

Michael Giberson – (Texas, U.S.A.)

• Michael Giberson (Energy Economist – Center for Energy Commerce, Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University) — Post archive at Midas Oracle
• Knowledge Problem – Blog on economics, energy policy, more.

Other Consulting Firms

McKinsey – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”
• The Promise Of Prediction Markets – by McKinsey – 2008-04-XX

Accenture – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Gartner – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Forrester – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”
• Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – 2008-07-14

The Boston Consulting Group – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

CapGemini – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

KPMG – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Price Waterhouse Cooper – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Ernst & Young – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

Deloitte – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

IBM – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

EDS – (U.S.A.)

• Google Search for “prediction markets”

-

US scientists have invented a pill that can boost memory.

-

Invented by Dr Gary Lynch from the University of California.

-

-

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):

Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade market data in the past, a service that Intrade intends to continue, for all study leads to an increase in transparency and understanding of event markets. It seems that the leading event market academics make no distinction between the benefits derived from academic owned markets like Iowa Electronic Markets and commercial market platforms like Intrade.

Yet many academics, with some notable exceptions, do temper their policy prescription to suggest a “safe harbor” for academic sites where research might be more generally available. As noted above Intrade has gladly supplied its event market data, typically free of charge to most of the leading prediction market academics and their students, and we are committed to encouraging the future study of event markets by continuing to supply our event market data free of charge or at very deep discounts. The academics that study event markets do a great service in developing our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of event markets. Some commentators suggest that market liquidity and breadth typically benefit all event market stakeholders. Thus far commercial platforms like Intrade seem to be providing the greatest depth and breadth in event markets.

As Intrade has been a staunch supporter of event market academic study, and supplies greater depth and liquidity in its event markets than any other platform, it seems strange not to be a preferred purveyor. Perhaps the predominant reason many academics have held back from advocating and treating all event markets alike is a sense that initiatives to clarify or unwind the legislation restraining the optimal development of event markets is unlikely to be achievable. It seems many academics and commentators suggest a slow bureaucratic and pragmatic caution rather than focus on the optimal result. While the optimal result may be more challenging to achieve, for consistency, for better price discovery for the benefit of all, as well as for the development of Intrade, we encourage CFTC to apply common goals, objectives and standards for all participants.

-

Prediction Market Industry Association – (PMIA)

4) Lobby for a clear legal and regulatory environment conducive to the productive adoption of prediction markets by individuals, firms, and governments, and ensuring free access to these markets by traders.

-

The PMIA’s first board is comprised of:

[...]
Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
Justin Wolfers (Wharton School – University of Pennsylvania)

-

-

It seems that both will, independently of each other, write to the CFTC about the legalization of the “event markets” (here are the comments to the CFTC) —a bad term for the “non-hedgeable event derivative markets” (which is also, probably, a term that is quite awful to your ears ). What to expect from them? (WARNING: This is highly speculative.)

-

TOM W. BELL

• He will state the libertarian point of view —laissez faire, laissez aller. - [DISCLOSURE: I am a mid-core libertarian myself, so I like that.]
• Overall, he will try to put up a basket of legal hacks —to establish that the real-money prediction markets should be as free as possible.
• In particular, he will try to make the point that “event markets” should be covered by the laws governing “notes” —not by the laws governing “contracts”.
• By doing so, he will tell the CFTC to go fugging themselves —since the CFTC is allegedly about “contracts”, not about “notes”.

-

JASON RUSPINI

• He will state that all the real-money prediction markets should be covered by the CFTC.
• He will navigate within the legal framework that the CFTC has established in their “concept release”. – [See this document from the Arnold & Porter lawyers, if you wanna know what's a "concept release", in the mind of the CFTC regulators. - PDF file.]
• He will be very careful not to offense those bureaucrats.

-

TOM W. BELL vs JASON RUSPINI

• It’s great that the libertarian point of view is elaborated and disseminated to these bureaucrats. However, the CFTC is an agency, not the US Supreme Court Of Justice —and the fact that Tom W. Bell is right does not mean that he will prevail.
• Jason Ruspini’s approach is extremely reasonable: he adopts the enemy’s point of view, and, from within, tries to maneuver the regulatory barriers to create as much room as possible. Also, Jason Ruspini will address only the CFTC questions which he grasps well. (Contrast that with some who spread themselves too thin, and answer all the CFTC questions, even those where they have no expertise or experience. Their answers are, and, will be totally ignored. It’s not what you say that is important; it’s what you say in relation with who you are to say that.) I’m pulling for Jason Ruspini’s approach.

-

TAKEAWAY

• If Jason Ruspini does not fuck it up, he has the potentiality to influence positively the CFTC, and to become one of the great leaders of the field of prediction markets. Let’s wish for that. Our field needs courageous men (and women) with the right political compass and the sense of pragmatism.

-

-

THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES:

- CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.

- In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

- A young economist rebuts the American Enterprise Institute.

-

BACKGROUND INFO:

- CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts… notably how they define “event markets”, how they are going to extend their “exemption” to other IEM-like prediction exchanges, and how they framed their questions to the public. Here are the comments sent to the CFTC.

- The Arnold & Porter lawyers explain the meaning of the CFTC’s concept release on “event markets”. — (PDF file)

- The Schulte & Roth & Zabel lawyers’ takes. — (PDF file)

- The Sullivan & Cromwell lawyers’ takes. — (PDF file)

- What Vernon Smith told the CFTC.

- The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize the real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

-

APPENDIX:

Paul Wolfowitz’s profile at the American Enterprise Institute

- How the neo-cons drove the United States of America into the unecessary Iraq war

-

I answer the first part of question 14, “No,” (and thus need not answer the second part). I doubt that the CFTC wants to hear that sort of reply, frankly; I instead suspect that it wants a legal excuse to avoid the sort of political firestorm that followed the Pentagon’s proposal to create a Policy Analysis Market that included claims about assassinations and terrorist events. My draft answer to question 14 explains why I’m willing to risk disappointing the CFTC:

The CFTC should not forbid trading in claims based on assassinations, terrorist activities, or other criminal acts. Because event markets would offer only relatively thin and traceable trading, they would not offer an attractive investment option to anybody planning to profit from wrongdoing. A would-be terrorist would risk revealing both his plans and his identity if, for instance, he invested in a contract predicting another 9/11. He would instead find it more safe and profitable to simply short certain publicly traded stocks.

Furthermore, event markets in terrorist or criminal acts might benefit the public by revealing life-saving information. Suppose, for instance, that an anthropologist’s study of corrido culture convinced her that narcoterrorists had begun planning military raids on border checkpoints in Arizona and California. If she had the opportunity to buy terrorist event claims, she might both profit from her research and tip us all off about looming trouble. Sound public policy suggests that we should encourage that sort of trading—not forbid it.

To judge from their reactions to the Policy Analysis Market proposed by the Pentagon in 2003, politicians might need to learn more about the benefits of using trading to help predict assassinations or other terrorist events. That poses a public relations problem, however—not a legal one. The CFTC thus has no sound reason to presumptively forbid trading in contracts related to such events.

Notably, my answer to question 14 differs sharply from the answer offered by Jed Christiansen. He said, “There should never be any incentive to break a law, so there should never be any contracts that would pay someone if a law was broken.” I disagree, of course, but I thank him for stimulating me to offer an alternative take.

[Crossposted at Agoraphilia and Midas Oracle.]

IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets

Research Papers

Basics

Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g.

- Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting, Management Science, 49, 1310-1326. [Full text]
- Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. (2006). Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice, New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics and the Law (in press). [Full text]
- Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction Markets, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 107-126. [Full text]
- An overview and classification of 152 studies on prediction markets, published between 1991 and 2006, is provided by
Tziralis, G. & Tatsiopoulos (2007). Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review, Journal of Prediction Markets, 1, 75-91. [Full text]

Evidence on the accuracy of prediction markets

This section summarizes research that analyzes the relative performance of prediction markets and other forecasting methods.

Markets vs. polls (election forecasting)

- Berg, J., Nelson, F. & Rietz, T. (2008). Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 283-298. [full text]
- Erikson R. S. & Wlezien C. (2007). Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? Public Opinion Quarterly, forthcoming. [full text]
- Stix, G. (2008): When Markets Beat the Polls, Scientific American Magazine, March 2008. [Abstract]

Markets vs. unaided experts and groups

- Pennock, D. M., Lawrence, S., Giles, C.L. & Nielsen, F.A. (2000). The Power of Play: Efficiency and Forecast Accuracy in Web Market Games, Technical Report 2000-168, NEC Research Institute. [full text]
- For predicting Oscar Award winners, Pennock et al. (2000) compared prices of the Hollywood Stock exchange to expert judgments of five movie columnists. On the day the experts revealed their forecasts, only one of them was better than the market predictions. From the day after, the market outperformed all experts as well as the expert consensus.
- Servan-Schreiber, E. J., Wolfers, J., Pennock, D. M. & Galebach, B. (2004). Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14, 243-251. [full text]
- For predicting the results of NFL games, Servan-Schreiber et al. (2004) compared the forecasts of two markets to those of 1,947 self-selected individuals. At the end of the season, the markets ranked 6th and 8th compared to the individuals. The human average – which would be the outcome of a classical survey – ranked 39th.

Markets vs. other forecasting methods

- Chen, K. Y., Plott, C. R. (2002). Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem, Social Science Working Paper No.1131, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena. [full text]
- For forecasting sales figures, Chen and Plott (2002) reported on an internal market at Hewlett-Packard that beat the official forecasts of the company in 6 out of 8 events.
- Jones Jr., R. J. (2008). The state of presidential election forecasting – The 2004 experience, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 308-319. [Abstract]
- Jones (2008) analyzed the forecasts of IEM’s vote-share market for the 2004 election and compared them to traditional polls, a Delphi expert survey, regression models and a combination of all four approaches, the Pollyvote. He concludes that in comparison with most methods of forecasting the popular vote, the IEM was the superior performer.Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting, Management Science, 49, 1310-1326. [Full text]
- Spann and Skiera (2003) compared forecast accuracy of an internal market at a large German mobile phone operator. They found that the market forecasts outperformed were more accurate than four extrapolation models (arithmetic mean, geometric mean, linear trend and exponential trend).

Corporate Markets

- Chen, K.-Y. & Plott, C. R. (2002). Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem. Social Science Working Paper No.1131, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena. [Full text]
- Cowgill, B., Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. (2008). Using prediction markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google, working paper. [Full text]
- Ortner, G. (1997). Forecasting Markets – An Industrial Application: Part I, working paper, TU Vienna. [Full text]
- Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting, Management Science, 49, 1310-1326. [Full text]

Decision Markets

- Hanson, R. (1999). Decision Markets, IEEE Intelligent Systems, 14, 16-19.

Manipulation

- [Except] Hansen et al. (1998), most empirical studies report that manipulative attacks on result accuracy have not been successful historically (Rhode and Strumpf 2006), in the laboratory (Hanson et al. 2006), and in the field (Camerer 1998).
- Camerer, C. (1998): Can Asset Markets Be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting, Journal of Political Economy, 106(3), 457-482. [Abstract]
- Hansen, J., Schmidt, C. & Strobel, M. (2004). Manipulation in Political Stock Markets – Preconditions and Evidence, Applied Economics Letters, 11, 459-463. [Abstract]
- Hanson, R., Oprea, R. & Porter, D. (2006). Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 60, 449-459. [full text]
- Rhode, P. W., and Strumpf, K. S. (2006). Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data, Working Paper, University of North Carolina(2006). [full text]

-

More research papers on prediction markets

-

Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)

-

• Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James Annan – (Global Environment Modelling Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
• Werner Antweiler – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Kenneth J. Arrow – Kenneth Arrow – (Economics Department, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tom W. Bell – Tom Bell – (Law School, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Joyce E. Berg – Joyce Berg – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Accounting, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Borghesi – (Finance, Texas State University at San Marcos, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Kay-Yut Chen – (Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, HP Labs, HP, California, U.S.A.)
• Yiling Chen – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Crampton – (Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, New Zealand) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Ely Dahan – (Marketing, Anderson School, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Anita Elberse – (Marketing, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Leslie R. Fine – Leslie Fine – (Information Dynamics Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Gary William Flake – Gary W. Flake – Gary Flake – (MicroSoft, U.S.A.)
• Robert Forsythe – (Dean, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida, Florida, U.S.A.) — Previously: (Economics, Iowa Electronic Markets, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Lance Fortnow – Lance J. Fortnow – (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Keith Jacks Gamble – Keith Gamble – (Economics (University of California at Berkeley) – California, U.S.A. — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Michael Gorham – (IIT Center for Financial Markets, Stuart School of Business, Illinois Institute of Technology, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Previously: (CFTC)
• Thomas S. Gruca – Thomas Gruca – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Marketing, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Refet Gurkaynak – (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)
• Friedrich August Von Hayek — R.I.P. — The market as an information aggregation tool: The Use of Knowledge in Society —
• Robert W. Hahn – Robert Hahn – (Executive Director, Reg-Markets Center, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James D. Hamilton – James Hamilton – (Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego – California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robin Hanson – Robin D. Hanson – (Economics, James M. Buchanan Center, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• M. Todd Henderson – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Chris Hibbert – (Software Architect, Zocalo Project Manager, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles Holt – Charles A. Holt – (Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – (Social Computing Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Frédéric Koessler – (Economics, Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, France, E.U.)
• Anthony M. Kwasnica – Anthony Kwasnica – (Business Economics, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Smeal College of Business Administration, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Nicolas Lambert – (Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• John O. Ledyard – John Ledyard – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• Andrew Leigh – (Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia)
• Steven Levitt – Steve Levitt – Steven D. Levitt – (Economics, Director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Saul Levmore – (Law School, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Robert E. Litan – Robert Litan – (Vice President for Research and Policy, Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Malone – Thomas Malone – Tom Malone – (MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Charles F. Manski – Charles Manski – (College of Arts and Sciences, Norwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Adam Meirowitz – (Department of Politics, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A.)
• Paul Milgrom – (Department of Economics, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tracy Mullen – (Information Sciences and Technology, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Forrest Nelson – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• George R. Neumann – George Neumann – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Ryan Oprea – Profile – (Director of the LEEPS laboratory, Economics, University of California at Santa Cruz, California, U.S.A.)
• Gerhard Ortner – (University of Applied Sciences, Austria, E.U.)
• Marco Ottaviani – (Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (Economics Department, London Business School, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• David Paton – (Industrial Economics, Business School, Nottingham University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• David M. Pennock – David Pennock – (Principal Research Scientist, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• David Porter – (Economics and Finance, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Todd Proebsting – Todd A. Proebsting – (Microsoft & University of Arizona, U.S.A.)
• Russ Ray – (Finance, College of Business, University of Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.)
• Daniel Reeves – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Paul W. Rhode – Paul Rhode – (US Economic History, College of Management, The University of Arizona, Arizona, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)
• Thomas A. Rietz – Thomas Rietz – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Finance, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Roll – (University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Ross – Thomas Ross – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Rahul Sami – (School of Information, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Sam L. Savage – Sam Savage – (Consulting Professor, Stanford U., California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Thomas C. Schelling – Thomas Schelling – (Economics, School of Public Affair, University of Maryland, Maryland, U.S.A.)
• Emile Servan-Schreiber – (NewsFutures, New York City, New York, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robert J. Shiller – Robert Shiller – Profile – (Economics, Yale University, Connecticut, U.S.A.)
• Bernd Skiera – (Electronic Commerce, Goethe University, Germany, E.U.)
• Vernon L. Smith – Vernon Smith – (Economics, Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Erik Snowberg – (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Soon at CalTech
• Peter Norman Sorensen – (Finance, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, E.U.)
• Martin Spann – (Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, E.U.)
• Koleman Strumpf – Koleman S. Strumpf – (Economics, School of Business, University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.) – Formerly: University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Cass Sunstein – Cass R. Sunstein – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• James Surowiecki – (The Wisdom Of Crowds) – (New York, U.S.A.)
• Paul C. Tetlock – Paul Tetlock – (Finance, Business School, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Philip Tetlock – Philip E. Tetlock – (Leadership, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Hal R. Varian – Hal Varian – (Chief Economist, Google, California, U.S.A.) — Formerly: (Haas School of Business, Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Dorina Tila – (Economics, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Leighton Vaughan-Williams – (Economics and Finance, Business School, Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• Michael Wellman – Michael P. Wellman – (Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Justin Wolfers – Justin J. Wolfers – (Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Zitzewitz – Eric W. Zitzewitz – (Economics, Dartmouth College, Massachusetts, USA) – Formerly: (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

(with thanks to Chris Hibbert of Zocalo)

-

-
Iowa Electronic Markets – (IEM) – (Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)

Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science – (ICES) – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)

Economic Science Institute – (ESI) – (Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)

HP Labs – (Hewlett-Packard, Palo Alto, California, U.S.A.)

Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science – (EEPS) – (CalTech, California, U.S.A.)

Vecon Lab – (University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)

MIT Center for Collective Intelligence – (CCI) – (Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)

Yahoo! Research Labs – (Yahoo!, Pasadena, California, U.S.A.)

Laboratory for Economics Management and Auctions – (LEMA) – (Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

MicroSoft Research – (MicroSoft, Redmont, Washington, U.S.A.)

Google‘s Economics Group – (Google, Mountain View, California, U.S.A.)

Center for Prediction Markets – (National Chengchi University, Taiwan)

Knowledge Lab – (Witten/Herdecke U., Cologne, Germany, E.U.)

-

Contact me to submit other entries.

-

-

-

Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

• Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Nathan Kontny

-

NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

• Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Maurice Balick

-

Xpree – (U.S.A.)

• Mat Fogarty — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

• Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
• Information Dynamics Lab — Internal prediction markets
• BRAIN – (Behaviorallly Robust Aggregation of Information in Networks) — Scoring Rules (i.e., non-trading technique)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – Senior Fellow & Director
• Kay-Yut Chen -
• Google Search for “prediction markets”

-

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Prediction market consultancy firm
• Movie business

-

Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

• Chris Hibbert (Software architect / Zocalo project manager) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Chris Hibbert’s personal website — Chris Hibbert’s personal blog —
• Chris Hibbert’s CommerceNet profile — (His stint there ended in mid-2006.)

-

Robin Hanson – (George Mason U., Virginia, U.S.A.)

• Robin Hanson — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
• “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

-

Justin Wolfers – (U. of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

• Justin Wolfers — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
• The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

-

Koleman Strumpf – (U. of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

• Koleman Strumpf — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
• “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

-

Michael Giberson – (Virginia, U.S.A.)

• Michael Giberson (energy economist, who is also an expert in prediction markets) — Post archives at Midas Oracle
• Knowledge Problem – Blog on economics, energy policy, more.

-

Robert Hahn – (American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.)

• Robert Hahn — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robert Hahn does consulting focused on improving decision making in the private and public sector. “This work builds on our evolving understanding of prediction markets and other economic tools.”

-

IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (CalTech Inst., California, U.S.A.)

-

Mercury Research and Consulting – (United Kingdom, E.U.)

• Jed Christiansen — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

• George Tziralis — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

• Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

• Jesper Krogstrup — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Oliver Bernhard Pedersen

-

Qmarkets – (Israel)

• Noam Danon — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

ProKons – (Germany)

• Peter Gollowitsch

-

Hive Insight – (Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. & London, U.K., E.U.)

• Robert Wilburn (ex-NewsFutures)

-

Foresight Markets – (??)

• BPH Technologies

-

NimaniX – (Israel)

• Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

-

PrediCom – (London, United Kingdom, E.U.)

• Mikael Edholm

-

May 19, 2008

Dr. Eric Schmidt
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Google, Inc.
1600 Amphitheatre Parkway
Mountain View, CA 94043

Dear Dr. Schmidt:

YouTube is being used to share videos produced by al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist groups. The purpose of this letter is to request that Google implement its own policy against this offensive material, remove these videos from YouTube, and prevent them from reappearing.

Today, Islamist terrorist organizations rely extensively on the Internet to attract supporters and advance their cause. The framework for much of this Internet campaign is described in a bipartisan staff report released last week by the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (“Committee”), which I am privileged to chair, titled Violent Islamist Extremism, the Internet, and the Homegrown Terrorist Threat. The report explains, in part, how al-Qaeda created and manages a multi-tiered online media operation that produces content intended to enlist followers in countries all over the world, including the United States. Central to this media campaign is the branding of content with an icon or logo to guarantee authenticity that the content was produced by al-Qaeda or allied organizations like al-Qaeda in Iraq, Ansar al-Islam (a.k.a Ansar al-Sunnah) or al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb. All of these groups have been designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) by the Department of State.

Searches on YouTube return dozens of videos branded with an icon or logo identifying the videos as the work of one of these Islamist terrorist organizations. A great majority of these videos document horrific attacks on American soldiers in Iraq or Afghanistan. Others provide weapons training, speeches by al-Qaeda leadership, and general material intended to radicalize potential recruits.

In other words, Islamist terrorist organizations use YouTube to disseminate their propaganda, enlist followers, and provide weapons training – activities that are all essential to terrorist activity. According to testimony received by our Committee, the online content produced by al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist organizations can play a significant role in the process of radicalization, the end point of which is the planning and execution of a terrorist attack. YouTube also, unwittingly, permits Islamist terrorist groups to maintain an active, pervasive, and amplified voice, despite military setbacks or successful operations by the law enforcement and intelligence communities.

YouTube posts “community guidelines” for users to follow, but it does not appear that the company is enforcing these guidelines to the extent they would apply to this content. For example, the community guidelines state that “[g]raphic or gratuitous violence is not allowed. If your video shows someone getting hurt, attacked, or humiliated, don’t post it.” Many of the videos produced by one of the production arms of al-Qaeda show attacks on U.S. forces in which American soldiers are injured and, in some cases, killed. Nevertheless, those videos remain available for viewing on YouTube. At the same time, the guidelines do not prohibit the posting of content that can be readily identified as produced by al-Qaeda or another FTO.

I ask you, therefore, to immediately remove content produced by Islamist terrorist organizations from YouTube. This should be a straightforward task since so many of the Islamist terrorist organizations brand their material with logos or icons identifying their provenance. In addition, please explain what changes Google plans to make to the YouTube community guidelines to address violent extremist material and how Google plans to enforce those guidelines to prevent the content from reappearing.

Protecting our citizens from terrorist attacks is a top priority for our government. The private sector can help us do that. By taking action to curtail the use of YouTube to disseminate the goals and methods of those who wish to kill innocent civilians, Google will make a singularly important contribution to this important national effort.

Thank you for your immediate attention to this critical matter and I look forward to your response.

Sincerely,

Joseph I. Lieberman (ID-CT)
Chairman, Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs