Tag Archives: Brian Galebach

Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.

Via our good friends at Forecasting Principles American Scientist: Forrest Nelson, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, helped to found the Iowa Electronic Markets. He and his colleagues faced considerable push-back from their university’s lawyers in setting … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Pop Sci outputs a flawed and biased explainer on prediction markets.

Pop Sci defends InTrade’s November 2006 record: The betting site [*] intrade.com offered a security that would pay out $100 if the Republicans held their majority in the U.S. Senate and nothing if they lost. For weeks, it had been … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?

Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? – (PDF) – by Emile Servan-Schreiber, David Pennock, Justin Wolfers and Brian Galebach – 2004-09-00 In the spirit of that paper, I was thinking of a comparison between BetFair (real-money prediction markets) and NewsFutures (play-money … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment